X
Lost password?

Don't have an account?
Gain Access Now

X

Receive free daily analysis

NFL
NBA
NHL
NASCAR
CFB
MLB
MMA
PGA
ESPORTS
BETTING

Already have an account? Log In

X

Forgot Password


POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Daily Stats & Leaders
All Pitcher Matchups
Compare Any Players
Compare Any Players
Rookies & Call-Ups
24x7 News and Alerts

Statcast Review - 2018 Pitching Leaders (Exit Velocity)

Frost has layered baseball diamonds across the country. The holidays are the darkest times for baseball junkies, with the World Series miles in the rearview mirror and Spring Training too far away. Luckily at RotoBaller, we try to match the flurry of real front office activity with ample offseason fantasy content of our own.

Exit velocity has become mainstream for this generation of baseball. We discussed it last season to evaluate rising and falling starting pitchers. With a caveat. While exit velocity holds some indication of a pitcher’s (mis)fortunes, the hitter mainly controls the batted-ball outcome. Therefore, the most reliable way to measure a pitcher with exit velocity is consistency.

We’ll outline six pitchers, three from each circuit, to target in fantasy drafts next season. Our sample size includes 47 pitchers that experienced at least 500 batted-ball events in 2018. For reference, the median exit velocity was 88.0 MPH overall, 92.4 MPH for FB/LDs and 84.5 MPH for grounders.

Be sure to check all of our fantasy baseball lineup tools and resources:

 

Exit Velocity Risers in 2018

Jacob deGrom (New York Mets)

This one’s obvious, but Jacob deGrom was fourth in average exit velocity at a paltry 85.5 MPH. Importantly, that figure was identical to his 2017 result, so there weren’t any quirks in the Cy Young campaign. deGrom’s age-30 season was his most dominant, inducing hard contact on just 27% of batted-balls and whiffs on 15% of pitches. His fastball averaged a ridiculous 96 MPH, and his peripheral arsenal is one of the most diverse and elite in baseball. The point of highlighting deGrom here isn’t to regurgitate his excellence; it’s to make the argument that he should be the top pitcher off the board. Come draft day, his value should merit consideration equivalent to perennial first-rounders like Max Scherzer and Chris Sale.

Miles Mikolas (St. Louis Cardinals)

Miles Mikolas emerged from three seasons overseas with the Yomiuri Giants to finish 2018 as a top-15 fantasy starter. His resume showed minimal red flags, achieving a superb 2.83 ERA (3.28 FIP) via pinpoint control and a killer slider. His worm-burner tendencies (49% GB%) allotted him the league’s third-lowest exit velocity of 85.4 MPH and just 82.5 MPH on grounders. By weaning off a mediocre heater and developing a slider-curveball combo, Mikolas used weak contact to his advantage. His age (30) and limited sample size may discourage fantasy players on draft day, but Mikolas genuinely reinvented himself in Japan. Back in 2014, Mikolas was a straight fly ball pitcher. Those tendencies are now inverted. He should make a serviceable SP3 for fantasy squads in 2019.

Kyle Freeland (Colorado Rockies)

Kyle Freeland proved why he was the eighth overall pick in 2014, parlaying a decent rookie season in 2017 to a 17-7 record, 2.85 ERA and 1.25 WHIP in 2018. Freeland made positive strides in SwStr% (9.0%), first-pitch strikes (62%) and resulting strikeouts (7.7 K/9). His average exit velocity year-over-year remained steady at 85.9 MPH, so he’s proven he can miss sweet spots. Freeland was a workhorse in 2018, surpassing six innings in 26 of 33 starts and should continue ascending on an impressive young staff. Freeland is a ground ball pitcher (46% GB%), so the Coors Field factor shouldn’t be overly dwelled upon. Draft stock for Rockies pitchers has been structurally discounted in all our minds, so take advantage of the relatively cheap price tag.

