The Cut List - Time to Let Go? Who To Consider Dropping for Fantasy Baseball (Week 3)

April 14, 2025

The Cut List for Week 3 of 2025. Jamie analyzes potential fantasy baseball busts, overvalued players, and injured players who you may want to consider dropping.

Welcome back to The Cut List as we head into Week 3 of the 2025 season. For every add, there is usually also a drop. For those unfamiliar, this is our weekly article looking at players whom fantasy managers might be considering cutting from their teams and struggling players who need a closer look.

We'll look at players who are worthy of a drop, players who are worth monitoring for replacing, and someone on the hot seat who is worth holding on to... for now. Those of you experienced Cut List readers will know I'm a strong advocate for not making knee-jerk reactions. A bad week or two shouldn't be a reason to push the panic button and dump someone, especially this early in the season.

As the year progresses, there will be stronger cases to drop underperforming players. If there's ever someone you want me to take a look at, drop their name on Reddit, the RotoBaller Discord chat rooms, or reach out to me on X (@Baseball_Jimbo). Maybe you'll see them included next week. All stats and rostered rates (taken from Yahoo!) reflect when this piece was written.

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Worth Dropping and Replacing?

Lane Thomas - OF, Cleveland Guardians - 54% rostered

As I keep preaching, we shouldn't be making snap decisions based on performance this early in the season. Thomas's start has been ice cold, and a wrist injury has seen him miss time this week. But hitting .167/.212/.200 after eight games still isn't enough to justify dropping him.

Going back to last season and looking at Thomas's numbers since joining the Guardians does help to justify it. Thomas had a solid season with the Nationals in 2024 before being traded. In 77 games, he had eight home runs, 40 RBI, 42 runs, and 28 stolen bases with a .253/.331/.407 slash line.

As a member of the Guardians, Thomas hit .209/.267/.390 with seven homers, 23 RBI, 23 runs, and four steals (55 games). The power was there, but Thomas struggled to hit, get on base, and ultimately steal bases. It's not like the Guardians weren't aggressive on the bases last year.

The Nationals led the league in steals (223), but the Guardians were fifth (148). This year, only four teams have fewer steals than Cleveland (six). It's still early days, so that will likely change. But with so much of Thomas's fantasy value tied in his stolen base ability, the signs haven't been good.

Thomas hasn't featured since getting hit on the wrist in Tuesday's game. He does appear set to avoid an IL stint but even if there's any lingering soreness, it will hamper Thomas offensively. Thomas isn't in a position where he can afford to have anything negatively impacting his bat.

Stephen Vogt said Lane Thomas (right wrist) was feeling "much better" Wednesday night after undergoing treatment. Still a day to day situation, and he could be available off the bench today.

— Tim Stebbins (@tim_stebbins) April 10, 2025

Verdict: With so many leagues using fewer outfield spots, there are generally solid options available on waivers. And it makes rostering strugglers even tougher. In deeper leagues, where the available outfield pool is thin, Thomas is certainly worth holding onto. In shallower leagues or those where you start three or four outfielders, I'd have no qualms about looking to replace the Guardians' outfielder.

Jordan Romano - RP, Philadelphia Phillies - 53% rostered

There was an expectation that Romano would be closing for the Phillies when they signed him to a one-year, $8.5 million contract this offseason. While he does have a save to his name, Romano hasn't pitched well and is not in the reckoning for high-leverage work.

Part of Romano's struggles can be attributed to a decline in his fastball velocity. After averaging 96.4 MPH on his four-seamer in 2024, he's averaging 94.8 MPH with it this year. Romano's 10.50 ERA (6.0 IP) is unsightly, and he's allowed two or more earned runs in three of his seven outings.

In three outings in which Romano hasn't allowed a run, his fastball averaged at least 96.0 MPH. In Romano's three appearances where he gave up at least two earned runs, his fastball averaged below 95.0 MPH. That little difference appears to have a significant impact on his results.

Jordan Romano said before the game he thinks the Phils found a mechanical issue to explain his recent drop in velocity. He sounded confident it would return. Fastball averaged 95.9 mph, touched 96.9 mph in a scoreless eighth inning.

— Todd Zolecki (@ToddZolecki) April 11, 2025

On Saturday, Romano needed only five pitches to get through the eighth inning. He allowed one hit before Nolan Arenado grounded into a double play. Romano's fastball still only averaged 95.0 MPH, but at least he could record his second hold of the season.

When you only have one other pitch available to you (a slider), any sort of noticeable decline in your fastball velocity can be impactful. Romano must hope his mechanical tweak can yield consistent results with his fastball velocity.

Jose Alvarado is the only other Phillies pitcher with a save so far (three). He looks like he's the main closer in Philly. Notably, Orion Kerkering was warming up on Wednesday in case Alvarado couldn't get through the ninth inning. Kerkering seems to be the next option to close out games.

