Don't have an account?
Join the Best Live Fantasy Chat Community!

Lost password? [X]

Receive free daily analysis:

NFL    NBA    MLB

Already have an account? Log in here.

[X]

Forgot Password


[X]

The Cut List (Week 18) - Time to Let Go?


Welcome to the last Cut List before the July 31 trade deadline. Emphasis on dead, because there has still been little action on the trade front.

The next week should be pretty fun if things heat up. For now, however, players are on the team they're on, and judgments should be made accordingly.

Stats are through Friday, July 26, unless otherwise noted. Weekly reminders: Recommendations are for mixed leagues. Recommendations in one league size obviously apply to smaller leagues. You can also feel free to drop a shallower suggestion in a deeper league, but the dividing line is generally there for a reason. And, as usual, you can find ideas on how to replace your cut candidates at the Waiver Wire Pickup List.

Editor's Note: Get our 2020 MLB Premium Pass for 50% off, with exclusive access to our draft kit, premium rankings, player projections and outlooks, our top sleepers, dynasty and prospect rankings, 20 preseason and in-season lineup tools, and over 200 days of expert DFS research and tools. Sign Up Now!

 

10-Team Cut Candidates

Hunter Renfroe (OF, SD)

Have pitchers caught up with Renfroe, he of 28 home runs? Only one of those has come since the All-Star Break as the 27-year-old has been hitting .186/.283/.302 in the second half. It hasn't been the second half for long, of course, but the quality of Renfroe's contact never quite justified just how lofty his power output was: by Statcast, his .243 batting average is almost entirely deserved, but the .570 slugging average, not so much. (His xBA and xSLG are .239 and .488.)

Renfroe has also been nearly a one-trick pony. Four steals to go with the 28 bombs has been a useful chip-in, but the batting average, 54 RBI, and 46 runs scored -- no doubt a product of San Diego's .308 team OBP, which ranks 13th in the NL, as well as Renfroe's usual fifth spot in the batting order -- have left some to be desired.

This is one of those situations where the line between 10-, 12-, and 14-team leagues is fairly sharp. Renfroe is difficult to let go in anything but a shallow league given the 28 homers. But he's not invincible.

Mike Minor (SP, TEX)

It's been a rough July for Minor, who has posted a 6.04 ERA and 1.48 WHIP in just 22 1/3 innings over four starts as hitters have gone off for a .276/.354/.563 slash line. To be fair, two of those four starts have come against Houston's juggernaut, one at home and one away. He also lost his control in a home start against the Angels, while his most recent start came at Seattle.

Does this amount to a cut case, especially if Minor is traded to a club with a park more suitable for pitching in? That question points out some of the difficulty in making roster decisions with the trade deadline so close. If a player is subject to trade rumors it's probably safest to wait and see what happens before taking action, and Minor falls into that category. If it's August 1 and Minor is still a Ranger, that strengthens the case for cutting him.

Of course, given his full-season performance and what he might still be able to pull in the fantasy trade market, he may be more of a sell in a trade. The flip side of that is the recent struggles could make him less palatable to a potential trade partner. Ultimately, Minor's 4.44 xFIP demonstrates the risk in holding him, especially if he stays in Texas.

Greg Holland (RP, ARI)

By the time this comes out, Holland could already have jumped into the 14-team cut tier. As long as he still officially has the closer job, however, he's difficult to cut.

But not impossible to cut. The 3.51 ERA, 1.29 WHIP, and 28.6 K% would be just fine in a starting pitcher. For a closer, they are borderline. For a middle reliever or setup man, they are not usable.

The performance plus the risk that Holland is soon demoted makes it not too soon to cut him out of your shallow leagues. Once loss of his role becomes a reality, he can be gone everywhere.

 

12-Team Cut Candidates

Scooter Gennett (2B, CIN)

This is an ex-stash that is not quite working out. Although it's only been 57 plate appearances since Gennett returned, he has struck out 17 times while walking only once to produce a .185/.211/.222 slash line, with zero homers. His playing time has been inconsistent, with Saturday being his third game out of the lineup in the past seven.

And what production are owners holding out for? Yes, Gennett hit .295 in 2017 and .310 last season. It was fueled by a .339 and .358 BABIP, respectively, for someone who was in the .310-.320 range the previous three seasons (2014-16). And it was probably the lucky kind of BABIP, given xBA's of .252 and .259 those two seasons.

So Gennett's batting average was always somewhat a bit of a fluke, and the counting stats -- mid 20's home runs, a handful of steals, solid R+RBI totals (over full seasons) -- were already fine but unspectacular, and will only decline if the hits keep not falling. With the injury possibly still lingering as well, we've seen enough of Gennett this season.

Domingo Santana (OF, SEA)

Things have gotten very thin for Santana of late. He's only been in really big trouble since the All-Star Break, a period of just 10 games thanks to an elbow issue that kept him out from July 24-26, but also of just a .143/.211/.229 line. But he also only has one home run since June 29, and his six steals this season are a bit misleading if used to project going forward: five of those came May 27 or earlier.

