2025 Fantasy Basketball Third Year Breakouts and Busts

December 11, 2025

Thunder Dan Palyo dives into the data from the first two months of the NBA season to see which third year players are breaking out and showing signs of being reliable fantasy assets.

The NBA is becoming a young man's league. Rookies are playing more than ever before, and while every young player faces a different set of expectations (based on where they were drafted), many are expected to start showing the promise of becoming a rotational player for their respective teams within the first three years of their careers.

It's far too early in the season to react to the rookies, and to be fair, only a handful of them are making a big impact so far in year one. Instead, I'd like to take a closer look at some second and third-year players who are (or aren't) starting to live up to expectations.

Let's start with third-year players this week, and with the NBA slowing down for the next week due to the Emirates NBA Cup, perhaps we can delve into those second-year players next week. An important note here for our player list is that I am not including four of the top five picks of this third-year group, as I think it's pretty clear that each of them has "broken out" to some extent already in their first two seasons. Those players are Victor Wembanyama, Brandon Miller, Amen Thompson, and Ausar Thompson. Without any further ado, here are your 2025 third-year fantasy breakouts and busts!

Fantasy Basketball: Third-Year Breakouts

I might be addicted to making charts and graphics. But I couldn't help but pull some advanced statistics in addition to the nine standard stats for H2H and roto leagues. Here are the usage and PIE rates for each of the five featured players and how they've changed from their rookie season to this year.

If you are unfamiliar with PIE (player impact estimate), I wrote about it here earlier this season when I highlighted some players with the biggest increases and decreases in that metric.

All stats that represent career-highs are in bold. All statistics were current as of Tuesday, December 9th.

Keyonte George, PG/SG - Utah Jazz

2025 Stats: 22.2 PTS, 3.9 REB, 6.7 AST, 0.8 STL, 0.3 BLK, 2.1 3PTM, 43.6% FG%, 90.5% FT%, 3.6 TO

George just turned 22 years old last month. He was taken at number 16 overall by Utah, right after Atlanta selected Kobe Bufkin (whoops!) I'll admit that I was skeptical about his potential to be "the guy" in Utah based on what we saw from him in his first two seasons, and the Jazz also drafted two more guards last summer (Ace Bailey and Walter Clayton Jr.), which made me think that they weren't putting all their eggs in George's basket, too.

George was a very inefficient player in his first two seasons, shooting 39% from the field with a eFG% (effective field goal percentage) of 48.3% and a TS% (true shooting percentage) of 53.6%. He showed the ability to get buckets, but required a large volume of shots to do so.

This year, he's taking fewer threes (6.3 per game) and is taking the ball to the rim at a much higher rate. Not only has that helped him improve his shooting percentages, but it's also resulted in a big increase in free-throw attempts as George is taking nearly seven attempts from the line this season (15th in the NBA) compared to just 4.3 last year. His 90% mark at the line on that kind of volume is hugely impactful on your FT%.

It's weird to say, but there have been quite a few nights lately where Keyonte George has been Utah's most consistent player

He had 18 PTS & 4 AST vs the Knicks yesterday, and Utah's offense would have been even more lost without him

Signs of growth 📈 pic.twitter.com/DjQzxGz6mX

— Jazz Lead (@JazzLead) December 6, 2025

The question remains - is George a true point guard? He can play both on and off the ball, but clearly prefers to play with the ball in his hands. Last year, the Jazz moved him to shooting guard to play alongside a true pass-first point guard, Isaiah Collier. But Collier started this season on the shelf with an injury, allowing George to start at point guard, which has led to his career-best output in assists. They continue to bring Collier off the bench, though lately it's been Walter Clayton Jr. who is pushing for minutes as the point guard with the second unit.

I have no idea what Utah plans to do with all of these young players they've accumulated through trades and the draft over the last four seasons, but at some point, they are going to have to choose which players they want to build around. One of Collier or Clayton Jr. may have to go, but George's performance so far this season has likely been enough to show management that he should be one of their foundational pieces.

