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Even though Rob Manfred and the MLB owners decided to prolong the lockout and already cancel some regular-season games, we are drafting. I had the pleasure of partaking in the 12-team mixed league draft for Tout Wars on Tuesday. It is my second year in the league, and it is the second year for this specific league. It began last year as a bit of an experiment as it uses on-base percentage (OBP) instead of batting average (all Tout Wars leagues do the same), as well as using innings pitched (IP) instead of wins and saves and holds (SVHLD) instead of saves.
The league format is like no other league I have participated in, so it makes drafting the league much different. Not to mention it was the first live draft with a one-minute clock I have participated in all season. So it was great to get back in the “real” draft action, but also the usual eye-opener that the draft game needs to be fine-tuned as we get closer to the season.
Last season, I finished fifth in the league, and with the KDS system in play, I somehow landed the second overall pick. To prepare for the draft, I used the Fangraphs auction calculator to create dollar values for each player based on the different league settings since the drafts and ADP most of us have been participating in will be of no help for this draft. Now that we have gone over my approach let’s look at each pick with some quick thoughts on why I made the pick and how the team looks overall.
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1.2- Juan Soto (OF - WAS)
When talking about OBP, there are not much better in baseball than Juan Soto. Last season he finished with a .465 OBP and has now had an OBP of .401 or better in all four MLB seasons. Soto also contributed to the power department with 29 home runs last year and 34 in 2019. He also has 110 runs or more and 95 RBI or more over the previous two full MLB seasons. Some say Soto does not run enough, and I guess that is true based on some of the significant stolen base assets in the first round, but nine steals last year and 12 in 2019 works quite well with his other categorial contributions. Soto is one of the best options in this format and was a no-brainer at pick two for me. This also makes Soto a member of Team Bubba in Tout Wars in back-to-back seasons.
2.11- Luis Robert (OF - CWS)
As the draft season has worn on, I have become a bigger and bigger fan of Robert. Unfortunately, Robert suffered a serious hamstring injury in 2021, and he was not supposed to return but did and ended up having a solid season. Over 65 games, he hit 13 home runs, stole six bases, and hit .338 with a .378 OBP. He has hit for power throughout the minors and showcased speed to go with a lovely OBP. Robert also improved his plate discipline, dropping his strikeout rate to 20.6%. If Robert stays healthy and continues the plate discipline gains, he could have a massive 2022 season and bring 30/20 upside to your fantasy lineup.
3.2- Aaron Nola (SP - PHI)
I almost made a hazardous pick here, but I did not. I almost drafted Jacob deGrom, but my risk-averse brain, especially in the early rounds, stepped in and I went with Nola. It was a significant problem, but Nola is a much safer option and great for this format. Nola strikes out many batters with a K-rate better than 26% since 2017, and that also goes with an outstanding K-BB% of 20% (elite) or higher in three of the last four seasons. Lastly, I love Nola for this format because of his ability to rack up innings. He threw 180.2 innings last season, and in 2018 and 2019, he threw over 200 innings each year. Nola will go deep in games and rack up the K’s, which I am looking for in my early starting pitchers.
4.11- J.T. Realmuto (C - PHI)
I usually like to get one of the top four of five catchers in each draft. However, with the pick of Soto, I wanted a few more steals from my catching position, so I went with JTR. Last season, JTR stole 13 bases, his second double-digit steals season. 13 steals from your catcher is a potential game-changer and allows for some flexibility throughout the draft. JTR will help in all five categories, and if he stays healthy could give 20/10 from the catcher’s position.
5.2- Jose Berrios (SP - TOR)
Did someone say reliable innings eater? Look no further than Berrios. Most see Berrios as a boring pitcher, but I love boring if you like 190+ innings with a sub-four ERA. Berrios has thrown 190 or more innings in the last three full seasons while also having an ERA below 3.90 in each of the previous four full seasons. Some complain about his strikeout rates, but he has had at least a 22.6% K-rate since 2017 and has increased his K-rate to above 25% in the last two seasons. Some were concerned when Berrios was traded to the Jays, but he made 12 starts with the Jays, throwing 70.1 innings with 78 strikeouts and a 3.58 ERA. SIGN ME UP!!!!
