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Nicho's H2H points fantasy baseball waiver wire pickups for pitchers in Week 12 (June 16 - June 22). Free-agent pitchers to add in points leagues.
Hey RotoBallers! Welcome to the last week of this weekly column, where I target starting pitchers on the waiver wire in points leagues. This will be the last week we publish this specific article, and I wanted to express my sincere gratitude to those of you who have been following it on a weekly basis.
Since this is our last week, I want to leave you all with my top four starting pitchers currently owned in fewer than 50 percent of leagues, according to Yahoo, who have the highest upside for the second half of the year, rather than focusing specifically on Week 12. Below (in tier 2), I will still provide solid pickups for Week 12, but most importantly, I want to leave you with the players I believe have the most upside to help your team for the rest of the season.
Keep following @RotoBallerMLB and me, @NichoRoessler, on X to stay updated with the latest content. You can always message me with your fantasy baseball questions; I'm happy to provide input! Bookmark this page if you want to look back at any of my weekly recommendations or other RotoBallers' recommendations for MLB streamers to stay ahead of other teams in your league. Best of luck the rest of the season, and let's keep swinging for the fences!
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Shane Baz, SP - Tampa Bay Rays
43% rostered
Tampa Bay Rays right-hander Shane Baz is having an up-and-down season, which is reflected by only being owned in 43 percent of leagues; however, the former first-round pick has electric stuff, evident by his 107 Stuff+. That being said, he has struggled a bit lately, with a 5.23 ERA in two June starts and a tough May, marked by a 7.26 ERA in six starts.
In April, he was essentially Cy Young with a 2.45 ERA over five starts. So, which month is the real Baz? Let's first examine the advanced metrics. He owns a 4.97 ERA, a 4.08 xERA, a 3.98 SIERA, and a 3.96 xFIP. As mentioned above, his 107 Stuff+ is above average, and his 106 Pitching+ is also well above average, meaning he has reasonable control combined with how good his pitches are.
When we consider all the expected numbers being better than his actuals, combined with his strong Stuff+, I lean toward Baz being somewhere in the middle of his April and May, with around a 3.50 to 3.75 ERA for the rest of the season, making him a substantial addition to your team, given his 23.2 career strikeout percentage. Additionally, Baz has a career ERA of 3.98.
Shane Baz, K'ing the Side in the 1st. ⛽️ pic.twitter.com/hoD2hPSvKU
— Rob Friedman (@PitchingNinja) June 9, 2025
For being a primarily North-to-South pitcher, he generates a fantastic ground ball rate of 51 percent, which bodes well, considering he is playing his home games at George M. Steinbrenner Field this year. Baz primarily features three pitches: a great fastball, ranking in the 86th percentile in velocity, a wipeout knuckle curve that holds batters to a .223 BA and has a 22.9 percent whiff rate, and an excellent changeup with a 31.2 percent whiff rate and 17.7 inches of tail.
Recommendation: Baz has had his ups and downs so far in 2025, but considering the most significant upside a starting pitcher can give you in points leagues is strikeout potential, a strong ground ball rate, and a respectable walk rate, to me, Baz checks all those boxes. This is why he is my top choice to help your team for the remainder of the year. If he is on your waiver wire, you should comfortably spend about 20% of your FAAB to add him to your squad.
Hayden Birdsong, SP - San Francisco Giants
41% Rostered
A few weeks ago, Giants right-hander Hayden Birdsong was the newest "cool kid" on the block after he replaced Jordan Hicks in the rotation. Coming into the 2025 season, he was recommended by many experts as a sleeper pick later in drafts. Still, when he didn't get the nod to start in the rotation after a solid Spring Training, he spent the first few months in the bullpen, patiently waiting in the wings.
Fast forward to May 20, and he made his first start of the season after he had a rock-solid 2.31 ERA in 11 relief appearances in April and May. At that time, fantasy managers were scrambling to the waiver wire to pick him up. Since then, he has made five starts, logged 25 innings, and has a 3.24 ERA, with nine walks and 26 strikeouts. Not bad at all, right? However, I think people's expectations may have been a bit higher than his performance in those five starts, creating a small buy-low opportunity, which may be why he is still rostered in less than 50 percent of leagues.
But let's look under the hood a bit, shall we? Similar to Baz, Birdsong is a north-to-south pitcher, and he generates a significant amount of movement on his pitches. His four-seamer generates 17.9 inches of rise and 5.6 inches of tail while his curveball drops off the table with 14 inches, with 4.6 inches of break.
