RADIO
Antonio Losada points out a few running back working behind some of the worst offensive lines in the NFL. Often overlooked, offensive lines can have a huge impact on rushing performance, so try to avoid these players on draft day.
Sometimes fantasy GMs focus too much on raw, counting stats for running backs. How many yards did they rush for? How many touchdowns did they score? Perhaps, taking it one step further, they end looking at some "manufactured" numbers such as yards per carry, yards after contact, etc... But there is something more that correlates to running back performance that is often overlooked: the strength of the offensive line they play under.
It is definitely hard to assess how much impact any OL has on running back performance on a play-by-play basis, but at the end of the year, it's easy to look at season-long data and make a strong correlation between the strength of offensive lines and the production that comes from the backfield. While quarterbacks and wide receivers are also affected by how good the OL that protects them or gives them time to work their routes is, the biggest impact any good or bad OL causes is on running backs.
Today I will hand you a few atrocious OLs (as ranked by PFF) and the rushers that will suffer from playing under them. Let's get to it!
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2020 Worst Offensive Line Situations
PFF No. 32 OL - Miami Dolphins
Miami's backfield is the closest thing to a trap entering 2020. We all know about the whole "novelty bias" concept at this point, and it doesn't just affect our thinking when it comes to rookies. It is also in place when players move from one team to another, such as is the case with the Dolphins' new two featured rushers: Matt Breida and Jordan Howard.
Both players will play their first seasons in Miami next year. They will also play under what was the worst OL of 2019... and the projected worst OL of 2020 by PFF. The Dolphins offensive line ranked dead-last in both pass and run blocking and will have four new starters this season. Talk about change.
While this OL can only go up, it is hard to see it breaking into even the top-20 in such a short time and coming from so deep. That is why even if you find either Breida and/or Howard appealing you should give it pause and think about drafting them for a minute. Both of them are currently getting drafted at higher positions than PFF has them projected to finish the season at in the running back ranks, so they are (at least for now) expected to hand negative ROIs to their owners. Don't hesitate to pass on these two.
PFF No. 31 OL - Cincinnati Bengals
Joe Mixon already endured the third-worst OL of 2019 last season and he was still able to rack up fantasy points in bunches. Mixon finished the year as the RB13 with 225.4 PPR points, though it is also true that the Bengals didn't even have an average quarterback so that could have boosted Mixon's outcome as he became the true No. 1 option on offense every week.
Entering 2020 the Bengals will feature rookie QB Joe Burrow, who will probably take a few carries himself and also put a higher emphasis on the passing game. That doesn't bode well for Mixon's projections and expectations, as he's projected to lose more than 25 rushing attempts next season compared to his 2019 numbers.
Cincinnati's offensive line, much as Miami's, can only get better compared to prior years. That doesn't mean it will excel, though. Currently, Mixon is one of the worst draft picks for 2020. While fantasy GMs are getting him with an ADP of RB7, PFF has a projection of RB16 for him in 2020 (216.6 PPR points), which would yield a horrific ROI for those getting him that early. There are much better options available in the same (and even lower) price range.
PFF No. 29 OL - Washington
Derrius Guice, Adrian Peterson, Antonio Gibson
Washington's offense is an awful mess and the biggest question mark around the league. While the team had the 13th-best OL of 2019 per PFF, they have been demoted to just the 29th-best position entering 2020. That is bad in and of itself, but you also have to factor the pieces that will be taking the field around that OL.
Second-year QB Dwayne Haskins Jr. should be a lock starting at quarterback, even if he's far from being a surefire player at the position. WR Terry McLaurin is the only profitable receiver in the team, and he's also a sophomore. Finally, there is a monster backfield composed by at least four RBs and a potential fifth if you consider rookie hybrid Antonio Gibson one.
To sum up, drafting any of Washington's rushers means that you'd be betting on someone that will need to fight teammates for touches (no Washington RB projects to more than 138 carries), stay healthy all year long (Derrius Guice has the best 2020 projection but has also missed more than ample time to injuries), and overcome a nightmarish OL. If this is not the worst backfield situation in the league, it should be close to it.
PFF No. 26 OL - Jacksonville Jaguars
I could copy everything I wrote about Cincinnati/Mixon and paste it over here and it'd still make sense. The situations of those two OL-RB pairings mirror each other. The Jaguars had the 26th-best OL in 2019 and PFF has opted to leave them in the same spot in terms of 2020 expectations. Fournette, same as Mixon, had a great year given his surroundings (he finished RB7 with 259.4 PPR points), but that might not hold for another season.
Not only does Jacksonville have a plain bad OL for the 2020 season, but they were also trying to trade Fournette away earlier this offseason. Things don't look very promising for the veteran back these days. As far as projections go, PFF has Fournette finishing 2020 as the RB11 with 239.2 points over the year.
Contrary to Mixon's case, though, fantasy GMs seem to have caught up with Jacksonville's putrid OL and are drafting Fournette as the RB17 during summer drafts to this day. While the running back is expected to drop his production, if his price keeps dropping he'd still be a good bet to draft "low", as his RB11 finish would outperform its current RB17 ADP making him a profitable and positive ROI-returner.
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