Second Half Breakouts for Fantasy Baseball - Kevin Larson's "My Guys"

Kevin's second-half fantasy baseball breakouts for 2025. These are all MLB hitters and pitchers he's trying to get on his rosters via waiver wire or trade including Colt Keith, Jeff Hoffman, more.

Congratulations on making it through the All-Star break! If you're still looking for fantasy analysis, that means your team's likely in a pretty good spot and aiming to make a run in the playoffs. They'll be coming up quicker than you realize, so trying to get a step ahead of your opponents is key. Hopefully, you've capitalized on some big breakouts this season (say hello to James Wood for me) and now you're looking for more.

One thing I've always aimed for is players who are expecting positive regression. Much of my analysis this season has been focused on identifying positive and negative regression for players who are hot. Today, I'll be bringing you all players that should be expecting positive regression in the second half of the season that you can potentially buy low on. You've likely already got your superstars locked down, so the best way to stabilize that roster is to find hidden gems.

The goal here is to find players who will be getting hot at the right time. It may not be superstar production we're expecting out of them, but hopefully it's a big enough bump to give you an advantage in your matchups that catapults you in the second half of the season. Now let's get to it.

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Ryan McMahon, 3B, Colorado Rockies

McMahon can be a frustrating player. As a Rockies fan, I can admit he's a bit streaky, but when he gets on a hot streak, there's so much to love. Based on his stats so far this season, I'm expecting him to get hot here in the second half.

On the outside, his season looks very underwhelming so far, hitting for just an 80 wRC+, about 10 points lower than where he'd been the past two seasons. Some of that's fueled by his strikeout rate creeping above 30%, but some of that's also fueled by a .289 BABIP. That's a bit lower than we expect from McMahon, who usually sits a little bit above .300 with his BABIP.

Part of the reason he's traditionally above .300 is a bit of a Coors Field bump, yes, but part of that is he usually hits the ball pretty hard. His hard-hit rate this season stands at 48.1%, just below his 49.7% mark from last season. He's currently in the 79th percentile of hard-hit rate, meaning he's still making pretty good contact when he gets the bat on the ball.

The Rockies are trying to break a record tonight for the largest gathering of people with one name.

That name is Ryan.

Naturally, Ryan McMahon launches one 467 to celebrate! pic.twitter.com/JA8SuWZHhh

— Just Baseball (@JustBB_Media) June 21, 2025

So, check off BABIP as a sign of positive regression coming. Next, we look at the expected statistics. His wOBA sits at .303, a fitting number for someone playing in Denver. But just like the guys of 3OH!3 would probably insinuate, don't trust it's an accurate representation of how true his results have been (or something like that). That's because his xwOBA sits at .330 on the season, confirming that positive regression is indeed coming for the 30-year-old.

Another thing I like to check is if batted-ball profiles have changed much from season to season. With McMahon, he's made good changes in his profile, reducing his ground-ball rate (49.0% to 40.9%) and increasing his fly-ball rate (31.5% to 39.9%). He's also kept his HR/FB rate at 16.0%, a number he's been consistently at or above since the 2021 season.

Now, July has not been his month, and neither was April. But in the middle of those two, he posted a 136 wRC+ in May and a 102 wRC+ in June. What we're looking for with this positive regression is for him to simply reach league average. That bump from 80 to 100 will feel a lot bigger than it seems and will help catapult you into the playoffs.

That one isn't coming back.

Ryan McMahon CRUSHES a 441-foot homer. pic.twitter.com/fA9uz6No8Q

— MLB (@MLB) June 13, 2025

Another factor to consider is that McMahon has been frequently mentioned in trade rumors. Colorado has generally been stingy at the trade deadline in seasons past, but they're becoming much more open to selling than they traditionally have. With McMahon as an obvious trade chip, it's becoming more likely he could be traded to a contender.

That may scare some fantasy managers because McMahon has not been valuable on the road this season. But many Rockies players have noted just how much more advanced analytically other teams in the league have become after they left Colorado. Those aspects could really help McMahon excel, especially without the difficulty of adjusting approaches whenever leaving or returning to altitude.

If the Rockies don't trade him, then we're expecting positive regression anyway! The second half of the season should be beneficial for McMahon one way or another. There's a good chance he's on your waiver wire right now (rostered in 25% of Yahoo! standard leagues) and is worth the flyer. Pick him up and hope that positive regression really hits in August and September.

Colt Keith, INF, Detroit Tigers

Tigers players seem to be doing everything right this season. Colt Keith is no exception. He's hitting for a 120 wRC+ in 85 games. Yet he's only rostered in 32% of Yahoo! standard leagues. It's a bit surprising given how valuable he's been at the plate. With our theme of positive regression coming, it should be even crazier that he's still sitting out there. But let's see just why he can help stabilize your roster.

