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Welcome to our Ravens vs. Browns fantasy football start 'em, sit' em matchups analysis article for Week 4 of the 2023 NFL season.
Read our matchups analysis, player breakdowns, and lineup recommendations for the matchup and set those winning lineups. Good luck RotoBallers!
Baltimore Ravens at Cleveland Browns
Spread: Browns -1.0
Implied Total: Ravens (19) vs. Browns (20)
Pace: Ravens (18th) vs. Browns (28th)
Ravens Off. DVOA: 24.8% Pass (10th), 14.1% Rush (5th)
Browns Off. DVOA: 0.7% Pass (23rd), -9.9% Rush (21st)
Ravens Def. DVOA: -15.8% Pass (6th), -17.6% Rush (9th)
Browns Def. DVOA: -46.8% Pass (1st), -50.4% Rush (2nd)
Matchups We Love
None
Matchups We Hate
Ravens RBs
Cleveland has proven to be one of the elite defenses in the NFL, right there with the likes of Philly and San Francisco. They're No. 2 against the run by DVOA, No. 1 in terms of allowing the least amount of fantasy points to the running back position, and No. 2 in rush yards per attempt allowed. Gus Edwards is out of the concussion protocol while Justice Hill is trying to get back from a foot injury. However, neither is someone you want to start. That certainly applies to the combination of Melvin Gordon III and Kenyan Drake if they are splitting touches, too.
UPDATE: Hill is listed as questionable. It's not really relevant because you don't want to play him anyway, and if he's out Gordon and Drake will still take touches away from Edwards.
#NFL Defense Best Yards Allowed#Browns - 491#Bills - 759#49ers - 775#Cowboys - 786#Patriots - 811#Chiefs - 842#Rams - 854#Falcons - 863#Saints - 864#Ravens - 877#Lions -892 #Eagles - 930#Panthers - 987#Commanders - 995
The Cleveland Browns are on a historic pace! pic.twitter.com/sxjeC9fCeh
— NFL Rumors (@nflrums) September 27, 2023
Deshaun Watson (QB, CLE)
Watson faced a pass-funnel defense that everyone has crushed for over a year now and showed a level of competence we hadn't yet seen. He completed 82% of his passes for 289 yards and two touchdowns with no interceptions. He also added four carries for 16 yards. It's encouraging for the receiving corps, but he remains a risky streamer against Baltimore, whose pass defense is a lot better than Tennessee's.
UPDATE: Watson is technically listed as questionable, but he spoke about the injury, confirming that he'll be out there. The Browns also have their bye week after this game, so all signs point to him being active.
David Njoku (TE, CLE)
Njoku has four or fewer targets in every game with no touchdowns. Furthermore, he's had zero red zone targets. He's borderline unstartable at this point, especially against the Ravens.
UPDATE: Njoku sustained burn injuries to his face and arm during a burn accident on Saturday, so he's listed as questionable. He's best left on your bench.
Ravens Passing Attack
Not to be overshadowed by their run defense, the Browns rank No. 1 in pass defense DVOA, No. 1 in terms of allowing the least amount of fantasy points to the quarterback, wide receiver, and tight end position, and No. 1 in passing yards per attempt allowed. It doesn't mean you bench your Ravens players, but it does mean their ceiling takes a hit. Lamar Jackson was average as a passer but ended up utilizing his legs for a big day, some of which can be attributed to the weather. He had 11 designed runs on 14 rushing attempts for 101 yards and two scores. It was a vintage performance. The rushing production keeps him in the top 12 in spite of the matchup.
The usually reliable Mark Andrews actually trailed Zay Flowers in every receiving category. It's a great sign for Flowers, who benefited from the absence of Odell Beckham Jr. and the weather limiting downfield throws, but it's problematic for Andrews. He's still too good to consider fading, but it may remove the top three type season many of us thought was possible this year unless he reclaims his alpha role. Flowers' six yards per reception isn't ideal, but with constant pressure coming from the Cleveland D-line, I'd expect another high-volume game, keeping him in the top 36.
UPDATE: Rashod Bateman and Beckham have both been ruled out. It's good news for Flowers and Andrews, who'll have less target competition. Nelson Agholor will take over as the No. 2 receiver, but he's a very risky start against Cleveland.
Other Matchups
Jerome Ford (RB, CLE)
Ford struggled to run the ball against Tennessee just like most backs do, averaging 1.8 yards per carry. Fortunately, he scored a touchdown on the ground and through the air, resulting in a good day for fantasy. Kareem Hunt saw eight opportunities in his first game on only 20% of the snaps. Pierre Strong Jr. came in late to take six carries. They were dominating the Titans from start to finish, enabling them to rush 31 times, so we'll find out what the split looks like in a closer contest this week against the Ravens. It's a challenging matchup, but Ford has shown enough to keep him in the top 24.
Deshaun Watson to Jerome Ford for 6 👀
Ford might be a steal.
— NFL Notifications (@NFLNotify) September 24, 2023
Browns WRs
Amari Cooper was robbed of a long touchdown catch and run when an official blew the whistle thinking he stepped out of bounds. It was painful to watch, but he still found pay dirt later in the game en route to another huge performance. After two straight weeks of receiving seven-plus targets but only hauling in three passes, Elijah Moore finally came through with nine receptions for 49 yards. He still played fewer snaps than Donovan Peoples-Jones, but ran more routes and outproduced him in every way. It'll be a tougher matchup for these two, so Cooper drops outside the top 20, and Moore slots in as a top-36 receiver, especially in full-PPR formats.
Notable Injuries
Odell Beckham Jr. (ankle)
Justice Hill (foot)
Rashod Bateman (hamstring)
Deshaun Watson (shoulder)
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