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John Johnson breaks down rookie fantasy football outlooks for Dylan Sampson and Devin Neal. Should you draft Sampson or Neal in 2025 dynasty rookie drafts?
It's not always easy to distinguish clearly between running backs drafted in the middle-to-late rounds of the NFL Draft. But trying to sniff out who is in the better situation, who has a chance of getting early volume, and who will likely have the better career isn't an easy task.
And in dynasty fantasy football, every pick matters in rookie drafts. Getting insight into players with Average Draft Positions in the later rounds of those rookie drafts can help you secure someone who will contribute to your team in a meaningful way. It's never fun to have players rot on your bench who never score like you hope they can.
Two players you might consider drafting are Cleveland Browns running back Dylan Sampson and New Orleans Saints running back Devin Neal. Neither are their teams' current projected RB1s, but all might not be as it seems. Let's dive in!
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Should You Draft Dylan Sampson In Dynasty Fantasy Football Rookie Drafts?
I think it's a pretty good idea. Sampson's draft capital was lower than many expected in the later parts of his 2024 college campaign for two major reasons. The first was that a hamstring injury ended his season early, and the second was that his athletic testing was slightly disappointing.
But Sampson was the SEC Offensive Player of the Year, and is a better pass-protector than he's given credit for. Considering his size, he was pretty excellent at forcing missed tackles and breaking tackle attempts, and has the long speed to take plays for massive gains. He has a lot more upside than people think.
Contact balance and mind-feet connection allows Dylan Sampson to work his way right through this tackle.
He was such an efficient runner for a 20-year-old first-year starter. pic.twitter.com/3Ux2qyhpyy
— Jacob Gibbs (@jagibbs_23) April 14, 2025
I'm in the minority opinion here, but I think that a fully healthy Sampson is simply a better player than his backfield mate, Quinshon Judkins. Part of that is that I'm a lot lower on Judkins than the consensus, but I have my reasons -- quite a few reasons.
The problem with Quinshon Judkins isn't his poor missed tackles forced rate.
It's that he's average or (MUCH) worse in nearly every efficiency metric when compared to his projected draft capital.
Of 52 R1-R3 RBs since 2018:
25th in MTF%
47th in YCO/A
37th in Explosive%
24th in… pic.twitter.com/JCXX1AYvTZ— Dynasty Zoltan (@DynastyZoltanFF) April 12, 2025
There's not much Judkins does that's impressive other than being big and fast. He's not elusive at all in the open field without some speed built up. He's an awkward mover laterally, and I lost count of the times he left extra yards on the field, choosing to truck players he should be trying to dodge.
Quinshon Judkins has a rare ability to... really not make anyone miss in the open field with lateral moves once he's built up speed. Ohio State had a lot of big run plays when the run blocking was good. But Judkins is unbelievably stiff in the open field. pic.twitter.com/xeM7Y7C5rU
— JohnJohn Analysis (@JohnJohnalytics) April 29, 2025
Judkins benefited from being on a team that had great run-blocking and stomping on teams that had much weaker rosters. Against stiffer competition, his stats were a lot less impressive. His base statistics, like rush yards and yards per carry, took a nosedive, as did his advanced efficiency metrics.
Quinshon Judkins splits vs. Non-P4 and P4 opponents in 2024:
+ Non-P4: 3.83 YACo/Att, 0.47 MTF/Att
+ P4: 2.86 YACo/Att, 0.17 MTF/Att
Judkins numbers vs. P4 only would be bottom 3 of 31 2025 RB prospects.
Shoutout the awesome post from @jagibbs_23 that prompted this⬇️ https://t.co/3FiQM8hW6C
— Dataroma (@ffdataroma) April 16, 2025
So, it's hard not to conclude that he'll be disappointing against real NFL competition. The evidence is there on tape. It's very important to separate yourself from the base overall production and highlight reels, and try to find things that will make it tough for players to succeed at the next level.
