Sleeper.com Undervalued, Overvalued Fantasy Football Draft Picks - Breece Hall, Tony Pollard, Nico Collins, more

Mike's analysis of Sleeper fantasy football ADPs - players that overvalued and undervalued. His Sleeper fantasy football sleepers and busts based on 2023 ADPs.

The NFL regular season is only a few weeks away. However, the preseason is in full swing, meaning thousands of fantasy football drafts will happen over the next few weeks.

Some fantasy players like to draft early, while others prefer to wait until the last minute. Early drafters want to take advantage of the sleeper values in the ADP. Meanwhile, last-minute drafters want to avoid picking a player who gets hurt in the final preseason game or late in training camp.

Regardless of when you have your fantasy football draft, avoiding overvalued players and finding undervalued players is critical to winning your league. Let’s look at some of the more overvalued and undervalued players according to the Sleeper ADP.

Editor's Note: Identify fantasy football draft busts, overvalued ADPs, and key players to avoid so you can draft with confidence this season.

Overvalued Players for Fantasy Football

Breece Hall (NYJ): ADP 31.2 | RB12

Hall’s ADP has slipped over the past several weeks. Yet, it’s still too high. The second-year running back recently came off the Physically Unable to Perform (PUP) list because of a knee injury from last season. The former Iowa State star was outstanding as a rookie, averaging 15.1 half-point PPR fantasy points per game. Furthermore, Hall averaged 5.8 yards per rushing attempt and 4.13 yards after contact per attempt. Unfortunately, Hall’s rookie year was cut short after he suffered a torn ACL in Week 7.

The young star was the RB6 before suffering the season-ending knee injury. Furthermore, he averaged nearly six yards per rushing attempt as a rookie after his poor Week 1 performance. Unfortunately, Hall isn’t 100% healthy and while he still could play on opening weekend, his fantasy value took a significant hit after the Jets signed Dalvin Cook. Hall should get drafted as a low-end RB2, not a top-12 guy.

Deebo Samuel (SF): ADP 37.8 | WR16

There are some players you never want to draft in fantasy football and Samuel is at the top of the list for me. The former South Carolina star had his best year in 2021, averaging 18.8 half-point PPR fantasy points per game. Unfortunately, he has struggled every season outside of that. Furthermore, the veteran wide receiver has missed nearly 25% of the games in his career because of injuries.

More importantly, his fantasy production fell off a cliff after San Francisco acquired Christian McCaffrey last year. Samuel was the WR10, averaging 12.9 fantasy points per game before the 49ers traded for the superstar running back. By comparison, he was the WR59, averaging only nine fantasy points per game after the team acquired McCaffrey. The fact that the veteran has an ADP in the top 50 picks is ridiculous.

Michael Pittman Jr. (IND): ADP 68.1 | WR28

Pittman was a popular third-year breakout candidate last season. He finished the year as the WR23, averaging 10.4 half-point PPR fantasy points per game. Unfortunately, that was down from the 2021 season, where he was the WR15, averaging 11.4 fantasy points per game, both career highs. Last year Pittman saw his target volume improve, going from 7.6 targets per game in 2021 to 8.8 per game. However, the former USC star had fewer receiving yards and touchdowns. Furthermore, his yards per route run dropped from a career-high 1.95 in 2021 to 1.44 last year.

Everyone thought Matt Ryan would be an upgrade over Carson Wentz but that wasn’t the case. The Colts’ quarterback situation last year crushed Pittman’s fantasy upside. Unfortunately, the team’s situation isn’t much better this season. Anthony Richardson has significant fantasy upside, but that mostly comes from his legs. Alec Pierce is heading into his second year while Indianapolis also added Isaiah McKenzie and Josh Downs in the offseason. Pittman should get drafted as a low-end WR4 with upside, not a top-30 wide receiver that fantasy players expect to start most weeks.

Evan Engram (JAC): ADP 79.9 | TE8

The veteran tight end was a popular sleeper candidate last year with the Jaguars. Engram was the TE6, averaging 8.3 half-point PPR fantasy points per game. Many are excited about the former Ole Miss star this year following his top-six finish in 2022. However, fantasy players should look deeper into his numbers. Engram scored half his fantasy points for the entire year in a four-week window. While he was the TE1 during that four-game span, the veteran struggled in the other 13 contests.

Engram averaged only 5.4 fantasy points per game outside his impressive four-week stretch. Over a 17-game pace, he would have been the TE20 with that fantasy points per game average. Furthermore, the veteran saw his target volume explode during those four weeks, averaging 10 targets per game. By comparison, he averaged only 4.5 targets per game for the rest of the year. The Jaguars also added Calvin Ridley this offseason, who should command a high target share. There is no way Engram has a top-10 season in 2023.