Jose Berrios (Minnesota Twins)

Fantasy players will likely remember Jose Berrios’ inconsistent second half where he posted a 4.15 ERA and 1.40 WHIP. What we’ll struggle to recall is that through his first 20 starts, Berrios held a 4.4 K/BB and tallied four outings of 10-plus strikeouts. Despite the frustrating splits, Berrios has consistently been on the leaderboard for lowest exit velocity, which was 86.1 MPH in 2018. Still just 24 years old, Berrios’ primary issue has been control, but when he’s on, he’s borderline unhittable. With just two good pitches, a development of a reliable third option could be a game changer. For a rising ace that offers a mid-3.00 ERA and a strikeout per nine, his volatility has masked the obvious talent. He’s worth the risk as an SP2 in the early-middle rounds.

Dallas Keuchel (Free Agent)

Dallas Keuchel is no stranger to the exit velocity conversation. In 2015 and 2017, Keuchel was in the top-ten for lowest exit velocity. In 2018, that number spiked to 87.0 MPH. So who is the real Dallas Keuchel? Keuchel had a serviceable 2018 season, registering a 3.74 ERA (3.69 FIP) and 19 starts allowing two or fewer earned runs. If the free agent market transpires like last season, it could be a while before veterans like Keuchel find a new home. For fantasy purposes, Keuchel is a known commodity. He should be a slam dunk for quality starts and a functional WHIP. Players without teams tend to fall unfairly too far in draft rooms, and Keuchel could provide SP3 returns at an SP5 price.

Marco Gonzales (Seattle Mariners)

Marco who? Turns out, Marco Gonzales enjoyed a breakout campaign in 2018. The former first-rounder posted a strong 3.43 FIP that was masked by a 4.00 ERA while holding a sturdy 4.5 K/BB ratio in his first full season as a starter. Admittedly, Gonzales was just average in exit velocity at 88.1 MPH, but he’s shaping up to be a dark horse sleeper in 2019. His 90 MPH heater is obviously meh, and the 7.8 K/9 just isn’t going to generate meaningful buzz. But the M’s will likely give their youngster a long leash. Gonzales could break Spring Training as the Opening Day starter. With three above-average pitches and a clear path to innings, Gonzales merits attention in the backend of drafts. Every fantasy roster needs a rotational SP5, and Gonzales fits the profile.

More 2018 MLB Year In Review Articles




POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Daily Stats & Leaders
All Pitcher Matchups
Compare Any Players
Compare Any Players
Rookies & Call-Ups
24x7 News and Alerts

REAL-TIME FANTASY NEWS

Tyler Soderstrom

Returns to A's Lineup
Tyler Warren

Sidelined on Wednesday with Toe Injury
Jaylen Waddle

Questionable for Week 3 Against Buffalo
Joe Burrow

Bengals Not Closing the Door on Joe Burrow Returning This Year
CFB

LaNorris Sellers to Play Against Missouri?
Kyle Tucker

Progress has "Plateaued"
Isaac Paredes

has "Outside Chance" to Return This Weekend
CFB

Kaidon Salter Expected To Start for Colorado on Saturday
Willson Contreras

Goes on 10-Day Injured List, Done for Season
Justin Fields

Ruled Out for Week 3 Due to Concussion
Jayden Reed

Out Indefinitely After Foot and Shoulder Surgery
Washington Commanders

Preston Smith Signs With Commanders
Trey Jemison III

Joins Knicks on Two-Way Contract
Kevin McCullar Jr.

Signs New Two-Way Deal With Knicks
Matt Ryan

Returns to Knicks on Exhibit 10 Contract
New York Knicks

Alex Len Signs Exhibit 9 Deal With Knicks
Nickeil Alexander-Walker

Expected to Take on Larger Offensive Role With Hawks
Thomas Sorber

Undergoes Surgery
Dominic Canzone

Has Five-Hit, Three-Homer Game Tuesday
Cal Raleigh

Sets Single-Season Home Run Record for a Switch-Hitter
Jayden Reed

Undergoes Clavicle and Foot Surgeries, Out for Foreseeable Future
Bo Bichette

to Miss Rest of Regular Season
Zach Neto

Placed on 10-Day Injured List With Hand Injury
Yordan Alvarez

Out on Tuesday, Dealing With "Significant" Ankle Sprain
Aaron Jones Sr.