Going over Quinshon Judkins tape, I lost track of how many times I saw zero hip flexibility. Rarely tries to juke the defender even with clear space to get extra yards. Just tries to run guys over every time. Doesn't work that well in the NFL. Should be a problem. pic.twitter.com/VJmiH2GVIA
— JohnJohn Analysis (@JohnJohnalytics) March 17, 2025
I see far more egregious red flags with Judkins than I do with Sampson. All this to say, I wouldn't be surprised if this backfield is more of a committee than most people expect. The same goes if Sampson eventually just wins the starting RB job outright. That might take a little longer, however.
Still, it's dynasty fantasy football we're talking about, and we're in it for the long haul. Sampson didn't have such terrible advanced efficiency metrics and also didn't perform so poorly against bigger schools. And no, a one-game cherry-picked sample size doesn't tell the whole story. So, Judkins' game against Notre Dame is just a small part of a larger picture.
Dylan Sampson absolutely destroyed every big school he played against in 2024 before his hamstring injury in his final game. Quinshon Judkins, despite playing in a committee, having more rest, and having a better offensive line, was prone to putting up stinkers pic.twitter.com/A3x7YL7SqT
— JohnJohn Analysis (@JohnJohnalytics) May 24, 2025
I don't see any way that this job is safely in Judkins' hands, or that he'll demand the vast majority of the touches for long. He's just not elusive. Instead, I think Sampson is a fantastic value at his current RB10 ADP in rookie drafts, and in the third round, is an excellent pick to make.
To the Cleveland fans that may not like the Dylan Sampson pick or just don’t know anything about him.
Please watch, yall got an elite player. pic.twitter.com/dDDwocc7PY
— SullenSerf (@SullenSerf) April 26, 2025
Sampson has some major jets, too. A lot of Sampson's biggest strengths are Judkins' biggest weaknesses, which is crucial.
Should You Draft Devin Neal In Dynasty Fantasy Football Rookie Drafts?
No. There's very little upside to be had here. Like Judkins, Neal performed a lot worse against quality competition in college. Blame it on whoever you want, but I prefer players who perform well when the going gets tough, and Neal just isn't one of those guys.
I'm doing some digging into RB splits vs. Power-4 and non-P4 defense.
I only included splits for RBs who had 100+ rush attempts vs. both. Here's what I found:
Crushed Power-4 competition:
🔸Cam Skattebo
🔸Damien Martinez
🔸RJ Harvey
🔸Corey Kiner (reminder that he was an LSU… pic.twitter.com/InkSTzDzie— Jacob Gibbs (@jagibbs_23) April 16, 2025
Neal doesn't have plus athletic traits, isn't particularly elusive, isn't a great pass-catcher, and overall is just mediocre in nearly every sense of the word. I don't imagine he'll ever have the starting job in New Orleans unless the team somehow runs out of other options.
My analysis has led me to conclude that he's not even a better player than the current Saints RB2, Kendre Miller. If Miller could stay healthy, he'd likely sit comfortably ahead of Neal on the depth chart for years. Even after the eventual departure of Saints RB1 Alvin Kamara, I don't think the Saints would be comfortable with Neal as their RB1.
2025 Rookie RBs Team Run Blocking Rank according to PFF (best run block to worst out of 134 total teams).
1. Kaleb Johnson (4th)
2. Devin Neal (7th)
3. Montrell Johnson (8th)
4. Kyle Monangai (10th)
5. Omarion Hampton (29th)
6. RJ Harvey (31st)
T7. DJ Giddens (T40th)
T8/9.…— Garret Price (@DynastyPrice) February 19, 2025
Neal benefited from excellent run-blocking, which is why he had the season he had in college. It's worth noting how far down the list you have to go to find Sampson, and how high up Judkins is. I do wonder how this list has looked in previous seasons, and if we can find gems and weed out busts by framing their performances in the context of the run-blocking they had at the collegiate level.
Neal isn't a great athlete, so it seems unlikely he'll be housing plays in the NFL at the rate that he did in college. He's simply a handcuff, and maybe even a handcuff to a handcuff if Miller gets enough playing time. I have zero interest in that. I'd much rather just draft Kansas City Chiefs RB Brashard Smith.
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