January 8, 2021

After his 2019 breakout, Minnesota Twins outfielder Max Kepler took a step back in 2020. In 196 plate appearances, Kepler posted just a .228/.321/.439 line with nine home runs and 23 RBI. Over a full 162-game season (assuming 500 at-bats) Kepler's home run total equated to, roughly, a 27 HR season. Though this output constituted a decline from his 36 HR campaign in 2019, it was in line with pre-season expectations given his prior underlying power metrics. A 2020 decline in overall exit velocity, a decrease in exit velocity on FB/LD (91.3 mph in 2020 down from 92.9 mph in 2019), a low barrel rate, and a 10% drop in the percentage of 100 mph fly balls hit in 2020 (when compared to 2019), suggested an even steeper drop in HR totals. However, Kepler's 21.9 degree launch angle likely capped this HR decline by driving up his fly ball volume. All of these figures suggest a further decrease in HR numbers for Kepler in 2021. In terms of average, Kepler's .258 xBA and plate discipline metrics consistent with his 2019 totals suggest he was relatively unlucky in this department in 2020. Kepler should see some rebound in batting average in 2021, though struggles with offspeed pitches, breaking balls, and lefties could cap such positive regression. With an ADP of 182, Kepler makes for a reasonable pick as a third or fourth outfielder who can offer 20-25 HR, solid RBI, and run totals, with an average around .250.--Nick Ritrivi - RotoBaller