X
Lost password?

Don't have an account?
Gain Access Now

X

Receive free daily analysis

NFL
NBA
NHL
NASCAR
CFB
MLB
MMA
PGA
ESPORTS
BETTING

Already have an account? Log In

X

Forgot Password


POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Daily Stats & Leaders
All Pitcher Matchups
Compare Any Players
Compare Any Players
Rookies & Call-Ups
24x7 News and Alerts

Relief Pitchers Set To Bust In 2021

Sam Chinitz identifies three relief pitchers who could be busts in 2021 fantasy baseball. These RP are overvalued at their current ADP.

Projecting relievers is notoriously tricky, and that’s especially true after an irregular 2020 season. As is prone to happen in small samples of performance, otherwise strong relievers sometimes have down seasons that are not entirely in their control.

Still, some relievers are more likely to bust than others, and fantasy managers would do well to avoid those relievers on draft day. That doesn’t mean that these pitchers should be avoided at all costs -- at low enough ADPs, even the riskiest player can be tolerated -- but the pitchers listed below are exceptionally risky given their draft prices.

“Bust” can be a fairly subjective term, so here are a few ground rules before getting into the list: a pitcher would be a bust if they perform at a level that could plausibly be replaced by a player with an ADP around or above 100 picks later than their own, and a pitcher must have an ADP more expensive than 250 to be considered a true bust for fantasy purposes. With that in mind, below are three relief pitchers with relatively high chances of being busts in 2021.

Be sure to check all of our fantasy baseball lineup tools and resources:

 

Brad Hand, Washington Nationals

ADP: 135.17

Hand enjoyed an excellent 2020 season that saw him lead the league in saves while posting a sparkling 1.37 FIP, but some under-the-hood concerns make the 30-year-old a bust candidate for 2021. Most concerningly, Hand’s fastball velocity fell for the second consecutive season, taking the pitch's swinging-strike rate down with it.

Before 2020, Hand’s fastball hadn’t posted a swinging-strike rate below 9% since 2015, a season before his breakout as an elite reliever. And Hand’s diminished fastball performance contributed to his lackluster 10.5% overall swinging-strike rate, making his 33.7% strikeout rate unusually reliant on called strikes and likely to regress significantly in 2021.

Without a functional four-seam fastball (and barring any significant pitch-arsenal changes), Hand will effectively be a one-pitch pitcher (slider) with a couple of mediocre but not ideal secondary offerings. In that scenario, Hand would likely post an ERA around 4.00 without a steady hold on the closer role in Washington. That’s a lot of risk for a reliever with a top-150 ADP, and fantasy managers should be wary of drafting Hand that early as a result.

 

Dustin May, Los Angeles Dodgers

ADP: 162.65

May placed fifth in NL Rookie of the Year voting following 56 productive innings with a 2.57 ERA, but the 23-year-old isn’t even guaranteed a spot on the Dodgers’ Opening Day roster in 2021. After signing Trevor Bauer this offseason, the Dodgers boast a loaded pitching staff that includes a talented and crowded bullpen.

With three minor-league options left, the Dodgers may elect to start May off in the minor leagues this season. That would put a significant dent in his fantasy value on its own, but May’s major league innings aren’t likely to be particularly valuable either. Likely to pitch mostly as a long reliever or opener in the major leagues given the state of the Los Angeles rotation, May will likely be a non-contributor for most fantasy categories (except for in leagues that value holds). That makes May one of the more obvious bust candidates at reliever for 2021, and fantasy managers should avoid him in drafts as a result.

 

James Karinchak, Cleveland Indians

ADP: 102.96

Karinchak is one of the league’s most exciting pitchers, but his high walk rate makes him a bust candidate for the 2021 season. After walking 5.5 batters per nine innings over his minor league career, Karinchak posted an ugly 14.7% walk rate in the major leagues last season that was supported by a low 38% zone rate and a mediocre 31.4% chase rate. 

Only one pitcher (Aroldis Chapman in 2018) collected more than 20 saves with a walk rate higher than 14% since the start of 2015, and no other reliever in that sample picked up more than 16. To be fair, most relievers don’t also post a 17% swinging-strike rate as Karinchak did in 2020 (and could plausibly do again in 2021), but those numbers underscore the risk involved in investing an early-round pick on a walk-happy closer.

