RADIO
Nick's picks, bets, and analysis for December 16 in NCAA College Basketball. Nick identifies some high-profile matchups and various spots to bet on during Saturday's college basketball slate.
This weekend's games are littered with pseudo-neutral site matchups, offering us a clearer picture of where each team and conference stands heading into conference play.
Here are two spots I'm targeting from a betting perspective, along with some of my favorite games to watch this Saturday.
I hope you enjoy my picks and make sure you check out all the other college basketball content that we have here at RotoBaller!
Kentucky vs. North Carolina @ State Farm Arena, GA (5:30 PM ET)
One of Saturday's marquee matchups takes place on CBS at a neutral site in Atlanta, Georgia, with two top-15 ranked teams facing off. North Carolina has faced a tougher schedule and enters this game after a loss to fifth-ranked Connecticut. Meanwhile, Kentucky beat Penn but lost to CAA favorite UNC Wilmington last Saturday.
Both squads prefer up-tempo games and protect the ball well on offense. The Wildcats are better at forcing turnovers, while the Tar Heels have a slight rebounding advantage. Coach Calipari's young core excels at finishing at the rim and shooting threes, an efficient offensive style that I believe gives them the edge in this matchup.
Reed Sheppard, Antonio Reeves, and Rob Dillingham have been scorching hot from deep, shooting 59%, 43%, and 51%, respectively. Though these numbers are likely to regress throughout the season, the Tar Heels give up a significant amount of rim and three-point attempts against teams who can match their athleticism.
While RJ Davis and Armando Bacot are no slouches, averaging 21 and 16 points per game, respectively, Cal has multiple athletic guards to run at Davis and recently welcomed back stud freshman, Aaron Bradshaw. His 7'1" frame can disrupt Bacot and allow Kentucky to focus on guarding perimeter players instead of double-teaming down low. Bradshaw saw 29 minutes in his second game back and seems ready for a bigger role in this matchup.
I'm looking to back Kentucky as a slight underdog, but might also target Bacot's rebounding prop.
Norfolk State at Hofstra @ Mack Sports Complex, NY (2:00 PM ET)
While I would have preferred Norfolk State to beat Stony Brook on Wednesday, they fell short and this number likely isn't as small as it could've been. Hofstra is coming off back-to-back losses against Saint Louis and Duke. Now, they return home to face a Norfolk State squad ranked 359th in defensive three-point rate. Hofstra also boasts a 24th-ranked three-point rate and 38th-ranked percentage, making them one of the best shooting teams in the country.
According to KenPom, both teams are due for regression in opposite directions. Norfolk State ranks 94th in the Luck rankings, while Hofstra ranks 225th. As long as The Pride can take care of the ball, we should see an offensive onslaught in a good home environment.
Other Games To Watch:
Arizona vs. Purdue in Indianapolis, IN (4:30 PM ET)
AP #1 Arizona travels to Indiana for a clash with the #3 ranked Boilermakers. Arizona is one of the few teams with the size to match Zach Edey down low. Senior Oumar Ballo and freshman Motiejus Krivas should be enough to slow Edey without doubling, allowing guards to stay on Purdue's shooters. While I favor Arizona in this matchup, the close-to-home neutral game for Purdue and lack of line value make me sit on the sidelines as a fan.
Texas A&M vs. Houston in Houston, TX (2:30 PM ET)
Houston boasts the #1 ranked defensive team by many metrics for good reason. They force turnovers, make opponents shoot mid-range jumpers, and suffocate ball handlers. A&M stars Henry Coleman III and Wade Taylor IV are talented enough to overcome this defensive prowess, but they'll need other wings to step up in this contest. This is a high-level matchup, and I might back the Cougars, but it should be a fun game regardless.
Dayton vs. Cincinnati in Cincinnati, OH (7:00 PM ET)
This is one of the most intriguing matchups of the day. The 8-1 Bearcats have played a very easy schedule, excluding their road loss to Xavier. Dayton, on the other hand, has faced multiple top-25 teams and is on a hot streak against lesser competition. Cincinnati has a nice rebounding edge, while Dayton should be able to create and convert clean looks. This looks like a one-possession game, so I'll back the Flyers if the spread is larger than one possession.
My Saturday bets so far:
- Kansas -5.5 (-110 DraftKings) risk 1u to win .91u
- Kentucky +1 (-110 DraftKings) risk 1u to win .91u
- Houston -6.5 (-120 FanDuel) risk 1u to win .83u
- Michigan State +4.5 (-110 DraftKings) risk .5u to win .45u
- Florida Atlantic -7.5 (-110 DraftKings) risk .5u to win .45u
- Hofstra -9 (-110 DraftKings) risk 1u to win .91u
YTD 27-19 +4.04 units
Follow me on Twitter/X @DrRoddy for this weekend's updated picks and hit me up with questions or teams you’d like to see me write about. GL if you tail. Let’s go!