6.11- Jonathan India (2B - CIN)
India’s 2021 started poorly, but a second chance was all it took. Next thing you know, India wins the NL Rookie of the Year. He finished the season with 21 home runs and 12 steals, which is excellent, but his plate discipline makes him outstanding. He walked 11.3% of the time, a trait he showcased throughout the minors. The walk rate plus the overall hit tool led to 98 runs scored (a stat not thought about enough) and an outstanding .376 OBP. India should once again lead-off for the Reds, which will lead to many runs scored, steals, and likely 20+ home runs. There’s an argument that India should be going even higher in drafts.
7.2- Lance Lynn (SP - CWS)
Back to our inning eaters to anchor the rotation. Last season Lynn only pitched 157 innings due to two short stints on the IL. Before last season, Lynn had thrown 175+ innings in five of his last six full seasons. In each of those five seasons, he had an ERA below 4.00 and a K-rate over 23% in four seasons. The White Sox will look to ride their horse again, and I will join that party with my SP3.
8.11- Jesse Winker (OF - CIN)
Did someone say OBP? Oh yeah, insert Winker. He has had an OBP of .357 or better in all five MLB seasons. He is a great anchor to pair with Soto on any OBP team. Winker also brings plus power with 24 home runs. The trouble with Winker is staying on the field as he only played in 110 games last season and 113 in 2019. He struggles with LHP, but they have not platooned him full time, and the damage he does versus RHP is tremendous. Winker will not steal many bases, but he will be on a ton, hit home runs, and help with runs and RBI.
9.2- Dansby Swanson (SS - ATL)
Swanson is one of the more underrated shortstops in fantasy baseball. He hit 27 home runs last season after hitting 10 in the 60-game season and 17 in 2019. Besides the increased power, Swanson has been a solid source of runs scored and stolen bases in recent seasons. He can be a 20/10 source with an OBP of .320 or better. I believe we have not seen the best of Swanson yet, and I am looking forward to him taking another step forward in 2022.
10.11- Nathan Eovaldi (SP - BOS)
After injury-riddled seasons in 2019 and 2020, Eovaldi had a massive 2021 season. He threw 182.1 innings for the Red Sox with a 3.75 ERA, 3.37 xERA, and 3.48 xFIP. The innings and ratios were great, but Eovaldi also had a 25.5% K-rate and 20.9% K-BB. Eovaldi pitched at an ace level in 2021, and I am all about Eovaldi and his talent as my SP4 heading into the season.
11.2- Jake Cronenworth (1B/2B/SS - SD)
It’s Rake Cronenworth season!!!! I have written about my concerns for his draft price, but he fell in this draft, so I will gladly take him on the squad. He hit 21 home runs last season, which I believe will regress some, but the projections still have him hitting 17/18 home runs. He will contribute nicely in runs and RBI while also throwing in a few steals. Cronenworth was also quite productive last season with a .283 BABIP, which is much lower than his norm, which means an overall more productive season could be on tap in 2022. Lastly, the Padres lineup is not great, leading to more at-bats in the middle of the order where he thrived last season.
12.11- Lourdes Gurriel Jr. (OF - TOR)
I am a Gurriel truther, and I could not pass on the Jays outfielder in round 12. He has back-to-back full seasons with 20+ home runs and will be a significant run producer with the Jays. With George Springer likely moving up in the order with the departure of Marcus Semien, we could see Gurriel getting more at-bats in the middle of the order, which would increase his fantasy production. Do not overthink Gurriel as his contact quality is no joke, and he will again put together a strong fantasy season.
13.2- Giovanny Gallegos (RP - STL)
With SVHLD being the stat of choice instead of just saves, you can wait on relievers in this draft. Gallegos was one of my top targets as he has been a top-10 round pick in saves leagues. The fact he fell to round 13, I was all-in. There are questions about whether Gallegos will be the closer, well that does not matter in this league. He will either pitch the eighth or ninth, which means he will contribute with the stats we are looking for. Gallegos has had a K-rate over 30% for three straight seasons and a K-BB over 20% the last four seasons. I am all aboard the Gallegos train in SVHLD leagues.
