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We're here. The Big Game. GOAT vs. Baby Goat. It does feel a little strange that it was such a bizarre year overall and we're getting what feels like a matchup that was destined to happen all along. The high-flying Chiefs went 14-2 this year as coach Andy Reid has seemingly perfected a creative offensive scheme featuring an incredible core of skill players in Mahomes, Hill, and Kelce. Tom Brady didn't waste any time in getting his new squad acquainted with success as he led the Bucs to an 11-5 record and a Super Bowl birth. Both of these defenses have stepped up down the stretch, and this should be a tightly-contested, exciting Super Bowl. The weather could definitely play a factor in this game with rain in the forecast, so keep an eye on that as you prepare your DFS lineups.
Note: The forecast for Tampa Bay, FL as of Wednesday is 68 degrees with scattered thunderstorms. 50% chance of precipitation.
DFS Busts - Super Bowl
Chiefs Running backs
Clyde Edwards-Helaire ($10,000 FD, $7,000 DK)
Darrel Williams ($9,000 FD, $5,200 DK)
Le'Veon Bell ($6,000 FD, $800 DK)
Yup - all of them. It's really tough to trust any part of this backfield in the Super Bowl. If you've played some NFL DFS this season you're probably well aware of how dominant this Buccaneers Defense is against the run. They ranked first in rush DVOA by a country mile and gave up the fourth-least fantasy points per game to the position. They allowed a league-low 81.4 rushing yards per game and gave up the least rushing touchdowns in the NFL.
The other concern here is simply the Chiefs' reluctance to feed their backs. CEH handled a measly eight touches for eight yards in the Conference Championship as he came back from injury, though he did salvage his day a bit with a score. Williams has received 13 and 17 touches in the last two games, but CEH was inactive for one of them. The Ghost of Le'Veon Bell has seen minimal work all year and doesn't project for more than a handful of touches with two backs in front of him on the depth chart. To drive home the point, the Chiefs ran at the sixth-lowest rate in the NFL (39%) this season. There's obviously a perfectly fine reason for that as Mahomes, Hill, and Kelce are all at the very top of their respective positions. They should be throwing the ball for the majority of this game, which they have done (and have had immense success with) all season long. None of these backs have gotten much attention in the receiving game, which means they are likely to bust at their price tags in this incredibly difficult matchup.
Note: Bell is a risky dart-throw salary-saver over on DraftKings as he may only need a few touches to pay off $800. Minimal exposure to Williams makes some sense in GPP's if he's projecting to have low rostership.
Mike Evans ($11,500 FD, $8,400 DK)
Evans is coming off a solid game as he posted a 3-51-1 line against the helpless Kevin King and the Packers in the Conference Championship. That's a bit misleading, though, because he only caught three of his eight targets and all three of Tom Brady's interceptions came on throws intended for Evans (including at least one egregious drop). His salary is prohibitive as the third-highest priced receiver on the slate and though he did put up a huge 3-50-2 line in his first meeting with the Chiefs, he's going to have a difficult time providing value this time around. The Chiefs Defense allowed the third-least fantasy points per game to receivers this season and their secondary has looked great in their two playoff games, allowing just two touchdowns to opposing receivers and holding Stefon Diggs to a "meh" 6-77 line last week. Evans also has the worst 1-on-1 matchup among the top-three receivers this week as he'll see a lot of Bashaud Breeland in coverage. You can feel free to sprinkle him in as he can pay off his tag with a decent amount of volume and a touchdown, but the bust risk is certainly there. Godwin, Hill, and Kelce are much higher DFS priorities this week.
Rob Gronkowski ($6,500 FD, $3,000 DK)
Gronk has taken a clear backseat to Cameron Brate down the stretch as he's averaging an embarrassing 1.4 receptions and 23 receiving yards over his last seven games. He has just two catches on seven targets (43 receiving yards) in the playoffs and has been held without a touchdown for four consecutive weeks. Brate, meanwhile, has 11 catches on 17 targets (149 receiving yards) in that same stretch, including a score last week in Lambeau. The Chiefs aren't stellar against opposing tight ends as they allow the seventh-most fantasy points per game to the position, but there's nothing about Gronk's outlook that makes him someone you need to have in DFS on a showdown slate. He's a touchdown-or-bust player in the truest sense of the phrase and should be a minimal-exposure play in large-field GPP's only.
Injuries to Be Wary Of - Super Bowl
*Note: excludes players already listed as "out." Check out the RotoBaller player news feed for the latest news and injury updates.
Sammy Watkins (Q) - Calf
Watkins was limited at practice on Wednesday, but all signs are pointing to him being active on Sunday.
Antonio Brown (Q) - Knee
Brown got a limited practice in on Wednesday and is now tracking to suit up on Sunday. Scotty Miller and Tyler Johnson are much more volatile as DFS plays if Brown is active.
Demarcus Robinson (Q) - COVID19/Reserve
Robinson was placed on the COVID19/Reserve list on Monday. He has a shot to get cleared, so just keep an eye on his status. Byron Pringle, Mecole Hardman, and Sammy Watkins would see a slight uptick in usage in his absence.
Le'Veon Bell (Q) - Knee
Bell was limited at practice on Wednesday and should be good to go for Sunday. He doesn't project to get more than a few touches.
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Please note that in no way can we guarantee DFS success. Be sure to examine the latest injury updates, Las Vegas projected game totals, and late scratches before finalizing your lineups to ensure the players you are choosing are active on game day.
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