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Trent Grisham 2021 Outlook: Homers and Steals with Batting Average Risk
4 years agoSan Diego Padres outfielder Trent Grisham made the most of 2020, slashing .251/.352/.456 with 10 homers and 10 swipes over 252 PAs. The counting stats came as no surprise to fantasy managers who followed Grisham's MiLB performance, as he swiped 13 bags with 32 HR across three levels in 2019. Grisham's Statcast numbers also support his 20/20 potential over a full season, as his 29.1 ft./sec Statcast Sprint Speed is elite while his 94.1 mph average airborne exit velocity and 11.1% rate of Brls/BBE are well above average. Likewise, Grisham's 12.3 BB% was foreshadowed by the fact that he never had a single minor league stop with less than a 14.1 BB%. That said, Grisham could be a drain on a fantasy team's batting average. His 37.9 Swing% was low enough that he's likely to K at an above-average clip despite his eye, while his 16 IFFB% led to a lot of weak pop-ups that weren't reflected in his .310 BABIP thanks to an unsustainable 24.8 LD%. He only hit .251, so he doesn't have much room for error. Grisham is a worthwhile sign at his current ADP of 58.16, but make sure to account for the possibility of a low average. His value also skyrockets in OBP formats.
