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Nick Ritrivi identifies prospects who may not live up to potential and should be dropped in dynasty fantasy baseball leagues ahead of the 2022 MLB season.
The dynasty format requires an owner to consider both the immediate and future implications of draft picks, trades, and waiver wire moves. Evaluating a player’s present and long-term future makes dynasty much more strategic, and unfortunately, much less forgiving given than redraft formats.
The decision to cut loose a prospect for another prospect, a major leaguer who fits a specific need, or for first-year player draft roster space is never easy. A wrong decision can haunt a manager for years in a dynasty league.
Below, I cover four former top prospects who can be dropped in dynasty formats, allowing managers to make room for other prospects, major league talent that fits an owner’s immediate needs, or a precious FYPD roster space. As Matt Damon says while shilling for crypto, fortune favors the bold (or is it the broke?...it might be the broke) -- so cut away.
Sherten Apostel (CI, TEX)
A personal favorite of mine, Texas Rangers corner infielder Sherten Apostel unfortunately makes the list. Ever since I saw him play in the South Atlantic League for the Low-A Hickory Crawdads in 2019, I made a point to get him on as many of my dynasty rosters as possible. In 2019 for Hickory, Apostel posted an impressive .258/.332/.470 slash to go with 15 home runs and 43 RBI over 319 plate appearances. The future was bright for the power-hitting Apostel and he was ranked in the top-100 on most prospect lists heading into 2020.
Since 2019, Apostel has been on a downward trajectory. The Rangers called Apostel up in 2020 during the pandemic shortened campaign and, over a very small 20 at-bats, he managed only two hits (one double) and nine strikeouts. In 2021, Apostel dealt with a knee injury and produced poorly over three minor league levels. He slashed a combined .235/.321/.416 with 10 HR and 34 RBI over 271 PA, including slashing just .205/.284/.282 with one HR across 78 AB in Triple-A. Notably, Apostel struck out 89 times in 2021, equating to a 32.8% K-rate.
Perhaps the 2020 layoff impacted his development. Or, perhaps his strikeout issues caught up with him in 2021 (he posted a 28.7% K-rate even during his successful 2019 campaign). Whatever the case, 2021 was a huge step in the wrong direction.
Apostel’s path to the majors has now become very murky. The Rangers have top-prospect Josh Jung as their future third baseman, not to mention corner infielder Dustin Harris, who was the 2021 Rangers prospect of the year. Apostel will begin 2022 in Triple-A Round Rock where he will try to get some of that shine back. Dynasty owners with roster space concerns, however, can probably cut bait at this point.
Hudson Head (OF, PIT)
Lots of strikeouts. Tons. Unfortunately, Pittsburgh Pirates outfielder Hudson Head is not a pitcher. Acquired by the Pirates in January of 2021 in the deal that sent Joe Musgrove to San Diego, Head was ranked as the Padres' seventh-best prospect at the time by Fangraphs (and sixth-best Padres prospect by MLB Pipeline).
The 84th overall pick in the 2019 MLB Draft has fallen off most top-prospect lists thanks to a poor 2021 campaign in Low-A Bradenton. In 2021, Head posted a .213/.362/.394 slash line to go with 15 HR and 50 RBI over 434 PA. His impressive OBP was courtesy of a 15.7% walk rate (68 walks). However, he struck out a Southeast League-leading 137 times, amounting to a 31.6% K-rate – a skill set that won’t translate well to the upper levels of the minor leagues (not to mention the majors).
Now ranked 41st in the Pirates system by Fangraphs, Head has fallen far since 2019. Of course, at just 20-years old, there is plenty of time for the Pirates to work on his swing and miss issues that will certainly limit his ceiling (Keston Hiura anyone?). Dynasty owners with limited roster space may not want to wait for this development if it ever comes.
Forrest Whitley, SP (HOU)
The Brent Honeywell Jr. of Houston’s organization, starting pitcher Forrest Whitley was considered a prized prospect drafted as the 17th overall pick by the Astros in the 2016 MLB Draft. He has not pitched since 2019. This is due to the COVID-19 pandemic and a shoulder injury that eliminated his 2020 MiLB season and an ulnar collateral ligament tear which led to Tommy John's surgery in March of 2021, ending Whitley’s 2021 campaign before it started.
In 2017, over three minor league levels and 23 games, Whitley posted a 2.83 ERA, 1.21 WHIP, and 143(!) strikeouts in 92 1/3 innings pitched. Total dominance. Since then, Whitley has endured four injuries – an oblique injury, a lat injury, and the previously mentioned shoulder and ulnar collateral ligament injuries. Additionally, in 2018, Whitley was suspended for 50 games for violating the MLB drug policy. After his return from suspension, he was decent over 72 2/3 IP (including 26 IP in the Arizona Fall League), but certainly not on the level of his 2017 success. In 2019 over four levels, Whitley was largely ineffective (with exception of his strikeout abilities), posting a brutal 7.99 ERA, a 1.73 WHIP, and striking out 86 over 59 2/3 IP.
The talent is certainly there, but as mentioned before, Whitley has not pitched since his ineffective 2019 campaign. He will likely remain sidelined well into the 2022 campaign recovering from Tommy John's surgery. This makes him expendable in most dynasty formats for the managers in need of roster space. 2017 was five years ago. Despite the pedigree, it’s time for dynasty managers to move on.
Kody Hoese, 3B (LAD)
Los Angeles Dodgers third baseman Kody Hoese was the 25th overall pick in the 2019 MLB Draft. Despite his pedigree and status as a standout in college where he hit .316/.402/.541 with 28 HR and 105 RBI over 160 games at Tulane, it has not yet translated to professional success.
In 41 games in 2019, Hoese slashed a solid .299/.380/.483 with five HR and 29 RBI in 171 plate appearances over two levels. Since then, however, there has been no real progression in his bat. The 2020 campaign was wiped out due to the pandemic. Then in 2021, Hoese was limited to just 69 games in his first full professional campaign largely due to an intercostal strain. In those 69 games, most of which were spent at Double-A Tulsa, Hoese was unimpressive. He slashed just .196/.247/.250 with two HR, 20 RBI, and two steals in 283 PA over two levels (including .188/.241/.245 at Double-A). Results in the Arizona Fall League this past season were also underwhelming. He hit just .200 with two HR and five RBI over 16 games and 55 AB.
Although Hoese projects as a starting third baseman, his development has plateaued, particularly with the power stroke seen at Tulane virtually nonexistent. As a result, 2022 will be a make-or-break season for the 24-year-old.
Hoese has excellent plate discipline and on-base skills, as we saw in college and 2019. Of course, there are questions. Will his power come along? Can he remain healthy to finally develop that power stroke? And what clear path to the majors does Hoese have with third baseman Miguel Vargas (not to mention corner infielder Brandon Lewis) also in the Dodgers system? Those dynasty managers without the patience or roster space to wait another season and find answers to those questions can move forward.
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