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Darren Waller or Dallas Goedert, who should I draft for 2023 fantasy football? Andrew Ball analyzes two NFL players with similar values, and tells you who to pick in your upcoming draft.
Welcome RotoBallers to our ADP duel comparing Darren Waller vs. Dallas Goedert for 2023 fantasy football drafts. Fantasy football has become a cultural phenomenon, captivating sports enthusiasts and casual fans with its unique blend of strategy and competition. As the popularity continues to soar, the tools and metrics used to gain a competitive edge have evolved.
One metric that holds immense value for fantasy football players is Average Draft Position (ADP). ADP serves as a critical guide in draft preparation, helping managers navigate the player selection process and build a winning roster.
In this article, we will delve into the intricacies of ADP between two similarly valued players and identify how you can effectively attack the best player to construct a championship-caliber fantasy team. Let's get into it.
Be sure to check all of our fantasy football rankings for 2025:- 2025 fantasy football rankings
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- NFL rookie fantasy football rankings
- Best ball fantasy football rankings
- Superflex fantasy football rankings
- Dynasty fantasy football rankings
Breakdown Of Fantasy Football ADP
Average Draft Position, commonly referred to as ADP, represents the average position at which a player is drafted in fantasy football leagues. ADP is typically derived from data collected from various mock and real drafts conducted by fantasy football enthusiasts. This powerful metric serves as a benchmark, indicating the perceived value and popularity of players within the fantasy football community.
Understanding ADP is essential for fantasy managers as it provides crucial insights into player rankings and draft trends, and helps determine the optimal time to select specific players. By incorporating ADP into their draft strategy, managers can effectively gauge player availability, identify potential steals, and avoid reaching for players too early in the draft. ADP acts as a compass, guiding fantasy managers through the unpredictable terrain of the draft. It offers an overview of player rankings, allowing managers to gauge which players are typically selected in the early rounds and which may fall to later rounds.
This knowledge can help managers identify "value picks," where players with a higher ADP can be secured at a lower draft position. Additionally, analyzing ADP trends over time can provide valuable insights into player fluctuations and market sentiment, helping managers stay ahead of the competition. By incorporating ADP data into their draft strategy, managers can make well-informed decisions, ensuring they assemble a well-balanced team capable of maximizing points and securing victory.
Incorporating ADP Into Your Draft Strategy
Draft strategy is a fundamental aspect of fantasy football success, and ADP plays a pivotal role in its development. Armed with the knowledge of ADP, managers can adopt different strategies based on the unique characteristics of their league. For example, "Zero RB" and "Late-Round QB" strategies capitalize on ADP data to determine when to prioritize running backs and quarterbacks, respectively.
Conversely, understanding ADP can help managers identify the optimal time to select high-value wide receivers or tight ends. By blending their draft strategy with ADP insights, managers can create a well-rounded roster that maximizes value and minimizes risk, setting themselves up for success throughout the fantasy football season.
Average Draft Position (ADP) serves as a vital tool in the arsenal of fantasy football managers. By comprehending the definition, importance, and strategic utilization of ADP, managers can make informed decisions during the draft, ultimately constructing a championship-caliber team. With ADP as their guide, fantasy managers can navigate the intricacies of the draft process, identify value picks, and adapt their strategy to gain a competitive edge. Let's break down the ADPs of TEs Darren Waller and Dallas Goedert and see who the better pick for your fantasy football team may be.
ADP Breakdown
Darren Waller, New York Giants
TE5 - ADP: 54th Overall
When you take a look at the Giants' wide receivers, there's not a ton to get excited about for fantasy football. Sterling Shepard finished two straight campaigns on injured reserve. Darius Slayton's career year was his rookie season in 2019. Parris Campbell is coming off the first healthy season of his career. Isaiah Hodgins flashed in 2022 and rookie Jalin Hyatt shows a lot of potential, but neither has proven it consistently on an NFL field.
That's where the true top receiving option, tight end Darren Waller, comes into the picture. Without an alpha wide receiver on the roster, it's not unreasonable to think that the new acquisition leads the team in targets. That's been the case at training camp, where quarterback Daniel Jones has looked for number 12 whenever he's given the chance.
Fantasy managers have been victimized by Waller in the last two seasons. Since posting back-to-back 1,100-yard seasons in 2019 and 2020, the veteran has only played in 20 out of 34 possible games. He'll turn 31 just a couple of days after the season begins, which isn't old by tight end standards, but is concerning given his injury history.
Brian Daboll and the Giants' coaching staff will scheme the offense to get the ball in Waller's hands. They had efficient play out of a tight end group led by rookie Daniel Bellinger and converted wide receiver Lawrence Cager in 2022. Daboll was the offensive coordinator in Buffalo in 2021 when Dawson Knox became a fantasy-relevant option and also served as the Patriots' tight ends coach when Rob Gronkowski was there.
Dallas Goedert, Philadelphia Eagles
TE7 - ADP: 58th Overall
Goedert may be third in the Eagles' receiving pecking order but nearly the entire aerial attack runs through himself, A.J. Brown, and DeVonta Smith. Goedert finished with 69 targets on the season in 2022, third on the team behind the pair of star receivers. That's even more impressive when you remember that he missed five games with an injury. He was also a model of consistency, recording 10 games with at least nine fantasy points. That was the second-most among all tight ends.
If you project his stats out to a full 17-game season, Goedert would have finished with 78 catches for 995 yards. Those are elite numbers at the tight end position. That is one of the problems with Goedert, though. He has only played one full season in his five-year career, and that was his 2018 rookie season when he wasn't seeing as much time on the field.
Earlier this offseason, I made the case for DeVonta Smith to be drafted over Chris Olave. In that article, I talked about how the Eagles had the easiest strength of schedule in the entire league in 2022, which let them rely on the run game to kill the clock. Philadelphia did want to move the ball through the air, however, throwing on 63% of their plays on opening drives.
This season, Philadelphia's opponents have the highest combined 2022 win percentage. Playing even or from behind would force Philadelphia to throw the ball more. In that case, their trio of pass-catching weapons would reap the benefits.
Fantasy Football Verdict
The two beasts of the NFC East have very similar profiles. The Eagles rank first in strength of schedule (.566 opponent win percentage), while the Giants are tied for fourth (.549). The two teams finished back-to-back in run/pass ratio last season. Waller averaged 13.9 yards per catch in 2022 and Goedert finished at 12.8.
Roster construction can heavily sway your decision on draft day. When your draft is 50 picks deep, take a peek at how your team is built. If you're rostering players like Chris Olave and/or Deebo Samuel, who offer more boom/bust potential weekly, grabbing the more consistent option in Goedert is the better choice for your team.
If you have selected consistent PPR options like Amon-Ra St. Brown and Tee Higgins, take the shot on Waller, who could give you 30 points or get shut down due to double coverage. Waller is your best option in best ball formats and Goedert is your guy in dynasty leagues.
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