Colt Keith since May 31:

.319/.379/.516, 150 wRC+, 15.5 K%, 8.7 BB%

Reminder he's still just 23 years old and played just 239 minor league games. Really think it's all starting to come together for the talented hitter. pic.twitter.com/TMDXtfhcUH

— Aram Leighton (@AramLeighton8) July 8, 2025

As I mentioned, he's hitting for an impressive 120 wRC+. Part of what's driving that is an increased walk rate, jumping from 6.5% last season to 11.2% this season. Walks always haunt pitchers, and with Detroit's lineup usually hitting pretty effectively, it means more chances for Keith to score.

Additionally, the Tigers moved him to the leadoff spot in mid-June. He'd generally been all over the lineup, but he's consistently been at leadoff. That helps a hitter's mentality sometimes while getting him more PAs. All good things!

Let's now move on to the expected statistics. Keith is hitting for a .341 wOBA, but that's paired with a .370 xwOBA. That's the second-highest xwOBA on the Tigers that have put at least 50 balls in play. For reference, Riley Greene is currently hitting for a .374 wOBA, and that translates to a 143 wRC+.

Would you sign up for a 20-point boost in wRC+ for Keith? You'd be crazy not to. His Baseball Savant page shows plenty of red, too, which is something we love to see in players who are still expecting positive regression.

There's not a ton to worry about in his batted-ball profile either. His ground-ball rate is down to 39.3% while his fly-ball rate is up to 36.8%. He has a hard-hit rate that sits in the 65th percentile, which isn't overwhelming but suggests his hits aren't happening due to luck.

On top of that, three of the four pitches he sees the most (four-seam fastballs, sliders, sinkers) all have an xwOBA of .400 or greater. That's a fantastic floor for the 23-year-old to have. Everything is pointing upwards for him.

The only concern I have here is that Keith is in a bit of a platoon role and doesn't make many starts against left-handed pitchers. That makes sense given that his .414 OPS against lefties is less than inspiring. But he's going to face righties much, much more often than he sees lefties and should be able to take advantage of them early on.

If he's sitting on your waiver wire right now, go and grab him. He's hitting for a 1.047 OPS in July, and we already see an obvious case for him to have more positive regression coming his way. That heat wave is hitting now, and fantasy managers needing help should add the Tigers' new leadoff man ASAP.

Nick Gonzales, 2B, Pittsburgh Pirates

Perhaps it's because he started the season injured and has gone somewhat overlooked, or maybe it's because he plays for the Pirates. I don't blame fantasy owners for either mentality, but Gonzales had a pretty solid June that should have him on your radar. Just like McMahon and Keith, there's a good chance he's on your waiver wire (rostered in just four percent of Yahoo! leagues) and is expecting positive regression that can help you stabilize your roster.

NICK GONZALES ISN'T DONE YET

3-RUN NO-DOUBTER

100.7 MPH exit velocity, 395 feet, HR in 30/30 ballparks pic.twitter.com/nSE4xcbfeg

— Platinum Ke’Bryan (@PlatinumKey13) June 25, 2025

After a long stint on the IL thanks to an ankle injury, Gonzales posted up a .794 OPS in June. That translates to a 119 wRC+, a number more than worthy of a roster spot. July hasn't been his month so far, as he's drastically underperformed, but that should change soon enough, as the expected stats indicate he should be getting back on track.

His current wOBA sits at .323, and his xwOBA sits at .344, which ranks in the 64th percentile. Not an overwhelmingly great number, but something we love to see for someone who's only owned in four percent of leagues. That .344 xwOBA would translate to the real results of the Mets' Jeff McNeil, who's hitting for a 126 wRC+.

A bump from Gonzales' current 105 wRC+ up to anything 120 or better would feel like a huge gain.

One interesting aspect to note about Gonzales is that he's hitting in the cleanup spot for Pittsburgh right now. He's not a big power guy, so the fit may seem weird, but it does lead to plenty more chances to rack up RBI and eventually runs as well with Oneil Cruz hitting behind him. This assumes that the guys in front of Gonzales in the order (Bryan Reynolds, Andrew McCutchen) and Cruz all have positive regression coming.

The good news is that all three are also set for positive regression. More runs and RBI help boost his fantasy value even further.

Nick Gonzales picks up right where he left off

LEADOFF TRIP-TRIP-TRIPLE

101.5 MPH exit velocity, .430 xBA pic.twitter.com/9zlkk67Awf

— Platinum Ke’Bryan (@PlatinumKey13) June 7, 2025

Gonzales likely won't be delivering with his power, but his bat-to-ball skills (.289 xBA, 89th percentile) should become very valuable once Pittsburgh's lineup gets going. There's a bit of risk associated with Gonzales since he's not a big power hitter, sure, but think of this as more of a no-sweat shot on him.