Santana provided shades of his 30 HR/15 SB 2017 campaign to begin 2019, but as Seattle's offense has faded (in July they are 8% below average by wRC+), so has Santana's. The Mariners put a claim in on Keon Broxton, which could be a precautionary measure for Santana's elbow or a desperate attempt to infuse new life into the Seattle outfield.

If the elbow issue lingers, that will also be a problem for Santana. The evaporation of his steals since late May is potentially the deciding factor here.

Jordan Yamamoto (SP, MIA)

Two starts ago, Yamamoto was working on a 1.59 and a 4-0 record in five starts. Now, after Saturday, he's 4-2 with a 3.64 ERA. And in those two rough starts, his season BABIP has gone down, from .190 to .182.

Yamamoto's 18th percentile fastball velocity and control issues (a 13.1 BB%) limit his upside, at least in 2019. He throws several different pitches, but hitters appear on their way to catching on.

Posting four wins in his first five starts was also pretty much a fluke, given the team he pitches for. It's not a squad that is going to create many wins going forward, even if Yamamoto finds a way to find the strike zone a little more often.

 

14-Team Cut Candidates

Adam Jones (OF, ARI)

Since April 19, Jones is hitting .258/.297/.390 with eight home runs and two steals. His season line of .271/.320/.434 doesn't look too great anymore either, but it's still being held by a great first few weeks.

Jones' playing time has followed the same long, negative trend. He started in 23 of the team's first 24 games and appeared in the 24th. Since then he's played in 70 and started in just 64 of 80 team games.

When the Diamondbacks called Yasmany Tomas back up, they effectively, at least in part, signaled that Jones' playing time would only decrease further. If Jones is traded he will become a bench piece and, given his performance as well, remaining owners don't need to wait for that to happen to cut loose.

Miguel Cabrera (DH/1B, DET)

This week's "graduate" from Cut-in-12 to Cut-in-14 is perhaps the greatest hitter of his generation (the one immediately preceding Mike Trout's). But that was a long time hence: Miggy is mustering just a .275/.338/.361 line this season. Since the previous check-in on June 23, he's hit an even more unfortunate .217/.283/.277.

This is name-value-only production. In those 23 games, he has scored six times and driven in seven runs. With neither half of a power-speed combo present anymore and playing for Detroit's still-anemic club, it's no surprise. And it won't get better.

Cabrera has also sat to start three times in the past week. Seems like the Tigers are finally going to ease him further into his career twilight. But there's no reason any fantasy manager needs him anymore.

Yusei Kikuchi (SP, SEA)

Frankly, it's a bit late to be suggesting a deeper-league cut of Kikuchi. But he does remain on several rosters. The question is why. The 5.21 ERA, 1.46 WHIP, 6.6 K/9, it's all bad. And with a .296 BABIP and 5.14 xFIP, Kikuchi has deserved his fate.

It hasn't always been this bad, which makes the fact that is now this bad only worse. Kikuchi held a 3.43 ERA after May 19. That was his first 11 starts. His next 11 starts: 7.21. The WHIP has undergone a similar ballooning, from 1.08 to a nearly incomprehensible 1.88. It's been fueled by a walk rate explosion from 5.8% to 9.3%.

Kikuchi's most recent start was alright, with two runs allowed in 6 2/3 innings. But it came against Detroit. Lest you did not believe how bad this offense is from the Cabrera entry, note that the team's .232/.290/.381 slash line ranks them last in the American League in OBP, SLG, and OPS, and ahead of only Toronto in batting average. Don't be fooled by that last Kikuchi start; stream his spot.

 

Last Week's Updates

Player Last Week (links to piece) This Week Reasoning
Eric Hosmer Cut in 10 Cut in 10 No change in profile, except he's hit cleanup a couple times, but that's not enough to salvage value
Joey Lucchesi Cut in 10 Hold The usual caveat where if you paid me no mind last week, the recent start shouldn't cause any change in heart
Ian Kennedy Cut in 10 Cut in 10 No change in profile, or in team
Austin Riley Cut in 12 Cut in 12 No change in profile
Nicholas Castellanos Cut in 12 Cut in 10 With the trade deadline closer, you can hold in 12 if you held last week, but even a deal might not save shallower value
Nomar Mazara Cut in 12 Hold Joey Gallo injury, two-HR week, possible trade all reasons to wait-and-see as July 31 approaches
Wil Myers Cut in 14 Cut in 12 Has made a few starts again already and Franmil Reyes is banged up, but struggles not worth it at standard sizes
Rick Porcello Cut in 14 Cut in 14 Held the Yankees down relatively well, but no real change in profile from one start
Blake Treinen Cut in 14 Cut in 14 No change in profile

More Fantasy Baseball Busts and Avoids




More Recent Articles

 

