June is creeping around the corner so let's kick off those warm summer months with another edition of my weekly Top 101 Starting Pitcher Baller Ranks breakdown. It's critical that we do our best at differentiating true growth from flukes, as well as a loss of form versus a speed bump. That is our aim with the weekly Starting Pitcher Baller Ranks!
As usual, the tiers are the most important piece of the puzzle, though the position within them is still informative! We've added the previous week's position and the change (Delta) since then. Do note that I'm writing this before most of Tuesday night's games.
These ranks are geared toward traditional 5x5 leagues and I try to present key injured pitchers where I have them for the rest of the season. Let's dig in with two months of the season in the books!
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Starting Pitcher Rankings Analysis
-Tyler Glasnow made his return against a tough Dodger lineup and looked sharp outside of a few mistakes. He only went 4 ⅓ IP but struck out eight, allowing three runs on five hits and a walk. Max Muncy took him deep in the second inning but then he struck out three straight.
The BABIP gods weren’t kind (.444) but the swing-and-miss stuff was apparent and he won’t face the Dodgers each time out. Unfortunately, he does travel to hitter-friendly Fenway for his next outing. If all of these whiffs are him “shaking the rust off,” then we’ll be happy.
-Marcus Stroman casually cruised to his third straight win in dramatic fashion, one-hitting the Rays with a season-high eight strikeouts. That makes 10 quality starts out of 12 total outings in ‘23 for Stro. In fact, he’s gone at least six strong with two runs or fewer in those 10 QS, so he’s bested the standard.
His current 59.5% groundball rate would be his best mark since 2018 but said ground balls are not finding holes. His .226 BABIP is well below the career mark of .297 but the Cubs aren’t a team of Hoover vacuums. Their five Defensive Runs Saved are tied for 13th and the 3.6 DEF score is 12th on Fangraphs.
Last year, Stroman had a 3.50 ERA and 3.94 xERA with a .254 xBA and .308 xwOBA. This year, Stroman has a 3.72 xERA, .246 xBA, and .303 xwOBA. Those expected stats look close to 2022, yet his 2.59 ERA is over a run below the “X.” Be careful.
-Michael Kopech dropped his usual release point by "3-4” against the Royals and Guardians, trouncing them with 19 strikeouts across 15 shutout frames. This dominance came after a horrible first month and a half to 2023, so skepticism was (and still is) warranted. At least there is an observable change to root the success in.
His release point rose a bit in his latest outing against the Angels, who spiked him for four runs on five hits and two walks over 4 ⅓ IP. It wasn’t all bad, though, as he did strike out 10 Halos on the day. That’s three consecutive starts with at least nine punchouts going into a nice home matchup against the Tigers next.
-Bryce Miller got eaten up by the Yankees to the tune of eight earned over 4 ⅔ IP on Monday. The rookie hadn’t allowed a homer in any of his first five outings but got taken yard by Aaron Judge and Jake Bauers. Regression doesn’t work all at once and he still has a 2.70 FIP behind the 3.00 ERA.
He didn’t walk anyone and built on his 31/3 K/BB ratio, but facing the Yanks and Braves has been tougher than beating up Oakland twice. The elevated fastball still must be respected but it isn’t a perpetual magic bullet. Hitters will adjust, can Miller adjust back?
-Sandy Alcantara once again let fantasy teams down with a spotty showing against the Padres on Tuesday (6 ⅓ IP, 4 ER, 3 K) but panic will be at DEFCON 1 if he flops against Oakland next.
-Jacob deGrom threw a 31-pitch bullpen session on Friday and is slated for another on Wednesday. Hope springs eternal for his tremendous upside, but this injury could linger throughout 2023 even if he returns on schedule.