His changeup is also disgusting, with 11.9 inches of tail and 0.8 inches of drop. He leverages his slider 26 percent of the time, but I believe it to be his worst pitch in terms of movement. Not surprisingly, opponents are rocking that pitch to the tune of .326 BA, while holding opponents to a collective .231 BA combined, which aligns with his xBA of .225.
My gripe with the slider is that it doesn't generate a ton of break against right-handed hitters, with only 2.1 inches of break. Not much east-to-west movement. I guess there is my shameless plug to tell Birdsong to rely more on his four-seamer, curveball, and changeup. On a serious note, there's a reason he's in the big leagues, and I'm writing this article.
Hayden Birdsong's 3Ks thru 2. 🐦⬛🎶 pic.twitter.com/nuG31y5l4w
— Rob Friedman (@PitchingNinja) June 1, 2025
Birdsong's outlook for the remainder of the year only seems to be pointing up. He pitches in the third-most pitcher-friendly ballpark in MLB, and is backed by a good squad behind him (Giants are 41-29). In addition, he doesn't seem to have much competition behind him, which doesn't provide much of a real threat to take his spot if he does stumble a few times.
Recommendation: I like Birdsong's outlook for the remainder of the season. I believe he offers a significant amount of upside in 12-plus team leagues. Even in 10-person leagues, I think he has more untapped strikeout potential, and he will only grow as a starter throughout the season. He has three strong pitches he can rely on, and he is only 23 years old with 21 starts in his MLB career. It should only get better for him from now on. I would recommend 15-20% of your FAAB.
Shane Smith, SP - Chicago White Sox
34% Rostered
I almost feel like I owe White Sox right-hander Shane Smith an apology for ignoring him for this long. The Rule 5 draft pick has given the White Sox a reliable arm to toe the rubber every five days. In 68 1/3 innings pitched, he owns a 2.37 ERA, 1.17 WHIP, and a 22.4 percent strikeout rate.
In addition, he has an above-average fastball velo (66th percentile), a reasonable whiff rate (28.2%), limits barrel percentage (80th percentile), generates a healthy amount of ground balls (44.7%), and has excellent extension (6.7 feet). Across the board, his actual numbers are making him a slightly above-average pitcher.
Now his advanced stats do show some signs of regression; however, he is still slightly above average under the hood, with a 3.71 xERA, 4.09 xFIP, and 4.09 SIERA. In 13 starts this season, he has yet to allow more than three earned runs in any of his starts. He is putting together a very consistent approach to his starts, and who doesn't like consistency?
His arsenal includes a four-seamer, changeup, slider, and curveball. Combined, he is holding hitters to an impressive .210 average. Considering Smith does not have as much MLB time under his belt as the other three on this list, his production is too good to ignore. Last season in MiLB, he threw 94 1/3 innings and posted an impressive 3.04 ERA, 10.78 K/9, and 2.77 BB/9.
Those numbers in 2024, combined with what he has shown in 13 starts at the MLB level, indicate that Smith has what it takes to not only provide value in fantasy baseball but also be a reliable No. 4 or No. 5 starter in an MLB rotation.
Shane Smith is looking like an All-Star 🫡
6.0 IP, 1 H, 1 ER, 2 BB, 4 K
89 pitches - 56 strikes (10 swinging)
— Sox On 35th (@SoxOn35th) June 11, 2025
Playing for the White Sox does limit his upside (bottom three in runs scored so far in 2025), but the production he is putting out there every five days is impressive. He ranks in the 90th percentile or better in pitching, fastball, and offspeed run value, which tells you how many runs a pitcher has saved or allowed compared to league average, broken down by the pitch type or overall.
Recommendation: While I do see some regression for Smith (he will not have a 2.37 ERA all season), it's hard to ignore his last 160 innings pitched in Triple-A and MLB. I would plan to spend 10-15% of your FAAB to add him to your team. Smith is more valuable in points leagues that prioritize quality starts more than wins or losses.
Landen Roupp, SP - San Francisco Giants
33% Rostered
The Roupp is on fire! Giants right-hander Landen Roupp has been fantastic thus far this season, with a 3.29 ERA and a 1.36 WHIP in 68 1/3 innings pitched. After a tough start in April, with a 5.10 ERA in six starts, he has flipped the script in May and June, with a 1.73 ERA and 2.19 ERA, respectively.
Taking a closer look at his advanced statistics, he has a 3.50 ERA, 3.79 xFIP, and a 4.01 SIERA, which all seem to align with his actuals, just slightly higher. Although there may be some slight regression, this is his first full season as a starter, and I would argue that he will continue to grow in this role and mature as a starting pitcher, as evidenced by his progression from April to the present.
