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We continue looking at ADP risers and fallers through the offseason as we already completed our first run back in June.
Average Draft Position (ADP) indicates the average position where a player is drafted over more than one fantasy football draft. You can consider it as the price you have to pay to draft and get a player on your team.
ADPs are helpful to gauge the average value of players on draft day as viewed by the competition.
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Tight Ends - ADP Fallers
Mike Gesicki - Miami Dolphins
It is not that Gesicki's ADP has plummeted of late, but the 16-spot drop is more than a full-round hit on the tight end's ADP in just the last four weeks alone. There is only one reason we know of that could have impacted Gesicki's average draft position in July/August and that's related to his bout with COVID-19 and placement on the reserve list. He's now off that list, though, and gearing up for the regular season.
The Dolphins drafted a tight end this past draft, but he shouldn't be too worrying for either Gesicki or his fantasy GMs. The receiving corps of Miami, though, got quite an upgrade with the additions of rookie Jaylen Waddle and Will Fuller. That is indeed concerning when it comes to both of those newcomers eating from Gesicki's pie even if he will have no challengers at the position.
Gesicki is projected (via PFF) to around 155 PPR points in 2021 in which would amount to a TE8 finish. That's not bad, and in fact, that's great and even better considering that Gesicki's ADP is dropping and it was already low a few weeks back. Gesicki is the only tight end getting drafted outside of the top-90 picks that projects to a TE14-or-better finish next season. He's getting off draft boards after Dallas Goedert, Noah Fant, Logan Thomas, and Robert Tonyan, all of them having lower projections this late into the offseason. Take advantage of the glitch and score you some 100th-ish ADP shares of the Dolphins tight end.
Dallas Goedert - Philadelphia Eagles
Goedert is stumbling as hell even though he should be the Eagles' TE1 next season. Keyword: should. Zach Ertz is still in Philly. Whether you think that is right or wrong doesn't mean much. What matters is that he is still a player in the Eagles organization manning the same slot as Goedert and potentially eating from Dallas Goedert's cake of opportunities and targets. Ugh.
Ertz has looked washed-up lately. He's done, as simple as that, but Philly has found no takers for the veteran so far, and I don't think the Eagles will just cut him out of thin air. Not very recent news about this at least leads me to believe that's going to be the case. More than a week before July's end, there were reports that Ertz will in fact stay put in Philly, so there's that.
Goedert's TE1 projection is absolutely conditioned by Ertz's situation come Week 1. If he remains in Philly and gets to play there for the full 2021 season, I'm afraid Goedert's upside will be cut down quite a bit. If not, Goedert and his fantasy GM would instantly become winners. The 60 ADP of mid-July, though, was absolutely unreasonable and super high. Things have gotten a little bit more palatable with an ADP in the 70s and falling now. Given the doubts about this whole tight-end pairing, though, I'd advise banking on a safer player--as if "safer" tight ends were a thing...--at least until we know more about this whole Ertz-related drama.
Hunter Henry - New England Patriots
The Patriots never spend big bucks in free agency. They did this offseason, though. But they freaking signed two tight ends to man a single slot with pretty similar floors/ceilings to make matters worse. We went from Jonnu and Hunter the viable fantasy players to Jonnu and Hunter the fantasy afterthoughts. Goddamit.
Jonnu Smith got banged up but is now ready for training and regular-season games when the time comes. On the other hand, Hunter Henry got injured recently (named out for two weeks on Aug. 11) and will go through the pains of an ailing shoulder issue. Jonnu was already slotted as the TE1 of the team and although he might experience some health issues himself throughout the year, Henry is not exempt of that type of problem either.
Truth be told, I never liked the outlook of any of these two once they signed with the Pats to alternate snaps or even share the floor on two-TE sets. The chart above doesn't factor in the recent injury suffered by Henry, but he should be ready to go in Week 1. That would probably mean that the ADPs of Henry and Jonnu will stay in the 115-to-140 clip. That's not the most expensive of prices to pay for their projections (125 PPR points each) but the fact that you don't have any idea who will turn into the honcho at the TE slot nor who will hit each week poses too much of a risk for me to gamble on any of them in my leagues' drafts. Spot WW targets at best.
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