Michael Thomas (NO): ADP 96.9 | WR43

Last season Thomas was the WR9 on a points-per-game basis, averaging 14.4 half-point PPR fantasy points per contest, only 0.2 fewer than A.J. Brown. Yet, the Philadelphia superstar was the WR5, while the New Orleans veteran was the WR114 after playing only three contests. Unfortunately, that’s not where the injuries stop for Thomas. The former Ohio State Buckeye has missed 80% of the games over the past three years because of injuries.

Meanwhile, Chris Olave has taken over as the No. 1 wide receiver for the Saints, which will limit Thomas’ target share when on the field. More importantly, he had an 18.8% touchdown rate last season after having only a 6.8% touchdown rate over the first four years of his career. Fantasy players should avoid drafting Thomas at his late eighth-round ADP.

Undervalued Players for Fantasy Football

Tony Pollard (DAL): ADP 23.8 | RB9

The former Memphis star was a popular breakout candidate last season despite Ezekiel Elliott being the No. 1 running back. Pollard had an ADP outside the top-24 running backs but became a league winner. He was the RB7, averaging 14.3 half-point PPR fantasy points per game. Furthermore, he had 12 scrimmage touchdowns last season after totaling 10 career touchdowns entering the year. Pollard was a home run threat.

Despite having fewer rushing attempts than Elliott, Pollard finished third in the NFL in breakaway runs (17) and fourth in breakaway run rate (8.8%). Furthermore, the 26-year-old was fourth in yards per route run (1.82) and eighth in yards created per touch (3.3) among running backs. Last year, Elliott had 231 rushing attempts and 12 touchdowns. While Pollard won’t receive all those rushing attempts, the star running back has overall RB1 upside this season.

DJ Moore (CHI): ADP 51.5 | WR22

Moore spent the first five years of his career with the Carolina Panthers, catching passes from sub-par quarterbacks. Thankfully, that won’t be the case this season after the star wide receiver was traded to the Chicago Bears. While Justin Fields had only 17 passing touchdowns last year, Cole Kmet was the only Bear with over 500 receiving yards. But that shouldn't be the case in 2023.

The veteran has been a consistent WR2 for fantasy players since his rookie year. He has totaled at least 1,150 receiving yards or seven touchdowns in four consecutive seasons. More importantly, Moore and Fields have already built a strong connection. No one should be surprised when the veteran wide receiver has a career year in his first season with the Bears.

Diontae Johnson (PIT): ADP 80.9 | WR36

Unfortunately, the veteran wide receiver had the worst season of his career in 2022. Johnson was the WR39, averaging only 8.1 half-point PPR fantasy points per contest. The former Toledo star was the WR9 in 2021, averaging 13.8 fantasy points per game, so that was quite the drop-off. More importantly, he finished second in the league with 169 targets that season. The star wide receiver also had eight receiving touchdowns in 2021, a career-high.

Johnson had a poor fantasy year last season because of bad luck finding the end zone. The veteran averaged 6.7 touchdowns per season over the first three years of his career but failed to score once last season. Yet, he finished seventh in the NFL with 147 targets. Fantasy players should expect a bounce-back season from the 27-year-old. Johnson is a massive steal as the 36th wide receiver off the board.

Sam LaPorta (DET): ADP 152.8 | TE17

Rarely do rookie tight ends make a fantasy impact, but LaPorta will be the exception to the rule. His ADP has been on the rise lately, as the former Iowa star has been working with the first-team offense in training camp. Meanwhile, Amon-Ra St. Brown was the only Lion with over 70 targets last season, meaning there is plenty of available targets for the rookie tight end. More importantly, Jameson Williams will miss the first six games this year with a suspension and is dealing with an injury.

LaPorta was productive in college despite playing with awful quarterbacks, totaling 153 receptions for 1,786 receiving yards and five touchdowns in his career. Furthermore, he was dangerous after the catch, averaging six yards after the catch per reception, first among tight ends with at least 65 targets last season, a higher average than Dalton Kincaid and Michael Mayer. More importantly, Detroit got 12 receiving touchdowns from their tight ends last year. LaPorta is a steal this late in drafts.

Nico Collins (HOU): ADP 172.8 | WR63

The Texans have an open competition for the No. 1 wide receiver role after trading away Brandin Cooks this offseason. Despite signing multiple veterans in free agency, Collins is reportedly the favorite to replace Cooks. Last year the former Michigan star was the WR48 on a points-per-game basis, averaging only 0.5 half-point PPR fantasy points per game fewer than Drake London. He was also a WR4 for fantasy players despite finishing third on his team in targets.

However, the two players that were ahead of him are no longer with the Texans. Meanwhile, current Texans wide receivers Robert Woods and Noah Brown each averaged under 5.9 fantasy points per game last year. More importantly, Houston significantly upgraded at the quarterback position, going from Davis Mills to C.J. Stroud. Despite Mills ranking 43rd in catchable pass rate last season, Collins was second in contested catch rate among wide receivers. The 24-year-old is an under-the-radar third-year breakout candidate.

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