Pitching for a depleted Indians team doesn’t help matters. Cleveland is projected to be decent in 2021 with Pecota expecting roughly a .500 season, but more wins would likely be a boon for Karinchak’s fantasy value (Chapman’s Yankees had 100 wins in 2018, for reference). Save opportunities and wins don’t correlate particularly strongly, and there have been some notable low-win, high-save-opportunity teams in recent history (like the 2019 Tigers, who won 47 games but provided their relievers with 67 save opportunities), but a stronger Indians team would likely only help Karinchak.

Overall, Karinchak is a high-risk, high-reward option for fantasy managers in 2021. Given his relatively expensive 107 ADP, that risk level makes Karinchak a bust candidate in 2021. 



Download Our Free News & Alerts Mobile App

Like what you see? Download our updated fantasy baseball app for iPhone and Android with 24x7 player news, injury alerts, sleepers, prospects & more. All free!



More Fantasy Baseball Busts and Avoids




POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Daily Stats & Leaders
All Pitcher Matchups
Compare Any Players
Compare Any Players
Rookies & Call-Ups
24x7 News and Alerts

REAL-TIME FANTASY NEWS

Cal Raleigh

Continues Historic Homer Pace Tuesday
Jacob Wilson

Exits Early On Tuesday With Left Hand Contusion
Scottie Scheffler

Headlines Field at Genesis Scottish Open
Rory McIlroy

a Smart Play for Scottish Open
Adam Scott

Looking to Build on History at The Renaissance Club
NASCAR

Sepp Straka Not Likely to Find Momentum at Scottish Open
Justin Rose

Hopes Month Hiatus Helps Him Bounce Back at Scottish Open
Laken Tomlinson

Confident in Texans Offensive Line
J.K. Dobbins

the Starter in Denver?
JT Woods

Seahawks Release JT Woods
Darren Waller

Trade to Miami Becomes Official
Asante Samuel Jr.

Dolphins Interested in Asante Samuel Jr.
Nyheim Hines

Seeking Return to NFL
Dak Prescott

Expects to be Full-Go for Training Camp
Ajay Mitchell

Posts 16 Points in Summer League Win on Monday
Milwaukee Bucks

Vasilije Micic Waived by Bucks
Brice Sensabaugh

Logs 37 points in Summer League Win on Monday
Luis Garcia

Fans Four in Rehab Outing
GG Jackson II

Collects 27 Points in Summer League Loss
Ace Bailey

Scores 18 Points in Summer League Victory
NHL

Tyler Johnson Retires After 13 NHL Seasons
Jack McBain

Inks New Five-Year Deal with Mammoth
Cam York

Re-Signs with Flyers for Five Years
Kobe Bufkin

Cleared for Summer League Action
Jake Knapp

Fits the Mold for Success at The Renaissance Club
Milwaukee Bucks

Vasilije Micic Agrees to Contract Buyout with Bucks
PGA

Sungjae Im Still a Liability at Scottish Open
James Wiseman

Pacers Bring Back James Wiseman
Ludvig Aberg

is a Solid Option at Scottish Open
Tyrese Haliburton

to Miss Entire 2025-26 Campaign
Paolo Banchero

Signs Historic Five-Year Extension with Magic
Anthony Santander

Hoping to Hit Soon
Luis Robert Jr.

Returning in Short Order
Alex Bregman

Could Return Later This Week
Ketel Marte

Day-to-Day with Groin Tightness
Ty Gibbs

Finishes Second at Chicago and Advances in In-Season Challenge
Alex Bowman

Defeats Bubba Wallace in In-Season Challenge, but Not Without Controversy
Alex Bowman

Bubba Wallace Wrecked by Alex Bowman Again, Putting Playoffs in Doubt
Michael McDowell

Throttle Failure Ends Michael McDowell's Chances to Win at Chicago
Austin Hill

Earns First NASCAR Cup Series Top Ten at Chicago
Tyler Reddick

Scores a Strong Third-Place Run at Chicago
Kyle Busch

Matches his Best Career Finish At Chicago on Sunday
Denny Hamlin

Fights his Way to a Top-5 Finish at Chicago
William Byron

has his Worst Weekend of the Season at Chicago
Hunter Greene

Suffers Setback on Monday
Kyle Lowry

Staying With 76ers
Kyle Anderson

Lands in Utah
Kevin Love

Traded to Jazz in 3-Team Swap
Norman Powell

Traded to Miami
John Collins

Dealt to Clippers
J.J. Spaun

Finishes Tied For 14 at Travelers Championship
Xander Schauffele

Finishes Tied For 61 at Travelers Championship
Collin Morikawa

Finishes Tied For Eighth at Rocket Mortgage Classic
Robert MacIntyre

Finishes Tied For 17 at Travelers Championship
Si Woo Kim

Finishes Tied For 11 at John Deere Classic
Viktor Hovland

Withdraws From Travelers Championship
Tommy Fleetwood

Finishes Tied For Second at Travelers Championship
Brian Campbell

Wins John Deere Classic
Bronny James Jr.

