RADIO
Welcome, RotoBallers! If you do not know me, my name is Mark and I write NFL, MLB, and NHL on Rotoballer. I play NHL DFS almost daily, and am excited to bring you my thoughts on today's slate!
Today I'll be bringing you my NHL lineup picks, analysis, and advice for NHL DFS contests on DraftKings and FanDuel for Wednesday, March 30th, 2022 at 7:00 PM EST. Be sure to also check out our awesome suite of NHL DFS lineup tools including our Lineup Optimizer, Research Station, DFS Projections, and DFS Cheat Sheets!
If you have any questions on today's slate, bankroll management, GPP strategy, Cash game strategy, or anything else don’t hesitate to hit me up on Twitter @Mark_Kieffer or in our premium slack chat. Good luck, RotoBallers!
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NHL DFS Analysis and Picks for 3/30/22
We have a six-game slate tonight. We have games starting at staggered times between 7 pm Eastern and 10:00 pm Eastern. Be aware of when the games start for your stacks, one-offs, and goalie. The best thing you can do is check 20-30 minutes before the puck drops for each game to ensure everyone in your lineup is playing! Nothing is more frustrating than having a great lineup and getting a zero from any position but especially goalie!
NHL DFS Goalies
James Reimer- DK $7.9K|| FD $7.7K
Opponent - Arizona Coyotes
San Jose is a favorite in this game, and despite Reimer having a rough patch in the middle of the season, he is having a good season over. Reimer is 18-13-6 with a 2.75 GAA, one shutout, and a .917 SV%. He also has three straight wins with a .929 SV% over those three games. Arizona averages the fewest shots on goal per game in the league (25.77) and Reimer should get his fourth win in a row, all while being under $8K on both sites.
Others To Consider (Cash/GPP): Koskinen (DK $8.3K || FD $8.2K), Shesterkin (DK $8.2K || FD $8.6K), Thompson (DK $8.1K || FD $7.9K), Hellebuyck (DK $8.0K || FD $8.3K), Husso (DK $7.6K || FD $8.4K), Grubauer (DK $7.3K || FD $7.0K - GPP), Vejmelka (DK $7.5K || FD $6.8K - GPP), Petersen (DK $7.1K || FD $8.K - GPP). In cash games, roster a favorite. In GPPs roster a goalie going against a popular stack, especially a large field GPP for leverage.
NHL DFS Centers
When rostering a Center you have to decide if you are going to pair or stack with a winger. If pairing or stacking, you can go for a pass-first center that will be a little less expensive in hopes of them getting an assist to the winger(s) you have. If you are looking for a Center as a stand-alone player, I recommend rostering Centers that are expected to take a lot of shots on goal. Below you will find recommendations that fall in both camps.
Mika Zibanejad- DK $6.9K || FD $8.0K
Opponent - Detroit Red Wings
Even though we have Edmonton on the slate, I do not think in a cash game it is wise to spend up to a McDavid or Draisaitl on this slate. The New York Rangers are playing against Detroit and will be a heavy favorite expected to score four goals or so. New York's strength is the power play (No. 3 with 26.4% power play %) and Detroit has the No. 32 penalty kill (72.4%). Zibanejad is a point-per-game player (68 points in 66 games), averaging 2.83 shots on goal per game. He does not possess the upside of a McDavid but he should be a solid floor play in a good spot for a cash game or as part of a New York PP stack.
Tomas Hertl- DK $5.8K || FD $6.2K
Opponent - Arizona Coyotes
Arizona is always a team I target in DFS in addition to Detroit, Buffalo, and others. San Jose is a favorite in this game and is expected to score around three goals or so. Tomas Hertl is also on a hot streak as he has scored five points in the last three games with seven shots on goal. On the season, he has 54 points (26 goals, 28 assists) in 65 games played averaging 2.69 shots on goal per game. It is difficult to find good centers in the mid-range and while Hertl does not score as many points as we would like, he is priced well for the production he has had.
Others To Consider (CASH/GPP): McDavid (DK $9.0K || FD $10.2K), Miller (DK$ 7.3K || FD $8.2K - Winger on FD), Scheifele (DK $6.2K || FD $7.6K), Dubois (DK $5.6K || FD $6.5K), Thomas (DK $4.2K || FD $4.6K), Stephenson (DK $3.5K || FD $5.0K)
NHL DFS Wings
Generally, with wingers, I want players that are likely to take many shots on goal at a reduced price. I play tournaments and generally stack, but if I am playing a winger as a one-off I want a guy that is going to shoot a lot and hopefully scores.
Kyle Connor - DK $8.4K|| FD $9.4K
Opponent - Buffalo Sabres
On this slate, I prefer to spend up at winger than center. Kyle Connor has 83 points (41 goals, 42 assists) in 68 games played averaging 4.24 shots on goal per game. He has as much upside as Connor McDavid but is priced less than him. Buffalo is No. 5 in shots allowed per game, and Kyle Connor along with Winnipeg's top two lines are in a great spot tonight.