Verdict: Until Romano can find some consistency in his fastball velocity, his results will be up-and-down too. If Romano finds an issue and can rectify it over the coming weeks, he could factor into the closer situation again. For now, he's only worth rostering in leagues counting holds.

Hold For Now

Tanner Houck - SP, Boston Red Sox - 66% rostered

If you followed along last week, you will have noticed I mentioned multiple times that pitchers warrant more than a couple of starts before being dropped. While there are some exceptions, we must also factor in that starting pitchers get hurt... A lot. Finding them on waivers becomes tough.

So, while Houck hasn't had a great start to 2025, he's still worth holding on to. His outing on Wednesday should have hopefully reinforced that. Houck allowed one earned run on five hits and two walks (6.2 IP). It wasn't enough for the win, and he only struck out two batters.

But you weren't targeting strikeouts when drafting Houck. His 20.7% K% ranked in the 32nd percentile last year. The lack of quality contact that Houck allows made him a target in drafts. Houck's 55.5% GB% (ground-ball rate) ranked in the 93rd percentile in 2024.

Through three starts, Houck has a 44.9% GB% (53rd percentile). It's still too small of a sample to panic about. And his 50.0% GB% on Wednesday was his highest of the season so far. Houck is set to face the Rays to begin next week, which looks like it will be somewhat of a friendly matchup.

It wouldn't come as a shock if Houck's ERA dropped below 4.00 after his next start. Houck lowered his ERA from 6.52 to 4.41 after Wednesday's start. A reminder of how quickly things can change in April. If you drafted Houck, he's someone I'm holding in all but the shallowest leagues.

Walker Buehler - SP, Boston Red Sox - 49% rostered

Buehler is the second Red Sox pitcher to feature this week. He is the second Red Sox pitcher to have had a nice bounce-back start against the Blue Jays this week after a rough pair of starts to begin 2025. After three starts, Buehler has a 1-1 W-L record, 5.74 ERA, 1.28 WHIP, and 14 Ks (15.2 IP).

Buehler was tagged for nine earned runs in his first two starts (9.1 IP). So, restricting Toronto to one run on four hits and a walk (6.1 IP) on Thursday was a welcome reminder of his abilities. The seven strikeouts were also welcomed by his fantasy managers.

Despite his ERA still being unsightly, Buehler owns a 3.34 xFIP and 3.33 SIERA. His 3.0% BB% (walk rate) helps with that. Another year removed from TJS (Tommy John Surgery) Buehler looked more like his old self on Thursday. A promising sign of things to come.

"I just felt more violent than I have in a long time. That's how I play when I’m good."

Safe to say Walker Buehler was feeling good tonight pic.twitter.com/wGwN5M4L9l

— NESN (@NESN) April 11, 2025

It is worth noting that Buehler's fastball velocity is down. It's averaged 93.5 MPH so far (95.0 MPH in 2024). That's likely not a surprise, given he underwent a second Tommy John Surgery (TJS) in 2022. He's only totaled 91.o IP in the Majors since returning from that second surgery.

Unlike Romano, who only throws a fastball and a slider, Buehler can mitigate the drop in velocity with an arsenal that contains five other pitches. And he's been using all of them significantly. Buehler is becoming a different pitcher but can still succeed with this iteration of himself.

That pitch mix will become more important if Buehler's fastball continues to average 1.5 MPH less than last year. Given that he's now in his eighth year as a Major Leaguer, Beuhler has the experience to still be a solid rotation arm. After Thursday's outing, Buehler deserves more time on fantasy rosters.

On the Hot Seat

Dylan Crews - OF, Washington Nationals - 73% rostered

Let's start with the positives. Well, positive. Crews is still fast. Despite having only five hits and two walks this year, he has still stolen three bases. Crews' 29.1 ft/sec sprint speed ranked in the 96th percentile. It would just be a lot more useful if he got on base enough to maximize it.

Earlier this week, fantasy managers would have been hopeful of a turnaround from Crews. After going 1-for-25 to begin the season, Crews had a two-hit performance last Sunday and another on Tuesday. He's been hitless in the two games since, sitting out Saturday's contest.

My biggest concern about Crews going into this week was the possibility of a demotion. It felt like another bad few games may have seen the Nationals send Crews to Triple-A. Given that he's only had 49 games at the highest Minor League level, it might not have been the worst idea.

Signs of life at the plate may have given Crews more time to pick things up offensively. Even though Crews had his ninth hitless game on Friday, there were some encouraging signs. His 348-foot flyout in the seventh inning highlighted what was an unfortunate night at the plate.

Man, Dylan Crews has made loud contact three times tonight with nothing to show for it. Unlucky for the rookie outfielder.

— Bobby Blanco (@Bobby_Blanco) April 12, 2025

Crews also has a couple of interesting metrics. His 11.5% Barrel% is in the 70th percentile. Crews' 72.6 MPH average bat speed also grades well, ranking in the 63rd percentile. Of course, you need more than that to be a successful Major League hitter. But there are at least some signs of hope.

