RADIO
Antonio Losada takes a look at the 2020 NFL running back group and highlights potential busts based on elusiveness rating so you can avoid these RBs in fantasy football drafts.
A lot of elements go into making a running back desirable for fantasy football. Opportunity, a good offensive line, and a good offense are all key elements. However, something equally important is how elusive those running backs are, this includes breaking tackles and gaining yards after contact.
Often players who have these traits fall into the category of the best rushers in the league. Unfortunately, sometimes elusive running backs do not have a great opportunity, a good offensive line, or a good offense, leading to them being pushed down draft boards. If those running backs can get the opportunity then their ability to be elusive can be enough to make them fantasy relevant despite their offense or offensive line.
Today, I'm looking at running backs' elusive rating from the 2019 season using PFF's Elusive Rating formula [Forced Missed Tackles) / (Carries + Receptions) * (Yards After Contact per Attempt * 100], trying to highlight four potential busts from 2020 fantasy football drafts given their 2019 numbers.
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2020 Elusive Rating Busts
Le'Veon Bell, New York Jets
After missing the 2018 season entirely by holding out, Bell came back last year as part of the Jets... and put on a dud of a performance. In 15 games and carrying the ball 245 times, Bell could only reach 789 yards on the ground and score three touchdowns. He also went for 461 air yards on 66 receptions, but even those didn't help him on the Elusive Rating (ER) ranks as he finished with the 18th-worst mark in the NFL among RBs with 75+ rushing attempts.
Bell's average of 3.22 YPC ranked second-worst only above Peyton Barber's 3.05 in 2019, yet New York kept handing him the rock as if there was no tomorrow, or a better option. While Bell finished with almost twice as many rushing yards after contact (502) than before contact (287), he broke only 16 tackles all year long (virtually one per game) and needed all of 15.3 rushing attempts between broken tackles (that mark was the 23rd-worst among the same aforementioned group of 50 RBs).
Even with all of those numbers going his way, Bell is currently getting drafted as the RB19 and has an ADP of 55.5, which seems like an absolute overpay for someone stuck in the same offense that is probably not getting better in 2020.
David Johnson, Houston Texans
After being excellent in seasons prior, Johnson hit a wall hard in 2019 and is no longer a Cardinal. He was traded to Houston earlier this offseason and he's expected to man the Texans backfield in 2020. Not very exciting, if you ask me. Johnson carried the ball just 94 times in 13 games last season, going for 345 rushing yards and a couple of scores. He outproduced his performance on the ground catching 36 passes for 370 yards.
All in all, Johnson averaged 3.67 YPC good (bad) for the seventh-worst mark among RBs with 75+ rushing attempts. He logged virtually the same amount of yards before (175) and after contact (170) and his six broken tackles were horrific. He had to rush the ball 15.7 times on average between each of his six broken tackles, which doesn't make him an efficient rusher at all.
Johnson finished the year with the 13th-worst ER of all rushers, not a good sign for a supposed No. 1 rusher entering 2020. No matter what, fantasy GMs are still (over)valuing him and drafting the former great as the RB21 with an ADP of 62.7 these days. Absolute fade at that price, and even if he keeps dropping spots down the board.
James Conner, Pittsburgh Steelers
Conner had a rough year in 2019. Not only did he had to endure a season without leading-QB Ben Roethlisberger giving him some leverage, but he also had to go through injuries that limited him to 10 games over the year. In those, Conner logged 116 rushing attempts for 464 yards on the ground and four scores, to which he added 251 receiving yards on 34 receptions.
While the 4.0 YPC were not that bad, ranking only as the 15th-worst among RBs with 75+ rushing attempts, Conner was an absolute dud when it came to breaking tackles: he could only break five all year long and needed a monster 23.2 rushing attempts between each of them! That was the fifth-worst mark in the NFL.
If Big Ben comes back, plays all 16 games, and Conner can go on to enjoy a healthy season, his raw stats should bounce back. That being said, though, Conner was far from an efficient rusher last year and that shouldn't change in 2020. Even with that, Conner is getting drafted as the RB20 with an ADP of 55.6, which seems like an overpayment for someone with so many questions attached to his name.
Melvin Gordon III, Denver Broncos
After trying to scare the Chargers with a holdout that ultimately lasted all of four games, Gordon didn't scare anyone. All that came of the holdout was Gordon missed a quarter of the 2019 season. The rusher is now out of LA and trying to re-launch his career in a Broncos backfield that also features Phillip Lindsay and Royce Freeman. Talk about escaping Austin Ekeler...just to find himself stuck in another clogged backfield.
In his 12 games and 162 rushing attempts, Gordon finished with 612 yards on the ground and somehow got to score eight touchdowns, to which he added 296 receiving yards on 42 receptions. Gordon averaged just 3.78 YPC and had more rushing yards before contact (312) than after contact (300), breaking only eight tackles all season long. He averaged 20.3 rushing attempts (the ninth-most league-wide) between broken tackles, something very ridiculously low. In terms of ER, Gordon finished 2019 as the eight-worst player in the statistic per PFF, which doesn't look any good for his upside going forward.
For some reason, he's the current RB16 with an ADP of 48.9 yet he's gone from a shared backfield to another one, will be part of a super-young, not-so-proven offense, and his chances at bouncing back and putting on efficient numbers are minimal at best. Clear fade for me leading up to next season, much more at his current price.
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