At four percent owned, with positive regression coming, he can be a small piece that helps you stabilize that lineup and provide more consistency week in and week out. It may not happen in July, as he needs to correct the course, but when positive regression occurs, you'll be thankful.

Expect that wRC+ to jump up to 115 or 120 by season's end. If that jump happens while the rest of the Pirates have their positive regression hit too, then you'll be a very happy fantasy manager.

Michael Conforto, OF, Los Angeles Dodgers

Look, it hasn't been pretty. I get it. The overall picture looks gross as Conforto is slashing .184/.298/.322 this season. However, we must trust that the expected statistics will guide us in the right direction. The gap between Conforto's .283 wOBA and .341 xwOBA is way too large to ignore.

Michael Conforto is hitting .296 in his last 27 at-bats with four extra-base hits and eight runs batted in. His only three multi-RBI games have occurred during this span. pic.twitter.com/o607LLMDHU

— Dodgers Tailgate (@DodgersTailgate) July 4, 2025

According to Baseball Savant, it's the seventh-largest gap between wOBA and xwOBA that's predicting positive regression. So, as ugly as the season has been so far, it should turn around in a big way for the 32-year-old. His .341 xwOBA ranks in the 62nd percentile, but because his season has been so ugly, he's only rostered in five percent of Yahoo! standard leagues.

Examining Conforto's performance in recent seasons reveals that being unlucky is a significant characteristic for the left-handed hitter. But he's never been this unlucky. He saw a 15-point gap in both 2023 (.315 wOBA, .330 xwOBA) and 2024 (.327 wOBA, .350 xwOBA), but in both those seasons, he was essentially a league-average hitter. He hit for a 99 wRC+ in 2023 and a 112 wRC+ in 2024.

This year it's down to 80, the lowest mark he's ever posted in his career.

And it's a bit confounding because he's not necessarily hitting the ball all that differently. His batted-ball profile is nearly identical to last season's, though he's dropped off some in his HR/FB rate. His har-hit rate sits at 43.2%, the second highest mark he's posted since the 2018 season behind only last season's 46.0% mark.

It becomes obvious, once you look at his BABIP, that he's just been unlucky. He's posted a .220 BABIP this season, easily the lowest mark of his career. He's never quite been a guy who's posted a high BABIP, only crossing the .300 mark twice in his career, but this drop is much too low.

It'd make more sense if his batted ball profile showed us a huge increase in groundballs, or a sharp drop in his hard-hit rate, but those factors just aren't there. We're looking at someone who's been snake-bitten by bad luck.

Based on the last few seasons, I'd expect his BABIP to increase much closer to the .275 mark by season's end. That 50-point increase would bump his batting average closer to the .230 mark he's been hitting pretty consistently the last few seasons. That's going to feel like a major boon based on what he's done so far.

Michael Conforto has gone deep in back-to-back games! pic.twitter.com/Y1BYHM5XD0

— Talkin’ Baseball (@TalkinBaseball_) June 26, 2025

With the expected positive regression for his wOBA, I'd expect that mark to approach a .320 number or so, rather than fully reach the .341 number that xwOBA predicts. Much of this is because he has underachieved over the past two seasons, leading me to believe that maybe the gap is more a result of who he is now.

But that increase to a .320 wOBA would give him a mark similar to teammate Teoscar Hernandez, who's hitting for a 107 wRC+. Add another 27 points to Conforto's wRC+, and that's going to feel like a significant win.

So view Conforto similarly to Gonzales. With such a low roster percentage, consider him a risk-free add. Let him heat up, and once he's really rolling, then get him in your lineup. July just may be the month it all happens, as he's already up to a 105 wRC+ in the month with a .250/.289/.444 slash line.

When he does that in the middle of the Dodgers' lineup, which also should get back rolling shortly, that's just more chances for runs and RBI. Grab him off your waiver wire and see what happens.

Jesus Luzardo, SP, Philadelphia Phillies

As we move on to pitchers, this is a little bit less about roster percentage and more about the positive regression we should see. Luzardo falls squarely in the positive regression category, as he's been rather unlucky in Philadelphia.

Pa su CASAAA.Jesús Luzardo 🔪
Ponchando a Juan Soto.
🇻🇪🇻🇪🇻🇪🇻🇪🇻🇪🇻🇪🇻🇪🇻🇪🇻🇪🇻🇪🇻🇪🇻🇪#alsondelalvbp #philllies #MLB
📹:@mlb pic.twitter.com/adU2S2xzjN

— Al Son de la LVBP (@AlSonDeLaLVBP) June 23, 2025

When evaluating pitchers and their luck I am almost always looking at the stats side-by-side: ERA, FIP and xFIP. Think of it as a pitcher's slash line, but the closer together the numbers are, the more real they are. For Luzardo, he's got a 4.14 ERA, 2.68 FIP, and 3.23 xFIP. There is a lot of variability, but all of them point to the fact that Luzardo has gotten unlucky.