Biggest Breakouts Of 2019: Wide Receivers

As we enter the initial phase of offseason activities you have recently completed a painstaking process of creating and managing rosters, with the goal of winning fantasy championships in 2019. Now, many of you have already shifted your focus toward planning your drafts in Best Ball and redraft leagues, while others are contemplating how you... Read More


Fantasy Football Starts and Sits: Conference Championships Matchups Analysis

Welcome to our NFL Conference Championships matchups analysis and start/sit column for fantasy football. We'll be covering both of the AFC and NFC contests from the Sunday slate, helping you make the best decisions for your DFS contests this weekend. Be sure to check back regularly because this article will be updated as news comes in regarding injuries... Read More


Conference Championships Fantasy Football Staff Rankings

Below you will find all of RotoBaller's fantasy football weekly rankings, tiers, player news and stats for the 2019 NFL season. Our Ranking Wizard displays our staff's rankings for various league formats, all in one easy place. Here's what you'll find: Weekly PPR Rankings Weekly Half-PPR Rankings Weekly Standard Rankings Dynasty League Rankings     Fantasy... Read More


Tight End ADP Winners and Losers: 2019 Season Review

I've always believed that it is easier to lose a fantasy championship than to win it on draft day. It makes sense, as sure-fire players are expected to reward their owners with a lower risk-factor than the other way around and thus they're always drafter earlier. If they put up a season-long dud, though, you'll... Read More


Running Back ADP Winners and Losers: 2019 Season Review

I've always believed that it is easier to lose a fantasy championship than to win it on draft day. It makes sense, a sure-fire player is expected to reward his owners with a lower risk-factor than the other way around and thus they're always drafter earlier. If they end up as a season-long dud, though,... Read More


Dynasty Players to Sell in 2020

Pierre Camus and Chris Mangano share their top sell candidates for dynasty football leagues in the 2020 fantasy football preseason. Like and subscribe to the RotoBaller channel on Youtube to get all our latest podcasts and catch us on iTunes and BlogTalkRadio as well! Be sure to also tune into RotoBaller Radio on SiriusXM (channel Sirius 210,... Read More


Biggest Surprises of 2019: Tight End

The 2019 NFL season was anything but predictable. I mean, the Tennessee Titans made the AFC title game! Andrew Luck retired right before the season! [Insert one of many, many other things here, because all lists need three items but I couldn't decide between all the possible third options.] One position where things at the... Read More


Wide Receiver ADP Winners and Losers: 2019 Season Review

I've always believed that it is easier to lose a fantasy championship than to win it on draft day. It makes sense, as sure-fire players are expected to reward his owners with a lower risk-factor than the other way around and thus they're always drafter earlier. If they put up a season-long dud, though, you'll... Read More


Biggest Busts of 2019: Quarterback

The 2019 NFL season is over, and it's time to look back on what happened. 2019 was a year where some quarterbacks -- Lamar Jackson, Josh Allen -- leaped up to the top of the fantasy charts, while other guys faded from where they were expected to perform. Today, I want to talk about three... Read More


Four and Out: Fantasy Outlooks for Divisional Round Losers

For the four teams that were eliminated in the Divisional Round of the NFL Playoffs, the offseason has begun. For many fantasy football owners, the days have already started counting down to next season. Owners in dynasty leagues have started to mull over their decisions.  How some guys perform in the playoffs can certainly alter... Read More


Quarterback ADP Winners and Losers: 2019 Season Review

I've always believed that it is easier to lose a fantasy championship than to win it on draft day. It makes sense, as sure-fire players are expected to reward their owners with a lower risk-factor than the other way around and thus they're always drafter earlier. If they put up a season-long dud, though, you'll... Read More


Biggest Busts of 2019: Wide Receivers

After a very interesting season of fantasy football action, many owners were left with a bitter taste in their mouth from a few of the “elite” NFL wide receivers. While Michael Thomas dominated and Julio Jones was his usual reliable self, not all was good if you played it safe by taking a receiver early.... Read More


Quarterback Risers and Fallers: 2019 Season Review

This article will examine the biggest risers and fallers at the quarterback position, which proved to be the most impactful in fantasy leagues as is often the case. Of the top-25 players in fantasy this season, 18 of them played the QB position and none of the 18 scored less than 280 fantasy points on... Read More


XFL Fantasy Football Rankings (Preseason)

As of this writing, there is exactly one month until XFL regular-season action begins. On February 8, the latest upstart professional league will kickoff (again) with spring football. It goes without saying that we hope it goes better than the first time, back in 2001, and lasts longer than the AAF. Before you settle in... Read More


Wide Receiver Risers and Fallers: 2019 Season Review

We continue our series covering the biggest risers and fallers of 2019 with the wide receiver position. I'll look at both 2018 and 2019 statistical outcomes from every player, contrast their performances, calculate differences in each category and come up with the most prominent names going forward. This past season, receivers didn't dominate in fantasy,... Read More