Artemi Panarin- DK $6.2K || FD $7.1K
Opponent - Detroit Red Wings
Artemi Panarin has 75 points (17 goals, 58 assists) in 61 games played averaging 2.39 shots on goal per game. He does not give you much upside as he does not take many shots on goal, but he is a productive player on the ice. He is fine as a value play and definitely needs to be included in any Rangers power play stacks created.
Others To Consider (CASH/GPP): Meier (DK $7.7K || FD $9.0K), Ehlers (DK $6.7K || FD $7.6K), Marchessault (DK $6.1K || FD $6.3K), Wheeler (DK $5.9K || FD $7.2K), Buchnevich (DK $5.6K || FD $6.4K), Hyman (DK $5.1K || FD $6.8K), Kaliyev (DK $2.9K || FD $4.5K), Vatrano (DK $2.8K || FD $4.2K)
NHL DFS Defensemen
My general rule of thumb with Defensemen is if I am spending up at the position, I want that player to be on the Powerplay with a chance to score a goal. This is also a position I will punt quite a bit at. If I am punting, I want a player that is projected to get a good amount of ice time and has a chance to get a blocked shot bonus on DraftKings. I also try to find defensemen on a power play (might be the 2nd one) if I can.
This slate does not have a lot of great defenseman value at the top of the salary and I would advise to either punt here or add a power-play defenseman to a stack if playing a GPP.
Adam Fox - DK $6.4K || FD $6.6K
Opponent - Detroit Red Wings
Probably sensing a theme throughout this article in that I like the Rangers' power play. Adam Fox has 64 points (10 goals, 54 assists) in 63 games played. He also averages 1.89 shots on goal per game and 1.83 blocked shots per game. He averages 24 minutes of time on the ice per game. He is the top defenseman on the slate as he is the only one that averages more than one point per game and is on one of the top power plays against the worst penalty kill in the league.
Erik Karlsson- DK $5.7K || FD $5.5K
Opponent - Arizona Coyotes
Erik Karlsson has scored 31 points (10 goals, 21 assists) in 42 games played. He averages 2.43 shots on goal per game and 0.98 blocked shots per game. He is also on the San Jose first power-play unit and is in a good spot as Arizona has the No. 29 penalty kill (73.5%). Typically with San Jose, we think of Brent Burns as the defenseman to use from the team, however, Karlsson scores nearly the same number of fantasy points as Burns, yet is less expensive than Burns.
Others To Consider (CASH/GPP): Pietrangelo (DK $6.3K || FD $6.7K), Burns (DK $6.1K || FD $5.7K), Trouba (DK $5.8K || FD $5.4K), Hughes (DK $5.5K || FD $5.5K), Durzi (DK $5.4K || FD $4.9K), Parayko (DK $5.3K || FD $5.1K), Gostisbehere (DK $5.1K || FD $5.8K), Larsson (DK $2.8K || FD $3.9K)
NHL DFS GPP Strategy
This will come as no surprise, I am a single entry and 3 max DFS player, but I will look to fade all of those lowest implied total teams and try to target stacks in the high implied total games.
I imagine Edmonton, New York, and Winnipeg will be the most popular teams to stack. I am going to outright fade Edmonton in GPPs, as Los Angeles allows the fewest shots on goal per game and I do not think this is the night Edmonton has a ceiling game. If New York PP1 and Winnipeg PP1 are not too chalky, those are two stacks I will look at using as a main stack.
Other stacks I like are:
San Jose PP1: Arizona has the No. 29 penalty kill in the league (73.5%). San Jose tends to get overlooked since they are not a great team, and this game will be late with a 10:00 pm EST start.
Saint Louis PP1: Vancouver has the No. 30 penalty kill and Saint Louis has the No. 4 power play (25.8%). If wanting to roster New York but they are too chalky, this might be a better pivot
Winnipeg 2: Aside from the bad penalty kill, Buffalo allows the fifth-most shots on goal per game. Winnipeg 1 is now correlated to the Power Play, so this is a way to get away from that likely high-owned stack. Winnipeg 2 has one player on the first power play and two on the second one.
Los Angeles 2: People will choose the Edmonton side to stack if they want exposure to the game. The Kings are No. 5 in the league in shots on goal per game (35.07) and Edmonton is middle of the pack in shots allowed per game. If Los Angeles can get some shots up, this unit could score some goals. This unit has scored 23 goals as a forward combination on the season.
If you are looking to get sneaky anywhere stack-wise, find a high-owned goalie and choose the most productive stack against that goalie's opponent for leverage, especially in a large field GPP.