Vikings Place Aaron Jones Sr. on Injured Reserve With Hamstring Injury
CFB

Diego Pavia Refutes Report of Seeking Seventh Collegiate Season
Christian Kirk

Expected to Return in Week 3
CFB

Diego Pavia Seeking Another Year of Eligibility
Tarik Skubal

on Track to Start Thursday
CFB

Kevorian Barnes Questionable Against SMU
Bo Bichette

has Short-Term Knee Injury, Could Return for Postseason
Tosan Evbuomwan

Joins Knicks
NBA

Kai Jones Links Up With EuroLeague Team
Bismack Biyombo

Returns to Spurs
Bones Hyland

Rejoins Timberwolves
Kobe Bufkin

Moves to Brooklyn
Trey Yesavage

Sets Franchise Strikeout Record On Monday
Yordan Alvarez

To Receive MRI For Sprained Left Ankle On Tuesday
Willson Contreras

Exits Early Monday With Right-Biceps Tightness
Yordan Alvarez

Exits With Ankle Sprain
Brock Bowers

Officially Active on Monday Night
Jauan Jennings

Day-to-Day With Ankle Injury
Logan O'Hoppe

Activated Off Seven-Day Injured List
CBJ

Denton Mateychuk Dealing With Groin Issue
Bo Horvat

Fine for Training Camp
Kirby Dach

on Track to Be Ready for Opening Night
Jose Altuve

Returns Against Rangers
J.J. McCarthy

Expected to Miss 2-4 Weeks With High-Ankle Sprain
J.J. McCarthy

Likely Out for Week 3 With High-Ankle Sprain
Jean Silva

Gets Finished For The First Time In His Career
Aaron Jones Sr.

Unlikely to Play in Week 3 Due to Hamstring Injury
Diego Lopes

Returns To The Win Column
Jayden Daniels

' Week 3 Status in Doubt
Rob Font

Outclassed In The Noche UFC 3 Co-Main Event
David Martinez

Wins His Second UFC Fight
Jared Gordon

Suffers Brutal TKO Loss At Noche UFC 3
Rafa Garcia

Wins Back-To-Back Fights
Brian Thomas Jr.

Dealing with Wrist Injury
Dustin Stoltzfus

Drops A Decision At Noche UFC 3
Kelvin Gastelum

Gets Back In The Win Column
Diego Ferreira

Suffers Second-Round TKO
Alexander Hernandez

Extends His Win Streak With A Brutal TKO
Quang Le

Suffers First-Round Knockout
Santiago Luna

Shines In His UFC Debut
Christopher Bell

Earns his First Bristol Cup Series Victory
Alex Bowman

Falls Short of Advancing Through Cup Series Playoffs
Chase Briscoe

Collects his Third Top-10 Finish at Bristol
Ryan Blaney

Strong Top-Five Bristol Performance Advances him to the Playoffs
Corey Heim

Earns his First Career Cup Series Top-10 Finish at Bristol
Giannis Antetokounmpo

Leads Greece to Bronze Medal
Alperen Sengün

Alperen Sengun Drops 28 Points in EuroBasket Finals
CFB

Indiana's Lee Beebe Jr. Out for Season with Knee Injury
Dennis Schröder

Dennis Schroder Named EuroBasket MVP
Bryce Eldridge

Giants to Promote Bryce Eldridge
Jaren Jackson Jr.

Progressing in Recovery
Jonathan Kuminga

Receives New Offer From Warriors
Kenneth Walker III

Bounces Back with Big Week 2 Performance
Bijan Robinson

Rushes for 143 Yards in Week 2
Justin Fields

Currently in Concussion Protocol
Cincinnati Bengals

Bengals Calling Around to Available Free-Agent Quarterbacks
Joe Burrow

to Undergo Surgery, Out at Least Three Months
Emil Heineman

Aiming to Take the "Next Step" This Season
Braeden Cootes

Good to Go for Camp
Ivan Fedotov

Blue Jackets Acquire Ivan Fedotov From Flyers
Garrett Crochet

Punches Out 12 in Win
Cole Ragans

to Return on Wednesday
George Kirby

Strikes Out 14 in Win
Quentin Grimes

Still Not Close to a New Contract Agreement
Joel Embiid

"Looking Slender, Spry and in Positive Spirits"
Ty Gibbs

Has Arguably his Best Career Drive, but Only Finishes 10th
Chase Elliott

Despite Crashing Out at Bristol, Chase Elliott Advances to Round of 12
Austin Dillon