Much of what's driving the expected positive regression is his high strikeout rate. He's posting a 27.3% strikeout rate, equating to a 10.52 K/9. That high rate is driving down his FIP and xFIP. He's also limiting home runs and has just a 0.60 HR/9 mark. He's done this by decreasing his fly-ball rate (40.2% to 35.2%) and increasing his ground-ball rate (37.0% to 43.0%).

More strikeouts, fewer homers, and a similar amount of walks is a good change for Luzardo in his first year as a Phillie.

According to Baseball Savant, he's giving up a .316 wOBA to go along with a .302 xwOBA. That suggests a hint of positive regression for Luzardo, but I actually think the swing we'll see may be even more pronounced. When considering his BABIP, that's sitting at a crazy .370 number. You'd expect that to mean that his hard hit rate is relatively high, but he's sitting in the 56th percentile in hard hit rate, so he's pretty much league average.

We should be seeing a more traditional .300 BABIP from Luzardo, and that's a huge positive swing for the southpaw.

The 27-year-old may start to see even better results if he focuses on using his sweeper more often. This was a new weapon he added to his repertoire this season that's gotten him great results. He has a .248 wOBA on the pitch to go along with a .210 xwOBA. He already throws it at a high rate (26.2%), but if he uses it a little more, he may help himself.

His four-seamer has gotten him in trouble (.380 wOBA, .378 xwOBA), and I'd guess one of the significant changes he makes in the second half is to throw it less.

Jesús Luzardo, Wipeout 86mph Sweeper. 🌊✝️🦎 pic.twitter.com/jjE6Zou7Xe

— Rob Friedman (@PitchingNinja) July 9, 2025

All signs are pointing upwards for Luzardo, even if it hasn't looked pretty since April. With Luzardo on 84% of Yahoo! rosters, you aren't going to be finding him on the waiver wire any time soon, but you might be able to pry him away from another fantasy manager that may not trust the lefty.

Or, if someone's trying to snatch him away from your roster, do what you can to keep him or raise the price. Positive regression is on the way, and you'll want to be there for it.

Jeff Hoffman, RP, Toronto Blue Jays

Another highly rostered pitcher, Hoffman, appears to be another prime candidate for positive regression. He got hot in June, but it hasn't done enough to bring down his traditional stats. He's coming out of the All-Star break with a 5.03 ERA, 4.28 FIP, and a 2.85 xFIP. That xFIP number tells me that he's got quite a bit of positive regression coming to him.

If you're wondering why the difference between FIP and xFIP is so large, especially since they're built to measure only the three true outcomes, it's because xFIP treats homers differently. It assumes that every pitcher's HR/FB rate should be about league average and calculates what FIP would be based on that.

With Hoffman, he's given up a 22.0% HR/FB rate, the worst mark he's put up since 2019. The league average is currently around 11.5%, so xFIP suggests that Hoffman could be that much better if his HR/FB rate were more normal.

Given his past, that number should be dropping. Each of his last three seasons has seen a number of 9.4% or lower, so 2025 feels like a bit of an outlier.

Jeff Hoffman dicing the Orioles and blowing them a kiss because they didn’t sign him? That’s art.pic.twitter.com/ACeLpcH3NK

— Blue Jays Today (@TodayJays) April 13, 2025

Heading into the second half of the season, Hoffman should be expected to decrease his four-seam fastball usage. If there's a pitch that's really getting him in trouble, it's the four-seamer. Hitters are tagging it for a .384 wOBA to go along with a .431 xwOBA. Those are some pretty gross numbers for Toronto's closer, but he's luckily got two other pitches that are yielding him good results.

The first would be his slider, which boasts a .272 wOBA, complemented by a .317 xwOBA. Negative regression, yes, but that's a decent ceiling to have. He will likely start using his split-finger more, as it has the best xwOBA of the bunch, with a .232 mark. Hitters are hitting it for a .301 wOBA, but I would expect that to swing Hoffman's way shortly.

He also features a sinker, but the usage on that pitch is very low, and he'll continue to stick to his three primary weapons.

Hoffman also gets fantasy value in two other areas. The first being strikeout rate. Regardless of the runs he's given up, he has a 32.7% strikeout rate. That's in the 94th percentile. The second is that he's really the only closer for Toronto. With 22 saves on the season, no one else on the Blue Jays has more than three.

It's clearly his role, and it doesn't appear that Toronto is buying into his ERA, which may have prompted other teams to make moves. With Toronto winning a lot more often these days, that's more opportunities for Hoffman.

Try to see if another fantasy manager is willing to give up on Hoffman. Perhaps they consider his 5.03 ERA and think it's worth letting him go. In that case, you'll reap all the benefits. Do what you can if you need help in the closer role, because Hoffman should be putting on a show in the second half.

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