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When trying to create a working formula for winning a fantasy baseball league, owners must often search for hidden gems on the waiver wire. Whether they are looking for a piece to last them the rest of the season, replace an injured starter, or just want a pitcher with a favorable matchup in a week, the fantasy owner must always be on high alert for the diamond in the rough.
The starters that are featured in this article have not necessarily been great this season, but will make two favorable starts this week.
Here are the top five two-start pitchers for week seven (5/18-5/24) who are owned in fewer than 50% of Yahoo and Fleaflicker leagues:
Rubby de la Rosa, SP, ARI
@MIA on 5/18, vs CHC on 5/23
Rubby de la Rosa should have a steady home in the starting rotation of the Arizona Diamondbacks. His 4.50 ERA is not glamorous and neither is his 4.13 FIP, but there are other statistics that show a lot of promise for him. For example his SIERA (skill-interactive ERA which is considered to be one of the most accurate run estimators as it factors in batted ball statistics as well as strikeouts) is a nice 3.53. This is due in large part to his ability to strike out his fair share of batters (8.59 K/9) and limit hard contact (19.8% LD rate and 35.7% FB rate).
This week, de la Rosa goes on the road to deal with the Miami Marlins and then heads back home to take on the Chicago Cubs. Over the past seven days, the Marlins rank 27th in baseball with only 20 runs scored. De la Rosa hasn’t pitched well away from home, but he should be able to have his way in Marlins Park against a struggling team.
His next matchup is against a team that has been playing a little bit better of late in the Chicago Cubs. What’s nice about that matchup? De la Rosa pitches much better at home than on the road and he is very good against right-handed hitters (.191 AVG against this season) in a lineup where the better hitters are right-handed. All he has to do is avoid Anthony Rizzo. De la Rosa is owned in only 16% of Fleaflicker leagues.
Mike Foltynewicz, SP, ATL
vs TB on 5/19, vs MIL on 5/24
The Braves have not gotten what they had hoped from young Foltynewicz. They acquired him as part of the Evan Gattis trade. He has been very hit or miss, quite literally. He has an explosive fastball. He has an 8.47 K/9 rate this season. Unfortunately, he also tends to miss a lot which leads to walks (5.29 BB/9) and home runs (1.06 HR/9).
Luckily for him and for fantasy owners, Foltynewicz has two favorable matchups this week. He is home against the Tampa Rays and the Milwaukee Brewers. On the road, the Rays are 28th in the majors with 57 runs scored and the Brewers are 30th with 48. The Brewers may have some thunder in the middle of that lineup, but it is all but totally neutralized when they are away from home. Aside from Evan Longoria, the Rays don’t have very many offensive threats. Foltynewicz is owned in a measly 4% of Fleaflicker leagues.
Kyle Lobstein, SP, DET
vs MIL on 5/18, vs HOU on 5/23
Kyle Lobstein was tasked with the unfortunate job of replacing Justin Verlander in the rotation while the former AL MVP and CY Young winner was on the disabled list. Lobstein has mustered a 4.33 ERA and 4.08 K/9. His 3.63 FIP says that there is certainly some hope for his numbers to improve, but his 4.70 SIERA says otherwise.
While Lobstein is a definite risk to own for the long term, his two starts this week could be kind to him and fantasy owners. Owned in 5% of Fleaflicker leagues, Lobstein first takes on the Brewers at home and then stays put to take on the Houston Astros. You already know the Brewers story at home (30th in the majors in runs scored), but you haven’t heard why the Astros are a good matchup for Lobstein.
This season, the Astros have a .218 average against left-handed pitchers, good for 25th in the majors. The Astros offense also relies primarily on the long ball (second in the majors in home runs) and stolen bases (second in the majors). Kyle Lobstein has given up only 0.25 HR/9 this season with just two stolen bases in 35.1 innings pitched. Lobstein could be a great pickup to help your fantasy team in these two starts, but following those he should probably be dropped.
Aaron Sanchez, SP, TOR
vs LAA on 5/18, vs SEA on 5/23
Aaron Sanchez was picked by many to be an AL Rookie of the Year front runner. There were many that saw him as a future ace, especially after he dominated hitters from the bullpen in 2014 to the tune of a 1.09 ERA and 2.80 FIP. This season, he has struggled with a 4.26 ERA and a 5.65 FIP. These numbers have caused many fantasy owners to panic and drop him.
Sanchez is now owned in only 15% of Fleaflicker leagues and could continue to be dropped. This week, he'll look to have a strong performance in both of his starts. First he takes on the Los Angeles Angels at home. This season, the Angels rank 28th in batting average against right-handed pitchers. They are also not very patient as they have a 6.4% BB rate against right-handed pitchers. Walks are Sanchez's biggest enemy this season (6.87 BB/9 compared to a 5.95 K/9), so the Angels' impatience should help.
Next, he stays at home to take on the Mariners. They also scuffle against right-handed pitching with a .236 average this season. Oh, and Sanchez has a 2.55 ERA at home with a .155 average against hitters at home. So a pitcher who is really good at home takes on two teams that are really bad away from home. Sounds pretty good to me!
Drew Pomeranz, SP, OAK
@HOU on 5/18, @TB on 5/23
The Athletics decided to pick up Pomeranz from the Rockies coming off a disappointing but short tenure in Colorado. He rewarded the A’s in his first season with a 2.35 ERA in 69.0 innings. This season, he has yet to recapture that magic (4.66 ERA). His 3.80 FIP does indicate that there is some room for improvement. Pitching in a pitcher friendly ballpark like Oakland, he could still very easily turn his season around.
Coming off a very strong start against the Boston Red Sox in which he allowed only two runs and four hits through seven innings, Pomeranz will pitch on the road against the Houston Astros and Tampa Bay Rays. This season, the Astros have not been very good at home. They are last in the majors with a .208 batting average. They struggle against left-handed pitching.
After Houston, Pomeranz will head to Tampa Bay. The Rays have a .241 average against lefties (24th in the Majors) and have struggled to hit at home with a .247 average (23rd in the majors). Pomeranz is owned in only 22% of Fleaflicker leagues.
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