Ultimately, George's upside in assists is part of his appeal, and that number could fluctuate by several assists depending on whether he's being tasked with point guard duties or not. With more assists, however, have also come more turnovers (3.6) this season, so it cuts both ways.

We'd love to see more defensive stats, but George's counting stats this year, paired with improved efficiency, have pushed him up into the top-100 (currently 93 in 9-CAT), and he's far more valuable than that ranking in a punt-FG% and/or punt-TOs build.

Anthony Black, PG/SG - Orlando Magic

2025 Stats: 13.2 PTS, 3.9 REB, 3.1 AST, 1.3 STL, 0.6 BLK, 1.1 3PTM, 45.4% FG%, 69.2% FT%, 2.1 TO

Black was a lottery pick, taken sixth overall by the Magic in this draft class. However, unlike George, Black wasn't thrust into big minutes right away. He played just 17 minutes per game as a rookie and then 24 minutes per game in his sophomore season.

Black's role on the team this season, however, is considerably bigger, and his third-year leap has come at just the right time as Orlando has dealt with injuries to both Paolo Banchero and Franz Wagner (last season and this season, too). The Magic paid a high price to bring in Desmond Bane to help out their young superstars, but Black's development has also been incredibly important and impactful for this team.

Anthony Black dunk, Jalen Suggs assists pic.twitter.com/23M18FLngB

— The Magic Way (@MagicFilmRoom) December 10, 2025

Black finally entered the starting lineup for Orlando last night in their NBA Cup victory over the Heat. However, he's been functioning as the team's sixth man this season, playing around 28 minutes per night. Black's ability to get to the rim as a slasher has given this offense another element. He's still not a great three-point shooter (31.4% this season), but he's another shot-creator on the floor out there for Orlando, who lacks a true point guard in this lineup. Black, Bane, and Suggs can all take turns initiating the offense (as well as Banchero, too), and Black's versatility allows the Magic to play "positionless basketball" if they want to go small and play without a true center on the floor, too.

For fantasy purposes, Black should be rostered in all formats with the news that Franz Wagner is going to miss anywhere from another two to four weeks. And I think he's going to continue to make himself an invaluable part of this rotation during the next month, so that he will hang onto fantasy viability even once the Magic are at full health.

The FT% is the one major wart in his 9-CAT game right now, but his steals and blocks have been very helpful. He's very much still a work in progress, but he's clearly on an upward trajectory, and I won't be surprised if he continues to improve as a real-life and fantasy player as the year goes along.

Jaime Jaquez Jr., SG/SF/PF - Miami Heat

2025 Stats: 15.8 PTS, 6.0 REB, 5.1 AST, 0.7 STL, 0.3 BLK, 0.3 3PTM, 51.6% FG%, 76.7% FT%, 2.1 TO

The first three years of Jaquez Jr.'s career have not been linear in terms of his statistical improvement. He played a much bigger role on this Miami team in his rookie campaign (28 minutes per game) than he did last season (only 20.7 minutes per game).

But the Heat sent Jimmy Butler to Golden State midway through last season, and now this team looks a lot different this year. Injuries to Tyler Herro, Norman Powell, and Bam Adebayo at different times in the first month of the season opened up a ton of playing time for JJJ, and he responded in a big way, posting some impressive counting stats with good efficiency - shooting over 50% from the floor with only around two turnovers a game.

Good flow on offense from the Miami Heat. Get the ball up quick, look to drive and keep it moving if nothing is there. Jaime Jaquez Jr drives have been huge for Miami this year. pic.twitter.com/yzAI4up2pp

— Steve Jones (@stevejones20) December 9, 2025

The improved efficiency can be attributed to more dribble drives into the paint and fewer three-point attempts. He's not been a very good three-point shooter in his NBA career, so focusing more on getting to the rim and taking more mid-range shots makes a lot of sense for Jaquez Jr. to maximize his abilities.

