Don't have an account?
Join the Best Live Fantasy Chat Community!

Lost password? [X]

Receive free daily analysis:

NFL    NBA    MLB

Already have an account? Log in here.

[X]

Forgot Password


[X]

Sammy Watkins to the Chiefs – Fantasy Spin


Tyreek Hill and Travis Kelce have a new running mate in their receiving ring, and this guy has the talent to be the best of the bunch…or an Achilles heel that could make him the biggest fantasy flop of the threesome.

The Kansas City Chiefs upgraded their pass-catching corps by signing speedster Sammy Watkins to a three-year, $48 million deal with a $21 million signing bonus. Watkins parlayed a mostly-healthy 2017 season (he missed one game due to a concussion) into a monster contract, even though he only caught 39 passes for just 593 yards while being arguably the fourth-best option in the St. Louis Rams passing attack. This is how the NFL has been this offseason when it comes to gifting outrageous contracts to receivers coming off mediocre years, although Watkins is more deserving of multimillions than many others who have inked deals in recent weeks.

Watkins’ first two NFL seasons were fantastic fantasy-wise as he hauled in 125 passes for 2,029 yards and 15 touchdowns. He has had more foot problems during his career than Stephen Curry, though. He has missed a dozen games and parts of others over the past three seasons due to his injuries. Watkins has had more problems keeping his body together than President Trump has had keeping his cabinet together. So will Kansas City be the home of a new Watkins Glen International Speedway of sorts? Here are the positives and negatives of Watkins coming to K.C.   

Editor's Note: Get any full-season NFL Premium Pass for 50% off. Our exclusive In-Season Lineup Tools, Lineup Optimizer and over 150 days of Premium DFS Research. Sign Up Now!

 

Points in the Positive Column for Watkins

The Alex Smith Era is over in K.C., which is wonderful news for Watkins since Smith never did his wideouts any fantasy favors due to his lack of downfield passing prowess. New starting signal caller Patrick Mahomes has a cannon for an arm and should have no trouble tossing 50-yard javelin strikes to Watkins. Put one point in the positive column for Watkins.

Watkins will not be double-covered as often as he has in the past because the aforementioned Hill and Kelce will likely command double-coverage first from defenses. Watkins can burn one-on-one coverage quicker than I can burn a bagel in the microwave, so this will be Watkins more dangerous than ever when it comes to breaking big plays. Put another point in the positive column for him.

Watkins has the same home run ability that Hill possesses on the outside. He can fly downfield and keep defenses backpedaling when he runs fly routes or post patterns. This terrific tandem could be the Aaron Judge and Giancarlo Stanton of the NFL when it comes to hitting home runs downfield, and you know head coach and offensive guru Andy Reid will put Watkins in positions where he can hit grand slams. Three points for Watkins.

 

Points in the Negative Column for Watkins 

The Chiefs should have an interesting offense lined up for 2018 with Kareem Hunt and the returning Spencer Ware at running back and the Watkins-Hill-Kelce trifecta forming one of the top trios among receiving factions. Watkins was able to haul in eight touchdown passes in St. Louis’ top-ranked scoring offense last season, but probably had his fantasy value stunted because there were so many playmakers to spread the ball around to. He could be in a very similar situation in 2018. Kansas City had the sixth highest-scoring offense in the NFL last year, and both Kelce and Hill had over 100 targets. Finally! A point in the negative column!

Changing uniforms will not make Watkins any more durable. Fantasy owners will still wince every time he is tackled for fear of another foot injury or concussion. Unless there is something special in the Kansas City barbecue that strengths his bones, muscles and ligaments, Watkins’ fantasy value is always iffy due to his checkered injury history. This is another strike against him.

 

The Final Verdict

Watkins is a high-risk, high-reward fantasy player. When he is healthy he has proven he can be a difference maker who can rack up 1,000 receiving yards and 10 touchdowns. When he is healthy but not the No. 1 option in his team’s passing attack, he has shown he is probably good for 700 yards and eight touchdowns. And when Watkins is banged-up, he is good for nothing but ruining the championship chances of the fantasy owners who have him on their rosters.

Watkins is a player fantasy owners should view and value as a No. 3 WR on their fantasy squad. You have to make sure the other receivers on your roster are dependable because you cannot be 100 percent sure what you will get out of him and how long he will last before he is knocked out of action.

We also do not know how good and how consistent Mahomes will be in his first season as a starting quarterback. If Mahomes comes out of the gate throwing like Andrew Luck, Watkins’ fantasy stock will rise. If Mahomes looks like an Akili Smith clone, Watkins’ fantasy stock will plummet.

There is no reason to overspend to grab Watkins in auction leagues or take him in the higher rounds in drafts. Get him with the idea that he is good for 800 yards and eight scores but that he has a high ceiling and a low cellar. Do not bank on him being your No. 1 or No. 2 receiver and then you will be pleasantly surprised if he has a 1,000-yard year…and not as disappointed when he spends six weeks on the sidelines.

