X
Lost password?

Don't have an account?
Gain Access Now

X

Receive free daily analysis

NFL
NBA
NHL
NASCAR
CFB
MLB
MMA
PGA
ESPORTS
BETTING

Already have an account? Log In

X

Forgot Password


POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Daily Stats & Leaders
All Pitcher Matchups
Compare Any Players
Compare Any Players
Rookies & Call-Ups
24x7 News and Alerts

Statcast Pitcher Risers/Fallers - June FB/LD Exit Velocity (Week 13)

Statcast risers and fallers for week 13 at the SP position according to June FB/LD Exit Velocity. Andrew Le looks at starting pitchers who could be buys or sells according to sabermetrics.

Welcome back to RotoBaller's series using Statcast to extrapolate, dig into, and commiserate over data to examine pitching performances. The weekly series will be dynamic as we fine-tune our findings and enlighten ourselves on the information and tools at our disposal.

We touched on the topic of Exit Velocity (EV) earlier this season, using the sparse evidence out there to drive our discussion that week. What'd we learn? Most importantly, hitters dictate the bulk of EV outcomes so any talk related to pitchers needs to be digested with some thoughtful skepticism. However, there are links between EV, FIP and ERA and a modest correlation exists for a pitcher's year-over-year EV.

With baseball's halfway point rapidly approaching, we'll look at June Exit Velocity of the fly ball and line drive variety (FB/LD). We all know hard hit balls roped in the air do outsized damage than ones on the ground. By comparing FB/LD EV in June to a pitcher's season-long trend, we can determine which way starters are trending. Since a change in EV of only 1-2 MPH makes a material difference in batted-ball outcomes, that matters. Let's check out the results.

Be sure to check all of our fantasy baseball lineup tools and resources:

 

Bound to Pop

All stats for 128 pitchers with over 300 pitches in June, as of June 25. Batted-ball events do not include pop ups.

Brent Suter, Milwaukee Brewers (8-4, 4.15 ERA, 1.15 WHIP, 7.32 K/9)

After shuffling between the rotation and bullpen early in the year, Brent Suter became a starter for good on May 12. Since then, he's compiled a 3.57 ERA and 0.99 WHIP in eight starts. He's finally getting accustomed to the gig, lasting seven innings in each of his last two starts. Suter sits atop our Statcast leaderboard with a stingy 85.8 MPH FB/LD EV in June.

For a guy that averages 86.7 MPH on his fastball, you'd think Suter is a typical junkballer. Wrong. Not only is Suter utilizing his four-seamer 68% of pitches, it's increased as the year's gone on. Suter is fourth in the majors with a 69.3% F-Strike%, giving him the upper hand in the majority of plate battles. With the count in his favor and pinpoint control (1.86 BB/9), Suter's been able to progressively achieve more whiffs for not only his fastball, but also his complementary changeup and slider.

A final reality check for Suter is observing the difference in his FB/LD xwOBA and wOBA. Great news, it's been minimal at just .013 this season and an even more microscopic .002 delta in June, limiting the prospects of negative regression. Suter's peripheral figures look fine, a low-ish .270 BABIP is offset by an abnormal 28.4% LD% and acceptable 32.3% Hard%. Suter has the look and feel of reincarnated a Jamie Moyer. Let's embrace the throwback.

Eric Lauer, San Diego Padres (3-4, 5.05 ERA, 1.75 WHIP, 8.05 K/9)

Don't let the headline numbers fool you. A mere six weeks ago, Eric Lauer was staring at a horrific 8.14 ERA and 2.10 WHIP. With his major league tenure on the line, he recovered admirably. Since May 22, the 24-year-old rookie has pitched well in 6-of-7 starts with a 3.25 ERA. Lauer's also improved his FB/LD EV to 87.2 MPH in June, third-best in baseball.

Lauer's advancement lies primarily in his control. He's lowered his BB/9 from 4.60 in April and May to 3.90 this month. Excluding a seven-walk debacle on June 8, the June figure sinks to a very passable 1.99. Similar to Suter, Lauer doesn't have overpowering stuff (90.7 MPH fastball), so accuracy is of the essence. Without performing statistical analysis, we can conclude the drop in his BAA from .359 to .315 has some connection to the falling walk rate.

