Robbie Grossman: 2022 Fantasy Baseball Bust?

Robbie Grossman is a fantasy baseball bust and overvalued draft target for the 2022 MLB season. Kipp explains why Grossman should be faded at his current ADP.

The Detroit Tigers finished the 2021 season with a record of 77-85, which was strong enough for a third-place finish in the American League Central division. This record and standing within the division surprised a lot of folks around baseball and is something the Tigers hope they can build on heading into 2022.

The reason the Tigers were able to put together such a competitive effort in 2021 was thanks in large part to solid contributions from their young talent in the likes of Akil Baddoo and Casey Mize along with having excellent seasons from Eric Haase and Jonathan Schoop. Another player that performed well above expectations for the Tigers in 2021 was outfielder Robbie Grossman. Grossman supplanted himself in the leadoff role for the Tigers early in the season and was a key cog in their success throughout the season.

Heading into 2022, there remain questions as to whether or not Grossman can reprise a season similar to 2021 in which he had what could be deemed a career year. A deeper look into his 2021 season and advanced metrics over his career should shed some light on what we can expect heading into 2022.

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A Gross Selection At Current ADP?

Robbie Grossman had a tremendous 2021 campaign in which he slashed .239/.357/.415 with 23 home runs and 20 stolen bases. He set career-highs in home runs, stolen bases, and walks in his age-32 season. Was this season an anomaly or something we can expect from him in 2022? His advanced metrics tell us that this is likely an outlier season, unfortunately.

In no season before 2021 had Grossman ever hit more than 11 home runs or stolen more than nine bases. He posted a career-high 7.8% barrel rate after never having posted a rate above 5.5% while also posting a .399 xSLG after having averaged .377 for his career. He also posted a walk rate of 14.6%, which was the second-highest of his career and well above his previous three seasons' average. He hit the fastball exceptionally well also as he smacked 15 bombs against the pitch in 2021. This number is especially eye-popping as he had never hit 15 total home runs in any season prior to 2021 and the most he had ever hit against the fastball was nine, which came in 2016.

The numbers look a bit worse when we compare his lefty vs. right splits as well. He posted a .857 OPS vs. left-handers compared to a .734 OPS vs. right-handers. He also ranked in the 35th percentile or worse in terms of xSLG, hard-hit rate, and exit velocity, which are all categories you would expect to see him doing well in if we were to be able to sustain this output.

One positive to draw on for Grossman aside from the career highs is the Tigers' lineup moving forward. They ranked 22nd in total runs scored in 2021 but should be an improved offense with the addition of Javier Baez and continued improvement from their young talent. If Grossman is again penciled into the leadoff spot, he could put up some solid counting stats, but a repeat of 2021's numbers does not seem likely.

Conclusion

Overall, Robbie Grossman had the best season of his career in 2021. While he set career highs in home runs, stolen bases, and walks, it is not likely a season we will see him repeat in 2022. While he will certainly have some value heading into 2022 batting leadoff (and likely third vs. left-handed pitching) in an improved 2022 Tigers lineup, he is still going a bit too high in drafts. His current ADP is 169, which makes him an early 14th-round pick in 12-team mixed leagues. Instead of taking Grossman at this juncture, look to take his teammate, Akil Baddoo, at roughly the same ADP.

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