Top 101 Starting Pitchers for Fantasy Baseball - Week 10
| Tier | Name | Rank | $Value | Last Rank | Delta |
| 1 | Spencer Strider | 1 | $43.0 | 1 | 0 |
| 1 | Shane McClanahan | 2 | $42.0 | 4 | 2 |
| 1 | Gerrit Cole | 3 | $41.0 | 3 | 0 |
| 1 | Shohei Ohtani | 4 | $41.0 | 2 | -2 |
| 2 | Corbin Burnes | 5 | $41.0 | 6 | 1 |
| 2 | Zac Gallen | 6 | $39.0 | 5 | -1 |
| 2 | Luis Castillo | 7 | $38.0 | 7 | 0 |
| 2 | Zack Wheeler | 8 | $37.0 | 8 | 0 |
| 2 | Kevin Gausman | 9 | $36.5 | 9 | 0 |
| 2 | Clayton Kershaw | 10 | $36.0 | 10 | 0 |
| 2 | Justin Verlander | 11 | $34.0 | 11 | 0 |
| 2 | Cristian Javier | 12 | $34.0 | 12 | 0 |
| 2 | Framber Valdez | 13 | $31.5 | 13 | 0 |
| 2 | Max Scherzer | 14 | $31.0 | 20 | 6 |
| 2 | Jacob deGrom | 15 | $31.0 | 18 | 3 |
| 2 | Joe Ryan | 16 | $29.5 | 16 | 0 |
| 3 | Yu Darvish | 17 | $28.5 | 15 | -2 |
| 3 | Aaron Nola | 18 | $28.5 | 17 | -1 |
| 3 | Nathan Eovaldi | 19 | $27.0 | 23 | 4 |
| 3 | Sandy Alcantara | 20 | $26.0 | 14 | -6 |
| 3 | Julio Urias | 21 | $25.0 | 19 | -2 |
| 3 | Sonny Gray | 22 | $24.0 | 21 | -1 |
| 3 | Chris Sale | 23 | $23.5 | 22 | -1 |
| 3 | Logan Webb | 24 | $24.0 | 24 | 0 |
| 3 | Logan Gilbert | 25 | $23.0 | 31 | 6 |
| 4 | Joe Musgrove | 26 | $21.0 | 26 | 0 |
| 4 | George Kirby | 27 | $21.0 | 25 | -2 |
| 4 | Shane Bieber | 28 | $20.5 | 27 | -1 |
| 4 | Pablo Lopez | 29 | $19.5 | 28 | -1 |
| 4 | Chris Bassitt | 30 | $19.0 | 32 | 2 |
| 4 | Luis Severino | 31 | $19.0 | 33 | 2 |
| 4 | Tyler Glasnow | 32 | $18.0 | 34 | 2 |
| 4 | Dylan Cease | 33 | $17.0 | 30 | -3 |
| 4 | Hunter Brown | 34 | $17.0 | 35 | 1 |
| 4 | Mitch Keller | 35 | $17.0 | 40 | 5 |
| 4 | Nestor Cortes | 36 | $17.0 | 29 | -7 |
| 5 | Andrew Heaney | 37 | $16.5 | 38 | 1 |
| 5 | Freddy Peralta | 38 | $16.0 | 36 | -2 |
| 5 | Hunter Greene | 39 | $15.5 | 41 | 2 |
| 5 | Bryce Miller | 40 | $15.0 | 39 | -1 |
| 5 | Jordan Montgomery | 41 | $15.0 | 37 | -4 |
| 5 | Triston McKenzie | 42 | $14.5 | 43 | 1 |
| 5 | Jesus Luzardo | 43 | $14.5 | 44 | 1 |
| 5 | Justin Steele | 44 | $14.0 | 46 | 2 |
| 5 | Jon Gray | 45 | $13.5 | 47 | 2 |
| 5 | Charlie Morton | 46 | $13.5 | 45 | -1 |
| 5 | Zach Eflin | 47 | $13.5 | 48 | 1 |
| 5 | Tanner Bibee | 48 | $13.0 | 49 | 1 |
| 5 | Marcus Stroman | 49 | $12.0 | 54 | 5 |
| 6 | Carlos Rodon | 50 | $11.0 | 51 | 1 |
