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Winning in a dynasty league requires bold strategy, smart trades and a ton of luck.
This past season in a keeper league, I lost in the semifinals on account of a Carlos Santana stolen base. That was Santana’s fifth SB of the year and served as the tiebreaker that ended my season. You just can't predict that. You also can't predict injuries. Yu Darvish, Paul Goldschmidt, Masahiro Tanaka, Troy Tulowitzki, Jose Fernandez and many more ruined dynasty squads last season. Each and every year, managers are saddled with more injuries than they have DL spots to accommodate. Sometimes, though, you get lucky.
Lady luck is what brings me to Tulo. He has only played more than 140 games twice in the last 10 years. He puts up elite numbers when healthy, but you just can't count on him. However, one of these years, a lucky owner will hit the lottery and he'll avoid an extended stint on the disabled list. It has to happen, right? He can't possibly be injured every season. Even with the injury risk, Tulo is still the best SS on earth.
5. Hanley Ramirez, Boston Red Sox (Age: 31)
Ramirez hit a grand slam and added a solo shot in his first game as a member of the Boston Red Sox. Sox management drew a lot of criticism signing Hanley for $22 million annually. They are probably feeling pretty good about that decision right now.
2014 was a down year for HanRam. Despite a drop in numbers, he still led all shortstops with an .817 OPS. Ramirez has a career .300 AVG but Steamer only projects a .290 mark, with more strikeouts and fewer walks. If he gets lucky and stays healthy, I project him for 72/31/90. Playing half of your games at Fenway has its advantages.
4. Xander Bogaerts, Red Sox (22)
After finishing 2014 with a .289 BABIP, his lowest at any level on record, it's safe to assume Bogaerts had some bad luck. Steamer projects a .304 BABIP and .416 SLG, which is fourth among qualified SS. Bet on an increase in production across the board from Bogaerts in 2015. Just temper expectations in the counting stats as manager John Farrell plans to bat him near the bottom of Boston’s loaded lineup to start the year.
3. Ian Desmond, Washington Nationals (29)
In 2014, Ian Desmond led all SS with a 18.2 HR/FB%. As we know all too well, shortstop is an extremely shallow position and Desmond has the most consistent mix of speed and power. He's reached the 20/20 plateau in each of the last three seasons. No other player at the position has done so since Ramirez and Jimmy Rollins both managed the feat in 2012. That's a big reason why Desmond's been a top-5 SS each of those seasons.
2. Starlin Castro, Chicago Cubs (25)
It may be hard to believe, but Castro really is only a quarter of a century old. It’s amazing that he’s been the starting SS for the Cubs since 2010. Lots of folks are saying he is primed for a major breakout, including yours truly. Bold prediction: Castro will be in the running for the NL batting title and finish the season ranked higher than Desmond thanks to a .332-83-20-85-9 line. Get him while he is still relatively cheap, sit back and rake in the profit.
1. Troy Tulowitzki, Colorado Rockies (30)
Tulo's numbers would be elite at any position. He simply rakes. He hits for both power and average, and has incredible range on defense. Of course, he's a major injury risk. Some owners understandably shy away from his as a result. But those who roll the dice will get peerless production from one of the thinnest positions in the game. If he defies the odds and avoids injury, we're talking about an MVP caliber season. Tulowitzki is the only SS with 30 HR potential besides HanRam, who isn't even really playing the position anymore. Tulo is also the only SS projected to hit over .300, score more than 80 runs, or knock in more than 80.
Last year, Tulowitzki had a 1.035 OPS in 375 PA, which would have led the league if he'd played enough to qualify. Victor Martinez was officially the league leader at .974. If you are the type of owner willing to take on the high risk/reward of a Troy Tulowitzki, maybe this is the year you win big.
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