What I like most about Roupp is that, as the season has progressed, he has developed his third pitch and is now throwing his changeup to left-handed hitters more often. It's a good pitch in terms of movement, with 16.5 inches of tail and 1.9 inches of drop. Additionally, he is throwing it 14.7 percent of the time and is holding opponents to a .189 BA.
To put that into perspective, last year he threw the pitch only 9.4 percent of the time. That being said, he spent some time as a reliever as well in 2024, so the need for a third pitch was not as pressing.
His curveball has to be one of the better pitches in the league, averaging 18.9 inches of break and 7.1 inches of drop. He holds opponents to a .157 average, and it generates an elite 38.7 percent whiff rate. His sinker has room for improvement, as opponents are seeing it well, rocking that pitch to the tune of a .364 average. That being said, it offers excellent movement with 18.4 inches of tail and a 3.6-inch rise.
Landen Roupp, Mean 3 Curveball Sequence. 😡
21 inches, 22 inches & 22 inches of horizontal break. pic.twitter.com/T3RYLFbqRm
— Rob Friedman (@PitchingNinja) May 28, 2025
The movement on all of his pitches is evident by his 93rd percentile in hard-hit percentage and the 90th percentile in average exit velocity. He does not allow hard contact and has an average chase, whiff, and strikeout percentage (all ranking in the 43rd to 54th percentile). As the season has progressed, he has also started to work deeper into games and has been more efficient with his pitches.
Roupp benefits from many of the factors I mentioned with Birdsong above, as he pitches in the third-most pitcher-friendly ballpark in MLB and is backed by a strong squad behind him (the Giants are 41-29).
Recommendation: Roupp is developing his third pitch, which has allowed him to offset opposing teams' attempts to stack left-handed batters against him, thereby minimizing the use of his curveball (his best pitch). However, with this addition, he has not only worked deeper into games but has also improved against left-handed hitters. I would plan to spend 10-15% of your FAAB to secure him on your roster.
Honorable Mentions - Others To Prioritize
I understand that deeper leagues (12 or more teams) may not have the players listed above available. Therefore, check out the list below for pitchers to add to your watch list or stream this week, based on their matchups (Tier 2).
Tier 1: Team Streamers
Pitchers Who Could Stick Around, But We Need to See More Consistency From or Improved Underlying Numbers— they are in no particular order.
- Brayan Bello, BOS
- Walker Buehler, BOS
- Mick Abel, PHI
- Dustin May, LAD
- Jack Leiter, TEX
- Grant Holmes, ATL
- Luis Severino, ATH (I have a hunch he gets traded to a better situation at the deadline)
- Noah Cameron, KCR
- Adrian Houser, CWS
- Lucas Giolito, BOS
- Edward Cabrera, MIA
- Cade Horton, CHC
- Aaron Civale, CWS
- Will Warren, NYY
- Charlie Morton, BAL
- Kyle Harrison, SFG
- Clayton Kershaw, LAD
- Nick Martinez, CIN
- Tyler Anderson, LAA
- Jose Soriano, LAA
- Michael Soroka, WSN
Tier 2: Plus Matchup Only
Great matchups for the week (Picking on teams in the bottom fifth in runs scored)
- Erick Fedde, STL (faces CWS)
- Bowden Francis, TOR (faces CWS)
- Keider Montero, DET (faces PIT)
- Mitchell Parker, WSN (faces COL)
- Trevor Williams, WSN (faces COL)
Tier 3: Desperation Tier
You've Probably Made Some Bad Choices Already
- Kyle Freeland, COL
- Ryan Feltner, COL
- German Marquez, COL
- Antonio Senzatela, COL
- Ryan Gusto, HOU
- Colton Gordon, HOU
-
Jack Kochanowicz, LAA
- Kyle Hendricks, LAA
- Simeon Woods-Richardson, MIN
- Tyler Anderson, LAA
- Most Athletics pitchers at Sutter Health Park.
Tier 4: The Stashbox
If you can stash these players on your IL or NA spot, I recommend doing so as soon as possible.
- Bubba Chandler, PIT
- Brandon Woodruff, MIL (It appears he is owned in 58% of leagues, but I want to make sure you don't miss him)
- Logan Henderson, MIL (optioned to Triple-A but has been awesome in his handful of starts at the MLB level)
- Justin Verlander, SFG
- Luis Gil, NYY
- Andrew Painter, PHI (Made Triple-A debut on May 8)
- Max Scherzer, TOR
- Sean Manaea, NYM
- Spencer Arrighetti, HOU
- Kutter Crawford, BOS
- Yu Darvish, SDP
- Max Scherzer, TOR
- Shane Bieber, CLE
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