Lauer is still a work in progress. Despite the June strides, none of his pitches values grade favorably and the season-long numbers are difficult to trust. But he's extended his lifeline in the bigs, and the Padres will likely tolerate the learning curve for their No. 13 prospect. Lauer's fantasy ownership tag is basically zero. In fact, he doesn't even exist in the renowned Brooks Baseball database. It's risky, but gambling on Lauer in the near-term could be a lucrative arbitrage opportunity.

Other possible risers: CC Sabathia (NYY, 88.3 MPH FB/LD Exit Velocity), Lance Lynn (MIN, 88.4 MPH), Tyler Anderson (COL, 89.3 MPH)

 

Due to Drop

Gerrit Cole, Houston Astros (9-1, 2.56 ERA, 0.90 WHIP, 12.44 K/9)

For all his triumphs this season, Gerrit Cole has endured a mortal June. In five starts, he's registered a 3.77 ERA and 1.06 WHIP. Oh, the horror! Those numbers are admittedly serviceable in any context, but for a universally owned fantasy asset, we must scrutinize the work. In June, Cole holds the ninth-worst FB/LD EV of 95.8 MPH, up from 93.9 MPH for the season.

Cole's June swoon is a consequence of past success. The guy was basically unhittable through May. He's been a touch wild this month, with a 4.06 BB/9. The control issues have adversely influenced the whiff rates of his filthy fastball-slider combo. While still on track for career-best strikeout numbers, his slider whiff rates have fallen four points to 17% and the fastball has lost some zest with a modest decline to 12%. The trickle-down impact has affected his fastball effectiveness, with opponent slugging spiking from below .250 to .667.

The analysis here is relative. Don't rush to trade away Cole for Suter or Lauer. The strikeouts are here to stay, his SwStr% (13.6%) and Contact% (71.6%) are amongst the best in the business and the Astros will support his win value. All we're saying, is for a fly ball pitcher (45.8% FB%), an elevated FB/LD EV and diminishing pitch potency are warning signs. Cole would reap a handsome reward in the trade market. Owners may be wise to field offers.

Luis Castillo, Cincinnati Reds (5-8, 5.70 ERA, 1.40 WHIP, 8.71 K/9)

It might not be fair to list Luis Castillo as a faller when he's arguably settled in the basement, but the ownership rate still seems excessive. Castillo's actually inflated his 22nd-worst 94.2 FB/LD EV this season by posting a 95.7 MPH clip thus far in June. All the hopes of a May rebound (3.48 ERA, 1.25 WHIP) have been dashed this month with three subpar starts and a 6.33 ERA.

Rather than build on May where he enjoyed success by emphasizing his slider and changeup, Castillo reverted to his fastball in June, increasing its usage from 35% to 48%. With a poor normalized pitch value of -0.88 for his fastball this season, the increased predictability has lowered his whiff rates across the board. Sure he's averaging over 96 MPH on the heater, but it's not fooling anyone. Hitters are slugging .585 against the pitch and smacking line drives at 32% in June. For the record, he's lost over 1.5 MPH on the four-seamer compared to last year.

When potential doesn't evolve, its meaning transforms from promising to toxic. That moment could be now for Castillo in 2018. There's replacement-level value on the waiver wire for a 5.15 FIP and a 2.53 K/BB, no matter the strikeout prowess. Long ago a high-90s fastball was a foolproof recipe for success. But not in 2018. Until Castillo parlays the fireballs with a consistent secondary arsenal, it's time to let go.

Other possible fallers: Jaime Barria (LAA, 98.3 MPH FB/LD Exit Velocity), Jose Quintana (CHC, 95.2 MPH), Justin Verlander (HOU, 94.6 MPH)

 

More Sabermetrics & Fantasy Baseball Strategy




POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Daily Stats & Leaders
All Pitcher Matchups
Compare Any Players
Compare Any Players
Rookies & Call-Ups
24x7 News and Alerts

