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Connelly Doan looks at six hitters who were 2018 Statcast leaders in average exit velocity to determine how their performance may translate to 2019 for fantasy baseball leagues.
After a full fantasy season of using Statcast measures to predicting risers and fallers each week, it’s time to take a step back and view the big picture. One of the most straightforward Statcast measurements we relied on was exit velocity or the speed the ball comes off the bat immediately after being hit.
It is well known that certain players consistently mash the ball (Aaron Judge, Joey Gallo, Giancarlo Stanton, J.D. Martinez) and, not surprisingly, they made their way to the top of the list for highest average exit velocity this season. For this article, we will take a look at some other interesting player groups that were right up there with the other mashers to see what their 2018 exit velocities may mean for their 2019 performance.
Note that players required at least 150 batted ball events to be considered.
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Average Exit Velocity Leaders 2018
The Elder Statesmen
#2. Nelson Cruz (DH, SEA), Avg. exit velo 93.9 MPH
It seems fitting that the hardest hitter in this section also happens to be the oldest. Of all qualified hitters, only 26-year-old Aaron Judge hit the ball harder on average than 38-year-old Nelson Cruz. The fact that Cruz hits the ball hard is not news; he has finished in the top 10 in average exit velocity since 2015. What is newsworthy is the fact that he has maintained that power as he has aged. He has historically had a power hitter’s profile, and that stayed true in 2018. Cruz continued to hit the ball hard with an uppercut swing (his 24% home run/fly ball rate was 10th best amongst qualified hitters) and it paid off in the form of 37 HR and 97 RBI. At some point, all good things must end, but based on his 2018 season, it looks like Cruz could have a few strong seasons left.
#5. Robinson Cano (2B, SEA), Avg. exit velo 93.1 MPH
We’ll now turn our attention to a teammate of Cruz’s in 36-year-old Robinson Cano. The veteran suffered trials and tribulations throughout the season, missing time with a fractured hand and a suspension for banned substances. Despite that, Cano managed to hit the ball hard in the 80 games he played. So what can we expect from Cano in 2019? Unfortunately, signs point to a decline from this season. First, Cano has now suffered several injuries throughout his career so there is always a possibility of more injuries as he ages. Second, Cano’s peak average exit velocity was 90.9 MPH from 2015 to 2017, significantly lower than his 2018 value. Finally, Cano’s hard hit rate of 41.5% was significantly higher than his career average of 33.6%. Overall, it looks like negative regression can be expected for Cano in 2019.
#12. Ryan Zimmerman (1B, WSH), Avg. exit velo 92.6 MPH
Our final elder statesman, 34-year-old Ryan Zimmerman presents an interesting comparison to our last hitter. Like Cano, Zimmerman missed significant playing time in 2018 due to an oblique injury, playing only 85 games. Unlike Cano, Zimmerman has consistently hit the ball with a relatively high average exit velocity (minimum 91.4 MPH) from 2015 onward. Further, the difference between his 2018 hard hit rate (39.6%) and career average (35.6%) was not nearly as great as Cano’s. The two veterans posted similar numbers in 2018, and while Cano has had more fantasy value over the course of his career, it looks like Zimmerman is the more likely of the two to provide consistent, comparable value in the 2019 season.
The Athletics
#6. Matt Olson (1B, OAK), Avg. exit velo 93.1 MPH
We’ll now turn our attention to some hitters who provide some serious pop in one of baseball’s biggest and most pitcher-friendly parks. Matt Olson broke onto the scene in 2017 with a ridiculous 41.4% HR/FB rate, and while he did not sustain that rate in 2018, he still hit the ball with authority. Olson ranked sixth in baseball in average exit velocity and eighth in hard hit rate (47.3%) with a solid 29 HR and 84 RBI to show for it. Olson’s swings pay off when he does make contact, but he sometimes has trouble doing that (24.7% strikeout rate in 2018). However, he has walked at a respectable rate throughout his short career (11%) and has time to improve, as he is just 24 years old. If Olson can continue to make positive steps forward in plate discipline in 2019, he could be a top source of power in fantasy.
#8. Matt Chapman (3B, OAK), Avg. exit velo 92.9 MPH
On the other side of the diamond from Olson is another Matt who hit the ball hard this season. 25-year-old Matt Chapman made impressive improvements in his sophomore season, increasing his batting average (.278 from .234), HR/FB rate (15.2% from 13.9%), and hard hit rate (43.2% from 36%). Chapman has similar plate discipline to Olson (9.6% career walk rate, 25.3% career strikeout rate) but trades some power for average. While he won’t hit for the same power as Olson or teammate Khris Davis, Chapman still has room to grow and will likely continue to provide above-average power in 2019 to complement his amazing glove work.
#13. Khris Davis (DH, OAK), Avg. exit velo 92.5 MPH
Unlike his younger teammates, Oakland’s final hitter is a veteran in the power game. Davis has been in the top 20 in average exit velocity since 2016 and is first in HR (133) during that time. He has been extremely consistent since 2016 with a mediocre batting average (.247), high strikeout rate (28%), at least 42 HR and 102 RBI, and a top-10 HR/FB rate (25.7%) and hard hit rate (42.2%). Davis’ hard hit rate and average exit velocities have also increased over each of the last three seasons, leaving no reason to doubt that he will be a top power hitter once again for fantasy owners in 2019.