Misses Round of 12 After Extremely Mediocre Bristol Run
Shane Van Gisbergen

Shane van Gisbergen Fails to Advance to Round of 12
Josh Berry

Finishes Last in All Three Round of 16 Races to Fail to Advance
CFB

Ryan Williams Explodes In Return To Field
CFB

Drew Allar Plays Mediocre Game In Blowout Win
CFB

LaNorris Sellers Exits Game In Blowout Loss
CFB

DJ Lagway Tosses Five Interceptions In Loss
CFB

Garrett Nussmeier Plays Game Manager in Saturday's Win
CFB

CJ Carr Remains Poised In Narrow Loss
CFB

John Mateer Leads Oklahoma In Rout
CFB

Arch Manning Struggles Against UTEP
CFB

Jeremiah Smith Impresses In Win
CFB

Sam Leavitt Shines As Arizona State Rebounds From Week 2 Loss
Ivan Demidov

Turning Heads in Rookie Camp
NHL

Calvin de Haan Signs With Swedish Team
Samuel Girard

Skates With Non-Contact Jersey
Mackenzie Blackwood

Dealing With Injury Ahead of Training Camp
Spencer Knight

Signs Three-Year Extension With Blackhawks
Chris Buescher

May have Another Solid Run at Bristol
Corey Perry

Out 6-8 Weeks Following Surgery
Kyle Busch

Should DFS Managers Roster Kyle Busch at Bristol?
Ricky Stenhouse Jr

Is Ricky Stenhouse Jr. Too Risky to Consider Rostering at Bristol?
Michael McDowell

Could be A Solid Value Option For Bristol DFS Lineups
Chase Elliott

Probably Won't Factor in for Bristol Win
NASCAR

Bubba Wallace Not as Strong at Bristol as Other Short Tracks
Alex Bowman

Needs to Win to Make Round of 12
Ross Chastain

has Never Led at Bristol but Has Been Pretty Consistent
Austin Dillon

Richmond Speed Unlikely to Carry Over to Bristol
Josh Berry

Might Run Well at Bristol, but Almost Certainly Won't Win to Advance
Justin Haley

Bristol One of Justin Haley's Few Recent Bright Spots
CFB

Austin Simmons Listed As Game-Time Decision Against Arkansas
CFB

Nico Iamaleava Struggles In Fourth Straight Loss
Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen

Dealing With a "Tweak"
BUF

Alexandar Georgiev Joins Sabres on One-Year Deal
Corey Perry

Injured During Pre-Camp Skate
CFB

Antonio Williams Out Against Georgia Tech
CFB

CJ Bailey Flashes Again in Win Over Wake Forest
CFB

Jaxson Moi a Game-Time Decision for Tennessee on Saturday
Jean Silva

A Favorite At Noche UFC 3
Diego Lopes

Set For Noche UFC 3 Main Event
Rob Font

Looks For His Third Consecutive Win
David Martinez

Set For Noche UFC 3 Co-Main Event
Rafa Garcia

An Underdog At Noche UFC 3
Jared Gordon

Looks To Win Back-To-Back Fights
Dustin Stoltzfus

Looks To Return To The Win Column
Kelvin Gastelum

In Dire Need Of Victory
Diego Ferreira

Looks To Get Back In The Win Column
Malcolm Brogdon

Heading to Knicks on One-Year Deal
Landry Shamet

Staying with the Knicks
Adam Lowry

Aims for Early-Season Return

RANKINGS

QB
RB
WR
TE
K
DEF
RANKINGS
C
1B
2B
3B
SS
OF
SP
RP