The upside and speed are what made people draft Crews this year. Those two factors remain. We're assessing a player with a total of 177 plate appearances in the Majors. It's still a bit early to bail on Crews. Providing the Nationals show patience, fantasy managers should consider doing so, too.

Reader Requests

As in previous years, we're keen to hear who you want us to analyze. If there is anyone who you want to include here on next week's Cut List, drop their names on the Reddit thread or over on the RotoBaller Discord chat rooms. Alternatively, you can reach out to me on X and we'll endeavor to cover some requests each week.

Before we begin this section, a quick thank you to everyone. Last week's Reddit post went nuts and ended up getting over 300 total comments. I could easily have included a dozen more players here. I've opted for the three most popular names that are over 50% rostered and haven't been included in the previous sections.

Brenton Doyle - OF, Colorado Rockies - 95% rostered

I very nearly excluded Doyle from inclusion. Many will wonder why a player hitting .321/.357/.547 with three homers, 12 RBI, seven runs, and one steal would even feature. The reason I stayed with Doyle despite his numbers is to remind me of how quickly things can change in April.

This time last week, Doyle had a .222/.263/.250 slash line. One RBI and one run were all he had to show for the first eight games of the season. Three homers in four games have turned Doyle from someone being questioned as a possible drop to the 17th-ranked outfielder on Yahoo!.

Statcast Profiles aren't particularly useful two weeks into the season. But it's noticeable that Doyle's expected numbers are so high. They're reflective of the numbers he's put up so far in 2025.

Coors Field had a role in Doyle's upturn. But that's true of any Rockies player and is a positive reason to draft them. It's also a reason not to panic when a Rockies player has a poor series on the road.

Every fantasy manager empathizes with someone who gets frustrated when one of their early-round draft picks struggles. But there's a reason why they get drafted in the earlier rounds. And if they go 5-for-30 one week in July, would you even notice? Patience is the key in April.

Doyle has missed the last two games with a quad injury. There's not been any suggestion that an IL stint is forthcoming and the Rockies expect Doyle to be back in the starting lineup soon. It's still something to monitor closely over the next few days.

Jake Burger - 1B/3B, Texas Rangers - 90% rostered

Like Doyle, I wasn't concerned about Burger's slow start last week. I'm still not concerned this week. Unlike Doyle, Burger is yet to get going. He's hitting .140/.173/.280 with two homers, seven RBI, five runs, and no steals (14 games). You drafted Burger for the power, and he's at least shown some pop.

His 11.8% Barrel% ranks in the 71st percentile, and his 75.2 MPH bat speed ranks in the 92nd percentile. Both are what you'd expect from Burger and similar to his 2024 numbers. Last year's numbers also came after a slow start.

Burger hit .228/.281/.421 in April, .213/.231/.270 in May, and .213/.260/.372 in June. He still ended the year with 29 homers, 76 RBI, 68 runs, one steal, and a .250/.301/.460 slash line. That was while playing for the Marlins and their 27th-ranked offense in runs scored (637).

This is the first time in the Majors that Burger finds himself in a hitter-friendly environment. The Rangers offense hasn't clicked into gear yet but they have more talent than many teams. They also boast a ballpark that ranks as the fourth-best for home runs for right-handed hitters (RHH) according to Statcast.

Burger has ended the last three seasons with a .250 batting average. He's also hit 63 homers in 278 games over the previous two years. With his contact numbers still looking fine and a .125 BABIP, I'm not concerned about Burger. If his numbers haven't picked up by the end of April, I'll begin to worry.

Spencer Steer - 1B/OF, Cincinnati Reds - 72% rostered

Steer has been dealing with a shoulder issue since early spring. That has limited him to solely playing as the Reds' designated hitter (DH). And the results so far have not been good. He's hitting .119/.196/.238 with one homer, three RBI, five runs, and no steals.

The good news for Steer's fantasy managers is that his shoulder looks like it's improving. A possible return to first base duties is nearing as he begins a throwing routine in the coming days. If the shoulder was still a big issue, the Reds wouldn't have Steer working on throws from first.

Terry Francona said he’s pretty confident McLain will return on Tuesday. Diaz will throw back to backs over the next two days in Triple-A. Spencer Steer will take his throwing work to the next step and start working on throws from first over the next few days.

— Charlie Goldsmith (@CharlieG__) April 11, 2025

That doesn't mean he'll come through things unscathed. The throwing program may trigger some issues and result in a significant setback. It's definitely something to keep an eye on. Fingers crossed that Steer can start building up to play defense again and the bat begins to warm up too.

The shoulder does look like it's causing Steer problems offensively. His 69.9 MPH bat speed is down from last year (71.6 MPH) and 2023 (71.5 MPH). Although his hard-hit metrics haven't stood out throughout his Major League career, they've regressed in 2025.

I understand fantasy managers' frustrations. We've seen this story before: someone plays through an injury with disappointing results. For now, I'll be waiting to see how Steer does in the throwing workouts. Providing there are no setbacks, Steer warrants some additional time.

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