REAL-TIME FANTASY NEWS

Steven Kwan

Receives Injection in Wrist, Considered Day-to-Day
CJ Abrams

Back to Start Second Half
Alec Bohm

Back From Rib Injury on Friday
Trey Hendrickson

Holdout to Spill into Regular Season?
Jalen McMillan

Bucs Offensive Coordinator Not Forgetting About Jalen McMillan
Levi Onwuzurike

to Miss at Least Four Games
Nick Emmanwori

Seahawks, Nick Emmanwori Reach Agreement on Rookie Deal
Max Holloway

Set For Main Event
Brandon Lowe

Back From 10-Day Injured List
Dustin Poirier

Set For His Final UFC Fight
Roman Kopylov

Set For Co-Main Event
Paulo Costa

Returns At UFC 318
Luis L. Ortiz

to Remain on Leave for Another Month - Will he Pitch Again?
Daniel Rodriguez

Looks For Third Win In A Row
Kevin Holland

Set For His Fourth Fight This Year
Dan Ige

Looks To Win Back-To-Back Fights
MMA

Patricio Freire Set For His Second UFC Fight
Daniel Zellhuber

Set To Open Up UFC 318 Main Card
Michael Johnson

Looks For Third Consecutive Win
Elijah Arroyo

Signs Rookie Deal
Jaydon Blue

Described as "Borderline Lazy"
T.J. Sanders

Bills Sign T.J. Sanders to Rookie Deal
Christian Wilkins

Raiders Put Christian Wilkins on PUP List
Jabari Small

Lions Add Jabari Small to Backfield
Quinshon Judkins

Remains Unsigned, Won't Report With Rest of Rookies
Mason Taylor

Agrees to Rookie Contract with Jets
Hendon Hooker

Leading Lions QB2 Battle Entering Training Camp
Ozzy Trapilo

Agrees to Rookie Contract with Bears
Tate Ratledge

Agrees to Rookie Contract with Lions
Jack Bech

Signs Rookie Contract with Raiders
Yegor Chinakhov

Requests Trade
Dakota Joshua

Maple Leafs Acquire Dakota Joshua
Lukas Dostal

Signs Five-Year Extension with Ducks
Shemar Stewart

Not Practicing With College Team
Uchenna Nwosu

Seahawks Place Uchenna Nwosu on PUP List
Taylor Decker

Alim McNeill, Taylor Decker Placed on PUP List
Tyrion Davis-Price

Titans Waive Tyrion Davis-Price
Tre Harris

Chargers Relying on Tre Harris to Be Starting X Receiver
Eugenio Suárez

Eugenio Suarez Expected Back Friday
Micah Parsons

Will Become Highest-Paid Non-QB
Damian Lillard

Returning to Portland
Paul Skenes

Pirates Could Preserve Paul Skenes in Second Half
Brooks Barnhizer

Grabs 19 Points, Nine Boards in Summer League Win
Jeremiah Fears

Scores 22 Points in Summer League Loss to Thunder
Isaiah Collier

Collects 17 Points In Summer League Win
Caleb Houstan

Joins Hawks
AJ Johnson

Erupts for 25 Points in Summer League Loss
Washington Wizards

Leaky Black Logs Double-Double in Loss to Jazz
Connor Norby

Undergoes Surgery, Expected to Miss 6-8 Weeks
Trey Alexander

Tallies 25 Points in Losing Effort
Johni Broome

Records Second Consecutive Double-Double
Jahmir Young

Has Historic Summer League Outing
Rob Dillingham

Plays Big Role in Wednesday's Win
Tyrese Proctor

Erupts for 35 Points Against Kings
Cody Williams

Leads Jazz to Victory Against Wizards
LeBron James

Mavs Not Interested in "Gutting its Roster" For LeBron James
Josh Hart

Undergoes a Procedure on Right Finger
Jake Burger

Goes on 10-Day Injured List With Quad Strain
Sal Frelick

Dealing With Grade 1 Hamstring Strain, TBD for Start of Second Half
Chris Sale

Plays Catch
Los Angeles Clippers

Bradley Beal Heading to Los Angeles to Join Clippers After Contract Buyout
Rayan Rupert

Scores 24 Points in Summer League Win
Derik Queen

Collects Third Consecutive Double-Double in Summer League Loss
GG Jackson II

Records 13 Points in Summer League Action on Tuesday
Johni Broome

Logs Double-Double Against Wizards
DaRon Holmes II

Records Double-Double in Summer League Loss to Raptors
Kyle Schwarber

Named All-Star Game MVP
Harris English

Takes Stellar 2025 Performance to The Open Championship
Aldrich Potgieter

Seeks Better Result in Northern Ireland
Cameron Young

Likely to Hang Around at The Open Championship
Cameron Smith

Just Trying to Make the Cut at Royal Portrush
Jordan Spieth

Is Jordan Spieth Still a Natural for Links Style Golf?
Patrick Reed

a Viable Option at The Open Championship
PGA

Sungjae Im Wants to Rebound from Last Experience at Royal Portrush
Xander Schauffele

