RADIO
In this ongoing series, I've covered ADP risers at running back, wide receiver, and tight end. Now we'll get to the most important position on the field - quarterback.
As a quick review, Average Draft Position (ADP) indicates the average position where a player is drafted over more than one fantasy football draft. You can consider it as the price you have to pay to draft and get a player on your team. A high ADP (that is, actually, a low-numbered ADP) means that a player is going off draft boards early, and thus you'll need to draft him in the first rounds if you truly want him.
By now, with free agency and the draft finalized, it makes sense to look at how ADPs are varying during the last few days as we start to gear up for our fantasy draft season. In this series, I’ll highlight players at each skill position seeing significant fluctuation from just before the past NFL draft to right after it finished, using data from FFPC drafts that have taken place in that period. Today, it's time to look at some quarterback risers.
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Quarterback Fantasy Football ADP Risers
Kenny Pickett, Pittsburgh Steelers
Pickett was considered the best or at least the next-best quarterback of the 2022 rookie class along with Malik Willis. Turned out Pickett was the only first-round QB of this year's draft, and it wasn't even close. And after that, all Pickett has done is rise in the ADP boards because of 1) his landing franchise, 2) his situation, and 3) head coach Mike Tomlin's comments on the QB battle and the potential starter next year when the ball gets flying.
No matter how you look at it, Pickett rising 57 draft positions (nearly five full rounds in 12-team leagues) is an incredible development all things considered. If you've been living under a rock, Pittsburgh just signed Mitchell Trubisky in what seemed to be their move to solve the QB1 issue after Ben Roethlisberger's retirement. Now, that's all up in the air with very serious questions about who will be there in the pocket by Week 1. I wouldn't dare say Pickett or Trubisky will be the clear-cut starter at least until the Saturday before the Steelers kick their season off, honestly. But I know one thing and that is that I wouldn't be drafting any of Trubisky or Pickett this early as you could be getting just a year-long QB2. More of a couple of waiver wire fliers/targets than anything else, and that won't change.
Davis Mills, Houston Texans
The Texans, in contrast with the Steelers' approach to their pocket, made the absolute opposite move and stuck to second-year man Davis Mills as their starter entering 2022. Now, if you allow me, that's the irrefutable right move to do by Houston. Mills might not have been a staggering performer in 2021, but take a look at the Texans' depth chart from last season and you'll find an explanation for 85% of the young quarterback troubles. Even manning an offense in which perhaps, maybe, WR Brandin Cooks was the only viable pass-catcher, Mills still finished the season with 165 FP, 12.7 FPPG, and passing stats reading 394/263/2,664/16.
Houston is betting on Mills' development and improvement in his second season as a pro, and if all goes wrong, hey, there is another draft one year from now--and one that should bring much more talented players at the QB position. The Texans have not made many changes to their skill-position players, in fact, they've only added rookie WR John Metchie and oft-injured RB Marlon Mack along with rookie RB Dameon Pierce. With Nico Collins entering his second year and Brandin Cooks still in place, though, things should get at least a bit better for Mills in Houston next season. For 12-team fantasy GMs out there, though, the 14th-round price is still quite high as even on a clear QB1 role Mills has yet to prove he belongs to the elite.
Jalen Hurts, Philadelphia Eagles
Hurts' stock has gone up a little over a full round in 12-team drafts. The ADP is up to 13+ positions and Hurts is currently getting off draft boards at around the 68th overall pick, getting drafted as the QB8 in the early fantasy-draft season. Hurts is coming off a QB9 campaign in Philly last year in which he finally became the bonafide starter of the Eagles appearing (and starting) in 15 games through the year. He completed 61.3% of his 432 pass attempts for 16 touchdowns against just nine interceptions. All things considered, he was a 20.8 FPPG performer.
Had Hurts played all 17 games, he was on pace for a QB5 finish only behind Josh Allen, Tom Brady, Justin Herbert, and Patrick Mahomes. That's an extraordinary production, folks. Hurts also had the strongest rushing numbers among players at the position last season: 140 carries, 782 rushing yards, and 10 TDs ranking first in all of those cats among QBs with 500+ snaps. If you ask me, Hurts shouldn't be getting drafted later than the QB5 ahead of next season. The ADP keeps rising because 1) fantasy GMs are catching up to this man's talents and 2) the addition of legit WR1 A.J. Brown to the Eagles roster. As long as the ADP is still in the 60s or 50s, you can safely consider Hurts a bargain. If you can get him past those spots, consider yourself more than lucky!
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