Scores 10 Points
Harrison Ingram

Limited on Sunday
Golden State Warriors

Isaiah Mobley Drops 16 Points
Ryan Rollins

Staying with Bucks
T.J. Watt

Pittsburgh Still Not Close on New Contract
Terry McLaurin

Still Not Pleased with Contract Situation
Sonny Milano

on Track to Be Ready for Training Camp
Yu Darvish

to Make Season Debut on Monday
MLB

Nationals Fire Dave Martinez, Mike Rizzo
Jakub Dobes

Signs Two-Year Deal with Canadiens
KaVontae Turpin

Arrested on Two Charges
Cole Ragans

to Begin Throwing on Monday
Theo Johnson

Prioritizing his Health this Offseason
Andrés Giménez

Andres Gimenez Hits 10-Day Injured List
Jermaine Burton

Continues to Show Growth
NHL

Hendrix Lapierre Signs One-Year Deal with Capitals
Carson Hocevar

Should DFS Players Consider Carson Hocevar for Chicago Lineups?
Tye Kartye

Kraken Re-Sign Tye Kartye for Two Years
Ross Chastain

May be A Decent DFS Option for Chicago Lineups
Dmitri Voronkov

Signs Two-Year, $8.35 Million Extension with Blue Jackets
Ryan Preece

Should DFS Players Roster Ryan Preece at Chicago?
Austin Dillon

Is Too Great of A Risk to Add to Chicago Lineups
Zane Smith

Is A Value Play Worth Rostering At Chicago
Austin Hill

is A Favorable Value Option for Chicago DFS Lineups
Ty Dillon

Is Ty Dillon A Decent Driver to Add For NASCAR DFS At Chicago?
William Byron

Qualifying Crash Makes William Byron a Likely DFS Must-Have
Alex Bowman

Should Finish Well, but Probably Costs Too Much for Serious DFS Consideration
Joey Logano

Has Been Relatively Mediocre on Road Courses Lately
Ryan Blaney

Doesn't Really Fit Neatly into Optimal DFS Lineups
Cam Ward

"Not Expecting" to be handed Starting Job
Chase Claypool

Eager to Get Back on the Field
Wyatt Langford

Activated, Playing on Saturday
Jay Huff

on the Move to Indiana
Cam Whitmore

Wizards Acquire Cam Whitmore from the Rockets
LaJohntay Wester

Stands out on Special Teams
Clarke Schmidt

Likely to Undergo Tommy John Surgery
Nolan Arenado

Scratched from Saturday's Lineup
Vladimir Guerrero Jr.

Starting on Saturday
Corbin Carroll

Activated from 10-Day Injured List
Cincinnati Bengals

Shemar Stewart, Bengals Continue Contract Talks, No Progress Made
Ha-Seong Kim

Removed Early During Season Debut
ARI

Christian Fischer Retires From NHL at 28
NHL

Spencer Martin Moves to Russia
WAS

Anthony Beauvillier Re-Signs With Capitals for Two Years
Vladimir Guerrero Jr.

Sitting Out With Foot Issue
Isaiah Neyor

Impresses at Minicamp
Bo Bichette

Back in Blue Jays Lineup
Miles Sanders

Works With Starters During Mandatory Minicamp
Chimere Dike

Titans Could Move Chimere Dike Inside
Keandre Lambert-Smith

KeAndre Lambert-Smith not Guaranteed Roster Spot
Anthony Bradford

Working Hard to Win Back Starting Job
Clarke Schmidt

Placed on Injured List
SJ

Sharks Claim Nick Leddy Off Waivers
SJ

Sharks Sign Dmitry Orlov to Two-Year, $13 Million Contract
CAR

Nikolaj Ehlers Joins Hurricanes on Six-Year Contract
COL

Brent Burns Inks One-Year Deal with Avalanche
STL

Blues Land Pius Suter on Two-Year Deal
Morgan Frost

Agrees to Two-Year Extension with Flames
WPG

Gustav Nyquist Moves to Winnipeg
Cody Glass

Devils Re-Sign Cody Glass to Two-Year Deal
PIT

Anthony Mantha Joins Penguins
RANKINGS
C
1B
2B
3B
SS
OF
SP
RP

RANKINGS

QB
RB
WR
TE
K
DEF