 

More 2018 NFL Free Agency Analysis




More Recent Articles

 

Offensive Line Rankings Analysis: Week 12

Apologies for not making it out last week. I welcomed my daughter into the world, and while I would have loved the distraction of looking at the ability of offensive lines, that wasn't going to happen. Moving onto Week 12, the outcome of your season-long leagues is now taking shape and you know if you... Read More


Fantasy Football Disaster Recovery: Kenny Golladay

Welcome to Disaster Recovery, where each week I'll examine why your studs played like duds. This isn't a place to find out why you should have sat a player for somebody else on your bench. Disaster Recovery is here to examine the guys who you didn't think twice about starting and to help you decide if you should... Read More


Receiver Leaderboards Entering the Final Stretch - NFL Next Gen Stats

We've consumed our first "double-digit week" set of games. That means we've entered the final part of the season and, in fact, the fantasy football playoffs are closer than you may realize. There are just three more weeks to go until we hit Week 14 and celebrate our presence in the run for the chip,... Read More


NFL Survivor Pool Picks (Week 12) - Targets and Avoids

Sunday was one of the worst Sunday's Vegas has had all season and remaining entrants in survivor pools nearly had the same fate. However, the Vikings rallied from a 20-0 halftime deficit, the 49ers scored late, and the Cowboys win was much narrower than it should have been. The Saints, Bills, and Ravens took care... Read More


Fantasy Football Risers and Fallers - Jeff Driskel, Deebo Samuel, Kenyan Drake

Whether due to their own play, the play of others, or injuries, players' stock increases and decreases on a weekly basis. Perhaps more than any other, the NFL is a league that experiences ups and downs at a rapid pace. With only 16 games, there’s little room for error and seemingly endless opportunities for improvement.... Read More


Deeper League Free Agent Pickups for Week 12

Rotoballers, if you're not active on the waiver wire this time of year, there are only two reasonable explanations: 1) You're sitting at 3-8 (or worse) and don't find it enjoyable to play spoiler to your league mates, or 2) You're 8-3 (or better) and have nothing but matchup-proof studs on your starting lineup and... Read More


FAAB Bidding - Week 12 Waiver Wire Targets

Assisting our famous waiver wire pickups list, and our weekly waiver wire columns by position, this column focuses on suggested waiver wire bidding percentages for fantasy football owners in leagues using a Free Agent Acquisition Budget (FAAB). As a caveat, these prices do not by any means indicate how much these free agent players will... Read More


Week 12 Waiver Wire Pickups & Adds

This could be the most exciting installment of waiver wire adds in a while. Not that any of these choices are necessarily league-winners but at least we have a bunch of new names to ponder. Bye weeks are nearly over but this one will be particularly tough with the high-scoring Chiefs, Vikings, Chargers, and Cardinals... Read More


Week 12 Defense (DEF) Streamers and Starts - 2019 Fantasy Tiers, Rankings

Almost out of time to make that last push for the playoffs--no time like the present to squeak out a win because you picked the right defense. Below are RotoBaller's Week 12 defense tiers and rankings, or which defenses to stream, start and target off the waiver wire for Week 12 of the NFL and... Read More


Week 12 Kicker Streamers and Starts - 2019 Fantasy Tiers, Rankings

It's Week 12, and the fantasy football playoffs are just around the corner. Teams are jostling for playoff position both in the real world and the fantasy world. You gotta have the right kicker at the right time in the right matchup, and it matters now more than ever. The margin for error in these... Read More


Running Back Waiver Wire Pickups - Week 12

The regular season continues to advance at a relentless pace as we have now entered the planning process for Week 12. Some of you are concentrating on building lineups that will commandeer a spot in the fantasy playoffs, while others are making slight adjustments to teams that have already secured their place in the postseason.... Read More


Wide Receiver Waiver Wire Pickups - Week 12

Week 11 is behind us and we're getting closer and closer to the end of the fantasy regular season. For some of us, Week 12 represents the final chance to get into the postseason, while for others we have another week or two left. Here, to help you get ready for the playoffs, is a... Read More


Week 12 Tight End Waiver Wire Picks and Streamers

With fantasy football leagues only a couple weeks away from their playoffs, this is not the time for teams to be short a tight end. Not only do fantasy footballers have no Travis Kelce or Hunter Henry during this crucial week in their fantasy seasons, they do not get to take advantage of using a... Read More


Quarterback Waiver Wire Pickups and Streamers - Week 12

We saw some monster weeks at the quarterbacks position, with four quarterbacks topping 37 points, and ten scoring over 25 points. These weren't all big names putting up these points either, as low-owned quarterbacks like Baker Mayfield, Sam Darnold, and even Jeff Driskel had some big numbers in Week 11. That means we've got plenty... Read More


Waiver Wire Express - Week 12 Lightning Round

We're onto Week 12, which means the last of the bye weeks approaches. The Cardinals, Chargers, Chiefs and Vikings hit the hammocks as we can finally start to look at players without worrying about future offweeks. To help you look towards those precious playoff weeks, here is the waiver wire lightning round heading into Week... Read More