McMillan or Hunter? Dynasty Rookie Drafts

Should you draft Tetairoa McMillan or Travis Hunter in 2025 dynasty fantasy football rookie drafts? John breaks down the profiles and landing spots for Henderson and Judkins.

The first 10 picks of the first round of the 2025 NFL Draft saw the consensus two best wide receivers in this year's rookie class -- Travis Hunter and Tetairoa McMillan -- selected at picks No. 2 and No. 8, respectively. While Hunter's higher draft capital was likely boosted by his abilities at the cornerback position, he was thought of as a better WR prospect by many teams as well.

Had Hunter fully focused his abilities at receiver and not played on the defensive side of the ball, there wouldn't be much of a debate to have here. Hunter would be the player to draft, and McMillan wouldn't even have been in the same conversation as him. However, Hunter's unique two-way ability makes him a difficult player to evaluate for fantasy football.

That is, for some people, at least. There's already been plenty of clarity on the situation. I'm at the point where I'm more confident projecting Hunter's Year 1 output than I am for that of McMillan. That might sound wild, but hopefully, in this article, I can convince you that it's true. So, let's dive in!

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Should You Draft Tetairoa McMillan for Fantasy Football in 2025?

While much of the industry is in agreement that he's an elite prospect, plenty of others are skeptical of his talent. I include myself in that group. There is just too much bad tape out there that shows a lack of effort, an inability to separate, a lack of nuance in his routes, and a lot of production aided by a scheme that got him as many easy receptions as possible and tried to open up space for him.

Tetairoa McMillan doesn't pace his routes very well. Is this supposed to be trickery? He has one speed when he runs his routes. Either this DB is a star (he's not) or this route just isn't good. Being 6'4" doesn't make this better. pic.twitter.com/T0CEGBPaoG

— JohnJohn Analysis (@JohnJohnalytics) March 19, 2025

A disturbing amount of his production shows tape where he wasn't challenged much at the line of scrimmage. He played in the Big 12, where defensive backs aren't great. But even then, against some cornerbacks who don't even merit high draft picks, he struggled mightily.

When challenging DBs in one-on-one situations, his size advantage is helpful. But he's not a great separator. He often stumbles on his routes, and there are a lot of highly concerning plays that he inexcusably gives up on. He doesn't have the athleticism to win on vertical routes in the NFL, full stop.

Can't get over some of Tetairoa McMillan's blunders and low-effort plays. Here he trips himself up on the most basic of releases. Sloppy footwork to trip over the ground before even starting his route pic.twitter.com/Z7GBjKT4m2

— JohnJohn Analysis (@JohnJohnalytics) March 19, 2025

His agents desperately tried to trick NFL scouts into thinking he ran a 4.48-second 40-yard dash. We know this is not to be true. He skipped athletic testing at the combine because he knew it would hurt his draft stock. He ran a hand-timed 4.55-second 40, and given that hand-timed results are consistently faster than laser-timed results by a margin of at least 0.05 seconds, we're forced to conclude that he's a 4.60 guy.

The tape, to me, indicates that he runs in the 4.6-4.65 range. To me, he's a Marvin Harrison-lite type player -- someone who isn't able to win on vertical routes, has poorer contested-catch ability than he's touted to have by the media, and doesn't have the physicality to bully strong defensive backs. He's not as good a separator as Harrison was, though.

Tetairoa McMillan screen pass against unblocked defenders vs NAU and Tre Harris screen pass against unblocked defenders vs LSU. Both hung out to dry against 2 defenders. One of many clips that show me Harris is just a better WR. pic.twitter.com/eOOoXAR3R7

— JohnJohn Analysis (@JohnJohnalytics) March 19, 2025

One of the problems with McMillan is his inability to work well in tight spaces. He needs some room to build up speed. If he's stuffed at the catch point, he becomes completely worthless on screen passes. And in one-on-one situations with defensive backs in the open field, he usually doesn't do too well.

We haven't even gotten to the offensive situation he's entering. The vast majority of the community seems to have bought into the feel-good story that Carolina Panthers quarterback Bryce Young is awesome because he almost beat the Philadelphia Eagles last year! Young's late-season stretch was against mostly terrible defenses.

Ahh dang here's a bad miss by Bryce Young.