Looks to Defend His Claret Jug at Royal Portrush
Tony Finau

Trying to Turn Tide at Royal Portrush
Daniel Brown

Seeks a Rebound at The Open Championship
Rory McIlroy

Will be the Most Watched Player This Week at Royal Portrush
Daniel Berger

Trending Poorly as The Open Championship Looms
Clayton Kershaw

Retires Both Batters In ASG Appearance
Eugenio Suárez

Eugenio Suarez Hit In Pinky In All-Star Game, X-Rays Negative
MLB

NL All-Stars Win On Tie-Breaker Home Run Swing-Off
Robert MacIntyre

Hoping to Bounce Back at Open Championship
Shane Lowry

Hopes to Repeat at Royal Portrush
Brian Harman

Hopes to Rekindle Some Magic at the 153rd Open
UTA

Michael Carcone Returns to Utah on One-Year Contract
Bowen Byram

Signs Two-Year Deal with Sabres
Morgan Barron

Jets Re-Sign Morgan Barron for Two Years
PGA

Chris Gotterup Punches Ticket to Royal Portrush With Win at Scottish Open
Bryson DeChambeau

Hopes to Reverse Links Golf Struggle at the 153rd Open
Keegan Bradley

Needs to Find The Weekend at Royal Portrush for Ryder Cup Hopes
Oneil Cruz

Ties Home Run Derby Distance Record
Cal Raleigh

Wins 2025 Home Run Derby
Justin Thomas

Finishes Tied For 22nd at Genesis Scottish Open
Scottie Scheffler

Finishes Tied For Eighth at Genesis Scottish Open
Jon Rahm

Finishes in Second at LIV Andalucia
Tallison Teixeira

Suffers First-Round TKO
Derrick Lewis

Scores First-Round TKO
Michael Lorenzen

Royals Put Michael Lorenzen on Injured List With Oblique Strain
Stephen Thompson

Loses Controversial Split Decision
Gabriel Bonfim

Wins Controversial Split Decision
Calvin Kattar

Gets Outclassed At UFC Nashville
Steve Garcia

Extends His Win Streak
Nate Landwehr

Gets Knocked Out
Morgan Charrière

Morgan Charriere Scores Third-Round Knockout
Austen Lane

Suffers Submission Loss
Vitor Petrino

Scores First-Round Submission In Heavyweight Debut
Tuco Tokkos

Earns His First UFC Win
Chase Elliott

Charges to A Finish of Third At Sonoma
Chase Briscoe

Finishes Second With his First Career Road-Course Top-Five at Sonoma
Christopher Bell

Rollercoaster Day Ends With Top-5 Finish at Sonoma
William Byron

Maintains the Regular-Season Points Lead
Kyle Busch

Earns A Hard-Fought Top-10 Finish At Sonoma
Alex Ovechkin

Not Thinking About Retirement
PIT

Penguins Acquire Arturs Silovs
NHL

Nikolai Kovalenko Returns to Russia
Yoshinobu Yamamoto

Tosses Gem Against Giants
Shota Imanaga

Shuts Down Yankees on Sunday
Nathan Eovaldi

Dominant Again in Seventh Win
Tyler Reddick

Evades Near Upset to Remain Alive in In-Season Challenge
Ty Gibbs

One of Three Tylers to Make In-Season Challenge Semifinals
Kyle Larson

Curiously Mediocre at Sonoma Before Late-Race Crash
NASCAR

John H. Nemechek Edges Out Teammate to Make In-Season Challenge Semifinal
Alex Bowman

Ty Dillon Bumps Alex Bowman to Advance to In-Season Challenge Semifinal
Shane Van Gisbergen

Can Anyone Beat Shane van Gisbergen at Sonoma?
Tyler Reddick

Better at Sonoma Than Record Shows
Chase Elliott

a Prime DFS Option at Sonoma
Michael McDowell

Struggling a Bit at Sonoma
NASCAR

Christopher Bell Has Never Finished Better Than Ninth at Sonoma
Ryan Blaney

Has Top-10 Upside at Sonoma
NASCAR

Sunday at Sonoma Will Likely Be a Long Race for Bubba Wallace
Kyle Larson

Is A Likely Top-Five Contender for Sonoma
Ryan Preece

Points Position Could Affect Race at Sonoma
Todd Gilliland

Struggling to Find Speed at Sonoma
Ty Gibbs

May be an Underrated Favorite to Compete for the Win at Sonoma
RANKINGS
C
1B
2B
3B
SS
OF
SP
RP

RANKINGS

QB
RB
WR
TE
K
DEF