14.11- Corey Knebel (RP - PHI)
Like Gallegos, Knebel is much more valuable in an SVHLD league. Last season, Knebel was a monster for the Dodgers with a 2.45 ERA, 29.7% K-rate, and 20.8% K-BB. Knebel has been a significant strikeout pitcher his whole career and has shown extraordinary abilities late in games when not injured. The Phillies brought him to close for now. They may sign another closer which still leaves Knebel plenty of HOLDS chances. Either way, he will rack up SVHLD with plenty of strikeouts and solid ratios.
15.2- Eugenio Suarez (SS/3B - CIN)
I have avoided Suarez all draft season due to his batting average concerns, but he is pretty serviceable in OBP. Sure, last season was ugly even for OBP, but before 2021, he was a solid OBP asset. With batting average not being a concern, I can enjoy Suarez for what he does best: hit home runs. Even in a bad 2021, he hit 31 home runs, giving him 31+ home runs in the last three full seasons. Suarez also brings great value with his positional eligibility as he covers MI and CI, which becomes quite valuable.
16.11- Alex Kirilloff (1B/OF - MIN)
Kirilloff is a major bounce-back candidate for me in 2022. He was hampered with a wrist injury in 2021, had surgery, and should be ready to roll this season. Sure, wrist injuries can be a bit concerning, but I am buying the value that Kirilloff’s power will return. He hit eight home runs in 59 games last season with a 12.8% barrel rate and 43.9% hard-hit rate. He crushes the baseball and will look to bounce back in 2022. Lastly, he brings 1B and OF eligibility which is tremendous when rounding out the roster.
17.2- Avisail Garcia (OF - MIA)
Garcia is coming off his best season where he hit 29 home runs while stealing eight bases and driving in 86. He now joins the Marlins, which may be a bit of a hit to his power, but not enough to concern me. Garcia still brings 20+ home runs upside, excellent OBP skills, and the ability to steal ten bases. Garcia will be an everyday outfielder for the Marlins and should be in line for his third straight 20+ home run season. I will gladly take a 20/10 profile in round 17.
18.11- Jean Segura (2B/SS - PHI)
If you are looking for an underappreciated, boring fantasy asset, look no further than Segura. He perennially brings 12-15 home run upside with solid on-base skills, 70+ runs, and the potential for 10+ stolen bases. Segura brings a great floor as he should be hitting near the top of the potent Phillies lineup. He also brings excellent positional flexibility and could be in line for a bigger 2022 if Hoskins can stay healthy and Realmuto bounces back.
19.2- Trey Mancini (1B - BAL)
What a comeback season for Mancini. He hit 21 home runs with 77 runs, 71 RBI, and a .326 OBP. Mancini has now hit 21+ home runs in four straight seasons, playing at least 147 games each season while also helping in runs, RBI, and OBP. Mancini is as solid and consistent as they come, and another year removed from battling cancer should only help Mancini get back to his 30-home run potential.
20.11- Jeimer Candelario (3B - DET)
The Candy Man is one of the better values at 3B entering the 2022 season. He had a huge coming-out party in 2021 with 16 home runs and a .351 OBP. The stat most do not look at with Candelario is that he hit 42 doubles. Sure, Comerica Park will limit home runs and lead to more doubles, but turning doubles into home runs could be huge for Candelario. We saw a similar growth pattern with Manny Machado back in the day, and he made the switch and became the home run source he is now. I will take the value on Candelario and look for powerful growth. Even if the development does not happen, he will provide excellent production in all categories except steals.
21.2- Omar Narvaez (C - MIL)
It was time to pair Realmuto with another quality C2. Narvaez brings an excellent floor to the position with the potential to add even more power than he did in 2021. He hit 11 home runs last season, but in 2019 hit 22. I’ll take the 11 home runs with the chance of 15+. Narvaez won’t hurt in OBP and will even help in runs and RBI in that excellent Brewers’ lineup.
