Fantasy Football Running Back ADP Risers: NFL Draft Reaction

May 24, 2022

Antonio looks at 2022 fantasy football running back risers and draft sleepers. He analyzes ADP variation of RBs after the 2022 NFL Draft, assessing their values.

I am going to start this column by introducing the concept of ADP, which I'm pretty sure you are already familiar with. Just in case you're not, Average Draft Position (ADP) indicates the average position where a player is drafted over more than one fantasy football draft. You can consider it as the price you have to pay to draft and get a player on your team. A high ADP (that is, actually, a low-numbered ADP) means that a player is going off draft boards early, and thus you'll need to draft him in the first rounds if you truly want him.

Low or high ADP values, though, are not gospel. Each of us fantasy GMs have our strategies and value players differently depending on what we think is the most important for them to have in terms of abilities. No matter what, though, ADPs are good to know the "average value" of the "average GM" you'll be drafting against.

By now, with free agency and the draft finalized and just a few players left to be signed, it makes sense to look at how ADPs are varying during the last few days as we start to gear up for our fantasy draft season. In this series, I’ll highlight players at each skill position seeing significant fluctuation from just before the past NFL draft to right after it finished, using data from FFPC drafts that have taken place in that period. Today, it's time to look at some running back risers.

Running Back Fantasy Football ADP Risers

Tyler Allgeier, Atlanta Falcons

What a good landing spot can do for a rookie, huh? Ask freshest Atlanta Falcon rusher Tyler Allgeier, he of the 151st overall selection by Atlanta at the end of April. Nobody had Allgeier as an impact-player entering draft week, but the good situation he'll find himself in next season along with the fact that the Falcons are, well, playing for nothing, is most probably going to have him at least getting touches often and has definitely made an impact on fantasy GMs' views of the former BYU rusher.

Atlanta is expected to keep feeding RB/WR/Special-teamer Cordarrelle Patterson the rock and also signed Damien Williams, but Allgeier will take at least Mike Davis' (released) slot in the backfield depth chart and is a strong guy that could very well vulture goal-line touchdowns from the other two rushers in tow. The average ADP from the span covered above would be 200, but it's actually up to 150 these days. That's a 12/13th-round pick in 12-team leagues for an RB2/RB3 in his team, probably no more than an RB3/RB4 in the fantasy world in the best-case scenario. Not paying that price for such a what-if.

Dameon Pierce, Houston Texans

While Pierce is also the RB3 of his franchise, similar to Tyler Allgeier, he should have an easier way to climb the depth chart with his main competition in Houston being Marlon Mack (seven games played in the past two seasons combined) and Rex Burkhead (16 games and 147 touches in 2021 but with mediocre production). Pierce's talents were on par with Allgeier judging by his pre-draft ADP, but the ridiculous nine-round bump up in fantasy draft boards is telling you all you need to know about the situation he landed on this past draft.

Houston handed 200 carries to rushers last season while passing the ball 544 times for a 73/27 split, though with the likes of David Johnson and Burkhead manning the backfield, well, it probably made sense to turn to pass plays more often than not. Pierce's current ADP seems a bit high for a rookie that won't probably be the bonafide RB1 of his offense from the get-go, though Pierce could definitely turn into a league-winning waiver wire target to keep a very close eye on as the season progresses early.

James Cook, Buffalo Bills

One rookie in, one veteran out. That's what took place around Buffalo's backfield this offseason. What's good for Cook, though, is the fact that there is a consensus opinion out there positioning the rusher as the Bills' RB2 above Zack Moss compared to Matt Breida's RB3 role during the 2021 season.

Cook, who got drafted with a second-round pick after J.D. McKissic ended rejecting Buffalo's deal and returned to Washington, is not as good as his brother Dalvin. So much so, in fact, that even Buffalo's GM Brandon Beane has been quoted saying the rookie is just a "sub back". There is an upside for an RB3 debut season, but his role will be capped no matter what, as part of a backfield already featuring Devin Singletary and Zack Moss. Breida is only opening 26 carries from his last season numbers, so it's not that Cook is going to automatically earn 75+ carries out of thin air. Definitely not seeing that 10th-round ADP as a winning investment.

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