His fantasy game is going to be entirely dependent on his ability to rack up counting stats and do it efficiently, so unfortunately, he's only a viable fantasy option when he's getting minutes in the mid-20s or higher. Right now, Miami is back at full strength, and Jaquez Jr.'s role has shrunk considerably compared to what it was earlier this season.

He was a recent Cut List candidate for me last week and I stand by that prognosis with the one caveat being that he's still an elite streaming option when we know in advance that Miami is going to rest several starters ahead of time (this should happen throughout the year with Herro coming off a major injury and Miami having a lineup full of veterans who will need maintenance days - Wiggins, Adebayo, and Powell).

Noah Clowney, PF/C - Brooklyn Nets

2025 Stats: 13.3 PTS, 3.8 REB, 1.7 AST, 0.6 STL, 0.7 BLK, 2.3 3PTM, 41.7% FG%, 81.8% FT%, 1.7 TO

There have not been many bright spots for the Brooklyn Nets this season. Michael Porter Jr. has been putting up huge numbers, but we already knew what he could do based on his time in Denver. Nicolas Claxton has shown off an improved offensive arsenal, but is in his 7th season and his age-26 season. The majority of the Nets' roster (other than Cam Thomas) is made up of young players who are trying to prove that they should be building blocks for this Brooklyn franchise for years to come.

Noah Clowney 29 PTS on 8/15 FG, 3 BLK pic.twitter.com/xiBdTVJfl6

— Brett Usher (@UsherNBA) December 5, 2025

Clowney has emerged as the other main scoring option on offense, other than MPJ and Claxton. He's started the last 17 games for Brooklyn and is averaging 16.5 points on 44.7% shooting in those games. He's a big body at 6-foot-10 who can stretch the floor with his three-point range while also still being able to score inside.

His overall fantasy profile is fairly limited as he's really only been a big contributor in points, threes, and FT% so far, but he has flashed some ability to get defensive stats and boards at times. Right now, MPJ is gobbling up boards at an elite rate from his small forward position, but at some point, if we see him shut down in the final few months, it could be Clowney's time to showcase his game as a primary scoring option. He belongs on rosters right now, but needs to improve his shooting and add some more versatility to his stat set if he's going to develop into the player that Brooklyn hopes he can be.

Jordan Walsh, SG/SF/PF - Boston Celtics

2025 Stats: 7.1 PTS, 4.8 REB, 1.1 AST, 1.2 STL, 0.6 BLK, 0.8 3PTM, 58.1% FG%, 81% FT%, 0.6 TO

The only reason that Walsh didn't make my waiver wire article this week was that the Celtics play just once in this funky NBA Cup schedule this week. The second-round pick out of Arkansas appears to have a stranglehold on the starting power forward spot for the Celtics, thanks to his relentless effort on defense and willingness to do the dirty work of hitting the boards and guarding the opposing team's best player.

Jordan Walsh crashes for the board & SLAMS IT!

Boston seeking 5th straight win on the road: https://t.co/05uOsgwUFe pic.twitter.com/2lmGpVRzI7

— NBA (@NBA) December 7, 2025

Walsh barely played his first two seasons in the league and wasn't even in the rotation to start this season. However, guys like Sam Hauser and Josh Minott failed to lock down the starting power forward slot, opening the door for Walsh to get an opportunity.

His game isn't flashy, and his fantasy output, like his style of play, won't be appreciated by everyone. But over the last month, he's been a top-70 player in 9-CAT on the strength of 60% shooting from the field, 81% from the free throw line, and 2.2 combined blocks/steals with just 0.7 turnovers.

So often, these types of "glue guys" are better real-life players than fantasy assets, but on the right build, Walsh has a ton of value, especially given his eligibility at three positions. Boston is known for finding some diamonds-in-the-rough and turning them into valuable rotational players, and it looks like Brad Stevens may have just done it again.