22.11- Bailey Ober (SP - MIN)
With a solid four starting pitchers to anchor the staff, I was willing to wait on more starting pitchers and take some shots later in the draft. Ober is my first shot. We saw significant growth with Ober last season as he mixed up his pitch mix and finished strong. In his final eight starts, he pitched 40 innings, striking out 40 and allowing 14 earned runs for a 3.15 ERA while only walking four. Limiting walks and improving strikeouts is an excellent recipe for young pitching growth. We could see an even better 2022 from Ober.
23.2- Lane Thomas (OF - WAS)
Thomas took over as the Nats’ leadoff hitter last season and thrived. He hit .258 with 17 extra-base hits and three stolen bases in the season's final month. Thomas also showcased excellent plate discipline, walking 12.5% of the time and racking up a .349 OBP. He was barreling the ball 10.2% of the time with a 48% hard-hit rate as well. Thomas should lead-off again in 2022, and we could see a solid 15/15 season with the potential for much more. Some intelligent people are even saying he could be this season's Cedric Mullins which would be great in round 23.
24.11- Max Kepler (OF - MIN)
As I built my bench, I was willing to take a chance on Kepler bouncing back. Last season, he struggled to hit .211 but still hit 19 home runs and stole ten bases. In 2019 and 2020, Kepler hit 56 home runs and stole five bases, so the power is there. He will likely still lead off for the Twins, which leads to many run-producing chances, and if he can go 20/10, he would be a steal in round 24.
25.2- Cal Quantrill (SP - CLE)
If you look at Quantrill’s overall stat line, some may be bored with his low ratios over 149.2 innings and low strikeout rates. I am ok with that, as he throws a ton of innings with those ratios. Looking deeper, Quantrill got better as the season progressed with a pitch mix improvement. Over his final 11 starts (from 8/1), he pitched at least six innings in 10 starts for 71 total innings. More importantly, he increased his strikeout rate, striking out at least five in nine starts, improving his K-rate to 23.7%. I believe Quantrill will take another step forward in 2022.
26.11- Matt Barnes (RP - BOS)
Time to jump back to the SVHLD conversation means the Red Sox closer, Barnes. Last season he racked up 24 saves with a sub 4.00 ERA and a K-rate of 37.8%. Barnes now has a 30% or better K-rate in the last four seasons. Barnes should stay in the back-end of the Red Sox bullpen with a ton of strikeouts coming his way. He was a no-brainer as my third reliever.
27.2- Tyler Matzek (RP - ATL)
With most closers gone, I took a chance on Matzek. He will appear late in games for the Braves while maintaining excellent ratios and striking out a ton. I was debating between Matzek and Aaron Bummer. The more I think about it, I should have taken Bummer, but Matzek will do just fine. He will be one of the first players I can drop when I need to make a FAAB move.
28.11- Rowdy Tellez (1B - MIL)
It’s Rowdy time in Milwaukee. For the first time in a long time, Tellez should see every day playing time. Tellez should be in line for 20+ home runs and production in all other categories besides steals with everyday playing time. He was worth the upside pick in round 28.
29.2- Anthony Alford (OF - PIT)
With my team struggling in steals, I took a late flyer on Alford. He is projected to play every day for the Pirates and potentially hit in the middle of the order. Last year in 49 games, he hit five home runs and stole five bases. We could see a 15/15 season from Alford with production like that, which would be a steal in round 29. Worth a look as a late-round flier.
Conclusion
All in all, I like this team. I know I am potentially short in steals, but I can find those on the waiver wire, and we can also trade in this league. If I somehow can’t find steals, this is not an overall league, so I can still win without dominating one category. I am solid in OBP and the other offensive categories, so I should have room to trade from my strengths to address steals.
I am thrilled with how things turned out when it comes to pitching. I drafted my innings-eaters early and late grabbed some excellent starting pitching fliers. If Ober or Quantrill takes the next step in their development, I am good to go. For SVHLD, I love that I was able to draft three closers. It brings wiggle room in case they lose their job as they should still pitch late in games which bring holds.
A lot can change as the season goes on, but for now, I am looking forward to rolling this season with this club. I should finish high in most categories and have a solid chance to contend again. With $0 bids allowed and trading, there will always be some excellent options on the waiver wire throughout the season in this 12-team league. Let me know what you guys think of the team, and hopefully, I will be writing a league-winning article in October.
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