| 6 | Brandon Woodruff | 51 | $10.5 | 50 | -1 |
| 6 | Lucas Giolito | 52 | $10.5 | 53 | 1 |
| 6 | Lance Lynn | 53 | $10.0 | 55 | 2 |
| 6 | Eury Perez | 54 | $10.0 | 56 | 2 |
| 6 | Logan Allen | 55 | $10.0 | 58 | 3 |
| 6 | Alex Cobb | 56 | $10.0 | 52 | -4 |
| 6 | Kodai Senga | 57 | $9.5 | 59 | 2 |
| 6 | Reid Detmers | 58 | $9.0 | 57 | -1 |
| 6 | Merrill Kelly | 59 | $8.5 | 64 | 5 |
| 6 | Bryce Elder | 60 | $8.0 | 62 | 2 |
| 6 | Michael Wacha | 61 | $8.0 | 80 | 19 |
| 6 | Bailey Ober | 62 | $8.0 | 61 | -1 |
| 6 | Tony Gonsolin | 63 | $8.0 | 63 | 0 |
| 7 | Blake Snell | 64 | $7.0 | 60 | -4 |
| 7 | Bobby Miller | 65 | $6.0 | 71 | 6 |
| 7 | Jose Berrios | 66 | $6.0 | 67 | 1 |
| 7 | Tyler Wells | 67 | $6.0 | 68 | 1 |
| 7 | Michael Kopech | 68 | $5.5 | 87 | 19 |
| 7 | Louie Varland | 69 | $5.0 | 69 | 0 |
| 7 | Patrick Sandoval | 70 | $5.0 | 65 | -5 |
| 8 | Eduardo Rodriguez | 71 | $4.5 | 42 | -29 |
| 8 | Drew Smyly | 72 | $4.5 | 72 | 0 |
| 8 | Josiah Gray | 73 | $4.5 | 73 | 0 |
| 8 | Jack Flaherty | 74 | $4.5 | 74 | 0 |
| 8 | Edward Cabrera | 75 | $4.0 | 76 | 1 |
| 8 | J.P. France | 76 | $4.0 | 77 | 1 |
| 8 | Anthony DeSclafani | 77 | $4.0 | 78 | 1 |
| 8 | Jameson Taillon | 78 | $4.0 | 79 | 1 |
| 8 | MacKenzie Gore | 79 | $3.5 | 81 | 2 |
| 8 | James Paxton | 80 | $3.5 | 83 | 3 |
| 8 | Taj Bradley | 81 | $3.0 | 86 | 5 |
| 8 | Kyle Bradish | 82 | $3.0 | 90 | 8 |
| 8 | Garrett Whitlock | 83 | $2.5 | -- | -- |
| 8 | Domingo German | 84 | $2.5 | 82 | -2 |
| 8 | Tanner Houck | 85 | $2.0 | 92 | 7 |
| 8 | Braxton Garrett | 86 | $2.0 | 89 | 3 |
| 9 | Max Fried | 87 | $2.0 | 94 | 7 |
| 9 | Graham Ashcraft | 88 | $2.0 | 75 | -13 |
| 9 | Nick Lodolo | 89 | $2.0 | 85 | -4 |
| 9 | Johan Oviedo | 90 | $1.5 | 88 | -2 |
| 9 | Dane Dunning | 91 | $1.5 | 96 | 5 |
| 9 | Alek Manoah | 92 | $1.5 | 91 | -1 |
| 9 | Matthew Liberatore | 93 | $1.5 | -- | -- |
| 9 | Martin Perez | 94 | $1.0 | 95 | 1 |
| 9 | Miles Mikolas | 95 | $1.0 | -- | -- |
| 9 | JP Sears | 96 | $1.0 | 97 | 1 |
| 9 | Brady Singer | 97 | $1.0 | 98 | 1 |
| 9 | Brayan Bello | 98 | $1.0 | 99 | 1 |
| 9 | Taijuan Walker | 99 | $1.0 | 101 | 2 |
| 9 | Michael Lorenzen | 100 | $1.0 | -- | -- |
| 9 | Jared Shuster | 101 | $1.0 | -- | -- |
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