RADIO
Dom Petrillo looks at running backs who have been underutilized on their teams and have not produced as well as expected in fantasy football leagues. These RB could be sleepers or buy-low values in 2018.
Every season there are some players we expect to break out. Some of them don’t for one simple reason - the team doesn’t play them over inferior players.
Whether it be due to contract numbers or coach’s preference, teams stick with a player long after it is obvious someone else is better. In years past, we have seen this in the form of Chris Johnson over David Johnson, Kirk Cousins over Robert Griffin and of course Drew Bledsoe over Tom Brady. OK, who really saw that last one coming?
Most talented players who are held down are running backs, therefore this is where we will concentrate for the purposes of this article. When it comes to wide receivers, there are usually multiple players on the field, so they can show their skill set more than running backs who are in a backup role. This allows them to get the notice they deserve and see more playing time. With running backs, most teams employ one on the field at a time, so it is more difficult to get the needed chance for a back to show their potential in the offense. Let us now look at some of these situations in which the better player is not getting the usage needed to fully break out.
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Baltimore Ravens Backfield
Coming into the season, the prevailing sentiment was Alex Collins was the back to own in this backfield. This led him to a fourth-round draft pick in most fantasy drafts. Along with this, Javorius "Buck" Allen was rarely drafted as even Kenneth Dixon was being drafted ahead of him in Baltimore. If the first quarter of the season has shown us anything, Allen and not Collins is the player to own here.
Although only having 62 rushing yards on 26 carries for a paltry 2.4 Y/A average, Allen is also the passing-down back where he has added 15 receptions in the first four games of the season while adding a touchdown to go along with his three rushing touchdowns.
Collins, on the other hand, has 152 yards on 45 carries for two rushing touchdowns. Even with double the carries and more than double the rushing yards, Collins has two fewer fantasy points on the season than does Allen. This is a direct result of both Allen’s pass-catching acumen as well, as the fact Collins has fumbled the ball. This fact should also allow Allen more opportunity with the ball moving forward.
The Ravens finally seem to be coming around on Allen as his snap share has risen each week from less than 40% in Week 1 to over 55% percent in Week 4. If this trend continues, Buck Allen and not Alex Collins will be the Ravens running back to own by the end of the 2018 season. Don’t be surprised if you see that some teams who make the championship game have Allen in their lineup, as they ride him to a victory while Collins owners are left wondering what happened.
Seattle Seahawks Backfield
So, what is Seattle’s actual plan? First, they bring in quite possibly the worst offensive coordinator in football to try to improve running the ball. Then, instead of getting linemen to be able to run, they use their first-round pick on a running back in Rashaad Penny who not only cannot block, but it turns out cannot really run either.
This said, which is the better option? Is it Chris Carson, the oft-injured but talented back who had 34 touches in Week 3 against the Cowboys - or is it Mike Davis, the under-utilized back who in the absence of Carson in Week 4 had 21 carries for 101 yards and two rushing touchdowns, which was complemented by four catches for 23 yards in the passing game. I would like to say there is a clear choice here, but the answer is there really isn’t, other than it is not Penny.
As the other backs have shown more ability, Penny has seen his snaps drop from over 60% in Week 1 to below 15% in Week 3 and Week 4. Although Davis may be the more talented back, the running back which could and should break out of the pack is Chris Carson. Whether it be Carson or Davis though, try and look somewhere else as the offensive line is going to get Russell Wilson killed and thus ruin value for any running back in Seattle.
New York Jets Backfield
This offseason, after the retirement of Matt Forte, the Jets went out and signed Isaiah Crowell to a free agent contract. They did so for two main reasons. Crowell has yet to miss a game in his career so, like Forte in his early days, he is durable. The other reason is, no matter how much he shows them, the Jets just do not believe in Bilal Powell and will not give him a full share in the offense.
In a committee scenario again this season, Powell has still shown he is the better player. While Crowell is scoring the touchdowns and has his niche in the offense, Powell is showing to be the better all-around back who is able to gain yards and keep drives going even with rookie Sam Darnold behind center.
In the first four weeks of the year, Isaiah Crowell has 172 yards and four touchdowns on 42 rushes while only having 24 receiving yards on five catches. When looking at his rushing numbers you may think that his 4.1 Y/A average is solid. But when you take into account that he has a 62-yard carry in the mix, his 41 other rushes only average 2.68 Y/A which is not nearly as good.
Looking at Bilal Powell in three fewer rushing attempts, he only has seven fewer yards than Crowell. On 39 rushes he has 165 yards, which is an average of 4.2 Y/A. Even if you take out his longest run of 21 yards, you still get a Y/A of 3.8 with 144 yards on 38 carries. While Crowell has only managed a measly 24 receiving yards with five catches on seven targets, Powell has 10 receptions on 16 targets and has quadruple the receiving yardage at 105.
This means that with less snaps, Powell is proving to be more reliable, and more productive than the starter Crowell. The Jets are not in win-now mode, this is for sure, but they need to start using Powell more as he is the better option. It's not just for the team, but for the development of Darnold who needs the pass-catching back to be able to get the ball out and avoid sacks as he learns the NFL game. Well, as good as he can be on the Jets.
There are players who deserve a chance, and if given one they would most likely flourish. These are just a few of these players whom would be even more fantasy relevant if their teams would just realize what us, the fantasy football fans, do. They are good, so coaches, please we implore you: stop holding them back!