Gives Xavier Legette no chance on this 3rd and 4 end zone target. pic.twitter.com/CBvCOb4gMx

— Jacob Gibbs (@jagibbs_23) December 2, 2024

The Kansas City Chiefs, with an injury to cornerback Jaylen Watson, were included in this group. They were awful against the pass while Watson was out with his ailment. Those who watch the tape rather than putting a boatload of stock into "almost-wins" and also don't ignore his stat sheet (very few passing touchdowns) likely know the real story.

Unless Young significantly boosts his statistical output, cleans up his accuracy problems and mistakes, and transforms his game, McMillan probably will have a disappointing season. He also has to compete with a first-round pick from the 2024 NFL Draft at wide receiver, Xavier Legette, and WR Jalen Coker, who was impressive for a stretch last year. That doesn't even include WR Adam Thielen in the slot.

Tetairoa McMillan was drafted by the Carolina Panthers, and that's a downer. The Panthers have had one of the league's worst passing games for years. What are the chances he'll be able to put up viable numbers? pic.twitter.com/RKPgcZoIRe

— Fantasy Index (@FantasyIndex) April 28, 2025

Despite Young's "resurgence" (it wasn't a resurgence; he still stinks), Tet is in a poor situation. I don't recommend drafting him in any format at his ADP. It's still inflated by that 300-yard, four-touchdown game against New Mexico in Week 1 of the University of Arizona's 2024 football season. He followed it up with a two-catch, 11-yard game against Northern Arizona.

Should You Draft Travis Hunter for Fantasy Football in 2025?

The short answer is yes. The longer answer is, why the heck are people letting him fall to the seventh round in redraft leagues? That's pure insanity. Once upon a time, when I was touting Hunter as an elite wide receiver prospect and swearing up and down that he would play mostly at wide receiver even in Year 1, you could get him for a lot cheaper in fantasy drafts.

As it turns out, basically the first thing new Jacksonville Jaguars head coach Liam Coen said was that Hunter would mostly play at WR. After he was drafted, it would be a bit clearer what position he would play. But those with eyes could see this coming from a mile away. His route running is spectacular, and he's an absolute cheat code at the catch point.

Q: What is your vision for Travis Hunter? Do you see him playing more on offense?

Liam Coen: "We’ll have a plan right now of [him playing] primarily on offense, with him learning the defensive system and practicing on the defensive side of the ball as well throughout this… pic.twitter.com/juYRrsGXLc

— Scott Barrett (@ScottBarrettDFB) April 25, 2025

I have to stop for a moment and reflect on the meaning of insanity every time I see someone say that Hunter will transition to playing mostly defense by the end of the year, or that he'll be taken away from the offensive rotations to play at corner in case of injury.

I can't help but think that it's wild to think that Coen, a former offensive coordinator, would want the WR he traded up for to be TAKEN OUT OF HIS OFFENSIVE LINEUP.

That's wild. For starters, WRs have far more ability to completely change a team than defensive backs do. A great WR can elevate an offense. Two great receivers can completely transform it into a top-10 offense in the league. Coen wants to have a great offense because, well, he's an offensive-minded coach.

1. Catch-Point Dominance

📌 Out of any 1st round WR ever recorded (2014-2025), Travis Hunter has the HIGHEST career contested-catch success rate (65.5%)❗️

⚠️ 2nd closest? Drake London, 8.7% LOWER…

With only 4 career drops, there’s no such thing as a ‘50/50’ ball with Travis… pic.twitter.com/U6ElDJQYdZ

— SCOUTD (@scoutdnfl) December 28, 2024

I have a major, major problem with how a lot of receivers are salivated over as "contested-catch specialists" despite not making many catches that were actually difficult through potential pass interference or heavy contact. Think Rome Odunze or Ja'Lynn Polk. They were idolized for these abilities, and disappointed in Year 1.

However, Hunter does not fit into this category. He's dominant when the ball reaches his hands and wins in a variety of sustainable ways. He contorts his body and hands to make absurd grabs, even with a defender actively swatting at his arms or the ball. He has a fluidity to his game that is unrivaled in this class.

You should draft Hunter. He's an elite WR prospect and easily the WR1 of this year's class. And people are letting him fall to the SEVENTH ROUND IN REDRAFT LEAGUES?!?!?!?! You cannot be serious, but that's what I've seen in mock drafts. That's an utter steal. I firmly believe Hunter will win leagues in 2025. Do not let him slip past you. I'd be willing to draft him in the fourth round in redraft leagues, and with the 1.01 in all dynasty rookie drafts.

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