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Chris Olave or DeVonta Smith? Who should I draft for 2023 fantasy football? Andrew Ball analyzes two NFL players with similar values, and tells you who to pick in your upcoming draft.
Welcome RotoBallers to our ADP duel comparing Chris Olave vs. DeVonta Smith for 2023 fantasy football drafts. Fantasy football has become a cultural phenomenon, captivating sports enthusiasts and casual fans with its unique blend of strategy and competition. As the popularity continues to soar, the tools and metrics used to gain a competitive edge have evolved.
One metric that holds immense value for fantasy football players is Average Draft Position (ADP). ADP serves as a critical guide in draft preparation, helping managers navigate the player selection process and build a winning roster.
In this article, we will delve into the intricacies of ADP between two similarly valued players and identify how you can effectively attack the best player to construct a championship-caliber fantasy team.
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Breakdown Of Fantasy Football ADP
Average Draft Position, commonly referred to as ADP, represents the average position at which a player is drafted in fantasy football leagues. ADP is typically derived from data collected from various mock and real drafts conducted by fantasy football enthusiasts. This powerful metric serves as a benchmark, indicating the perceived value and popularity of players within the fantasy football community.
Understanding ADP is essential for fantasy managers, as it provides crucial insights into player rankings and draft trends and helps determine the optimal time to select specific players. By incorporating ADP into their draft strategy, managers can effectively gauge player availability, identify potential steals, and avoid reaching for players too early in the draft.
ADP acts as a compass, guiding fantasy managers through the unpredictable terrain of the draft. It offers an overview of player rankings, allowing managers to gauge which players are typically selected in the early rounds and which may fall to later rounds.
This knowledge can help managers identify "value picks," where players with a higher ADP can be secured at a lower draft position. Additionally, analyzing ADP trends over time can provide valuable insights into player fluctuations and market sentiment, helping managers stay ahead of the competition. By incorporating ADP data into their draft strategy, managers can make well-informed decisions, ensuring they assemble a well-balanced team capable of maximizing points and securing victory.
Draft strategy is a fundamental aspect of fantasy football success, and ADP plays a pivotal role in its development. Armed with the knowledge of ADP, managers can adopt different strategies based on the unique characteristics of their league. For example, "Zero RB" and "Late-Round QB" strategies capitalize on ADP data to determine when to prioritize running backs and quarterbacks, respectively.
Conversely, understanding ADP can help managers identify the optimal time to select high-value wide receivers or tight ends. By blending their draft strategy with ADP insights, managers can create a well-rounded roster that maximizes value and minimizes risk, setting themselves up for success throughout the fantasy football season.
Average Draft Position (ADP) serves as a vital tool in the arsenal of fantasy football managers. By comprehending the definition, importance, and strategic utilization of ADP, managers can make informed decisions during the draft, ultimately constructing a championship-caliber team. With ADP as their guide, fantasy managers can navigate the intricacies of the draft process, identify value picks, and adapt their strategy to gain a competitive edge. Let's break down the ADPs of WRs Chris Olave and DeVonta Smith and see who the better pick for your fantasy football team may be.
Chris Olave, New Orleans Saints
WR12 - ADP: 27th Overall
Sophomores Chris Olave and Garrett Wilson have been pegged by fantasy football pundits and enthusiasts as the next crop of star wide receivers. Both former Buckeyes put together 1,000-yard rookie seasons but have not yet climbed into the elite tier of wideouts. Wilson is going higher in fantasy drafts (WR9 with an ADP of 15th overall), largely due to the perceived quarterback upgrade of Aaron Rodgers over Zach Wilson.
One could argue that Derek Carr is also an upgrade over Andy Dalton in New Orleans. That picture isn't as clear. Dalton actually ranked fifth in the NFL in on-target percentage (78%) last season. Carr, on the other hand, was 27th at 71.8%. Carr had the fourth-worst "bad throw" percentage, while Dalton landed in the top five of qualified quarterbacks.
Some of Carr's issues had to do with a new offense under coach Josh McDaniels. His offense calls for more of a vertical attack, urging Carr to push the ball down the field. He finished 5th in the league in deep ball attempts and averaged 9.1 air yards per attempt, but did not find much success. His deep pass completion percentage was just over 33%, ranking 28th in the league.
On the optimistic side, Dalton was actually dead last in deep ball completion percentage. So, while it's not a strong suit of Carr's game, he proved to be more efficient than Dalton in that aspect.
The deep ball is a massive part of Olave's game. In his rookie season, he finished eighth in average depth of target (14.5) and 10th in total air yards that passes traveled before being caught (832). In just his second NFL game, Olave posted 334 air yards, the third-highest total since 2009. Granted, he only finished the game with 80 yards, but the opportunities were there.
DeVonta Smith, Philadelphia Eagles
WR13 - ADP: 28th Overall
When you think of the Eagles' passing game, the first name that comes to mind is probably A.J. Brown. He did, after all, post a career year in 2022. In his debut season with Philadelphia, he hit career highs in targets (145), receptions (88), yards (1,496), and touchdowns (11). He even earned an MVP vote along the way. All that was good for 299.6 PPR fantasy points and the WR6 finish. He's the WR7 coming off the board in drafts this season.
Just three spots behind Brown sat Devonta Smith, the "other" receiver in Philly. Smith ended the season with more catches than Brown (95) but fewer targets (136), yards (1,196), and touchdowns (seven). A WR9 finish is nothing to scoff at, especially with a goose egg in Week 1. Over the team's last 11 games, including the postseason, Smith paced Brown in yards (912 to 917) and catches (64 to 57). Brown ended with one more score.
Philadelphia started games strong, scoring on 63% of their opening drives, and did it while passing. Jalen Hurts, and Co. threw on 63% of their plays on opening drives. With a lead and the easiest strength of schedule in the league, the Eagles relied on the run in the second half of games. They finished sixth in the league in run rate in 2022 and tallied the most rushing touchdowns in NFL single-season history, postseason included.
The road to an NFC East crown for the Eagles won't be as easy in 2023. Philadelphia's opponents have the highest combined 2022 win percentage. Playing even, or from behind, would force Philadelphia to continue their opening drive, air raid attack, with Smith, Brown, and even Dallas Goedert reaping the benefits.
Fantasy Football Verdict
The ADP between these two young wide receivers could not be closer. Both should be available at the back end of the second round. Olave shows bigger play potential, but Smith is returning to a high-scoring offense with the same cast and crew. While he is second fiddle on his own team, more opportunities should be available for Smith this season.
You should feel comfortable drafting either as your WR1 if you go with a RB or Travis Kelce in the first round. If you're drafting on, or near, the turn in a 12-person league, you could end up with the opportunity to take both and should walk away from your draft feeling ecstatic.
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