Fantasy Basketball: Third Year Busts

Scoot Henderson, PG/SG - Portland Trail Blazers

2024 Stats (Has yet to play in 2025): 12.7 PTS, 3.0 REB, 5.1 AST, 1.0 STL, 0.2 BLK, 1.6 3PTM, 41.9% FG%, 76.7% FT%, 2.7 TO

Perhaps it's not too fair to take a shot at Scoot when he's yet to suit up this season due to injury, but considering he was taken second overall by Portland right after Wemby and before the Thompson twins, calling his first two years a disappointment feels warranted.

His sophomore stats reflected only a minor increase in FG%, while his scoring, assists, and FT% all dipped a bit. The organization clearly hasn't given up on him yet, but they did bring in a veteran, Jrue Holiday, at point guard this season in an attempt to compete for a playoff spot instead of tanking as they had the two years prior.

Holiday should be a great mentor for Scoot, but what is Henderson's role going to be when he does return this season? He'll likely continue to come off the bench, and it feels like 25 minutes is a best-case scenario. He's going to have to become a more efficient scorer to have much fantasy value in limited minutes. He's not proven himself to be a great three-pointer shooter or defender, so his value is mainly tied to points and assists.

There's still a good chance that he becomes a starter in this league and a solid fantasy player, but it feels like the earliest that's going to happen is going to be next season.

Bilal Coulibaly, SG/SF - Washington Wizards

2025 Stats: 8.8 PTS, 4.0 REB, 3.0 AST, 1.3 STL, 1.0 BLK, 0.9 3PTM, 37.4% FG%, 77.1% FT%, 1.8 TO

Coulibaly is currently on the shelf with an injury, and is still a very young (just 21 years old), toolsy player with some impressive defensive chops. With 2.3 steals/blocks per game again so far this season, he continues to tease us with his ability to pile up defensive stats on the wing. It's only been 12 games, but his numbers are down across the board when compared with his sophomore season (other than blocks).

Coulibaly's offensive development continues to lag. He's been terrible behind the arc (30.7% for his career), and he's shooting just 46% on two-point field goals this season. The Wizards have a lot of young talent assembled on this roster, and they don't necessarily need Coulibaly to be a major offensive threat - but if he's going to stick in the lineup over the long term, he's going to have to at least be able to knock down jumpers. He might end up back on fantasy rosters later this season, but he feels like he's still a year away from truly breaking out.

Cam Whitmore, SG/SF - Washington Wizards

2025 Stats: 9.2 PTS, 2.8 REB, 0.7 AST, 0.7 STL, 0.4 BLK, 0.8 3PTM, 45.6% FG%, 74.2% FT%, 0.9 TO

We go right from one 21-year-old Washington wing to another with Whitmore making the bust list, too. The Wizards acquired him from Houston this offseason, where he was buried on the depth chart and got less playing time in Year 2 than he did in his rookie campaign.

As a rookie, Cam demonstrated an impressive ability to score the basketball, averaging 12.3 points per game in just 18.7 minutes. When he arrived in Washington, there was a lot of speculation that the Wizards would give him the playing time this season that he didn't get in Houston, since Washington is a rebuilding team with a need for offense.

The Washington Wizards have concerns about Cam Whitmore’s practice habits and day-to-day work, per @GrantAfseth

“Inside the organization, the concern has been the day-to-day work. Amid a 3-19 start to the season, Washington has emphasized establishing firm practice habits and a… pic.twitter.com/GqZFSeYYKi

— NBACentral (@TheDunkCentral) December 8, 2025

But Whitmore has failed to carve out a bigger role. He's still playing just 17 minutes a night off the bench and is doing very little other than scoring. He's shooting a career-low 28.6% from three and is just 4-22 from the field in his last two games.

Whitmore still has time to get it turned around, but if that sound bite from the tweet has any credence to it, he could already be starting to develop a bad reputation as a guy who isn't willing to put in the work to get better and earn those minutes. Talent can get you to the league, but only those players who are willing to continue to hone their craft and develop their game will thrive.

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