Max Kepler 2021 Outlook: Moderate Power With Positive Average Regression
4 years agoAfter his 2019 breakout, Minnesota Twins outfielder Max Kepler took a step back in 2020. In 196 plate appearances, Kepler posted just a .228/.321/.439 line with nine home runs and 23 RBI. Over a full 162-game season (assuming 500 at-bats) Kepler's home run total equated to, roughly, a 27 HR season. Though this output constituted a decline from his 36 HR campaign in 2019, it was in line with pre-season expectations given his prior underlying power metrics. A 2020 decline in overall exit velocity, a decrease in exit velocity on FB/LD (91.3 mph in 2020 down from 92.9 mph in 2019), a low barrel rate, and a 10% drop in the percentage of 100 mph fly balls hit in 2020 (when compared to 2019), suggested an even steeper drop in HR totals. However, Kepler's 21.9 degree launch angle likely capped this HR decline by driving up his fly ball volume. All of these figures suggest a further decrease in HR numbers for Kepler in 2021. In terms of average, Kepler's .258 xBA and plate discipline metrics consistent with his 2019 totals suggest he was relatively unlucky in this department in 2020. Kepler should see some rebound in batting average in 2021, though struggles with offspeed pitches, breaking balls, and lefties could cap such positive regression. With an ADP of 182, Kepler makes for a reasonable pick as a third or fourth outfielder who can offer 20-25 HR, solid RBI, and run totals, with an average around .250.
Max Kepler Dealing With Back Injury
2 weeks agoMLB.com's Todd Zolecki reports that Philadelphia Phillies outfielder Max Kepler (back) is dealing with a bruised lower back and doesn't currently have a timetable for a return. Kepler collided with the outfield wall in Sunday's Grapefruit League game against the Baltimore Orioles and had to leave the game. The 32-year-old veteran wasn't in the lineup on Monday and will apparently miss a bit more time at the tail end of camp. With Opening Day coming next Thursday, March 27, against the division-rival Washington Nationals, it's entirely possible that he'll have to open his first year in Philly on the injured list. When healthy, Kepler should be on the strong side of a platoon in left field, but he may need to pick it up offensively in order to keep that role. The injury-prone outfielder played in only 105 games in his final season with the Twins and hit .253 with eight home runs and 42 RBI.
Source: MLB.com - Todd Zolecki
Source: MLB.com - Todd Zolecki
Max Kepler Exits Early On Sunday After Collision
2 weeks agoPhiladelphia Phillies outfielder Max Kepler (undisclosed) exited Sunday's contest after colliding with the left field wall. He was replaced by Christian Arroyo. Fantasy managers should continue to monitor his status as the team will likely provide an update after the contest. However, he was able to exit the game on his own power, which is a positive sign. Earlier in the winter, the Phillies signed Kepler to a one-year deal worth $10 million. When healthy, he will likely be on the strong side of a platoon in left field alongside Brandon Marsh. Last season, Kepler posted a .253/.302/.380 slash line with 21 doubles and eight home runs. He generated a modest .247 xBA with a .381 xSLG. If Kepler were to miss time early in the season, Marsh would likely have a full-time role in left field.
Source: Todd Zolecki
Source: Todd Zolecki
Max Kepler Faces Live Pitching
1 month agoPhiladelphia Phillies outfielder Max Kepler (knee) was able to face live pitching on Sunday and appears to be past the knee injury that cut his 2024 campaign short. Kepler was shut down from baseball activities after September 1 due to left patellar tendinitis. However, seeing the 32-year-old face live pitching early in spring training suggests he will not see any restrictions during camp. Earlier in the offseason, the Phillies signed Kepler to a one-year $10 million contract. Last season in Minnesota, Kepler posted a .253/.302/.380 line with eight home runs. However, during the 2023 campaign, Kepler held a strong .260/.332/.484 line with 24 long balls. Fantasy managers should monitor his progress during spring training but should expect him to be on the strong side of a platoon in a corner outfield position alongside Brandon Marsh.
Source: Corey Seidman
Source: Corey Seidman
Phillies Sign Max Kepler To One-Year Deal
3 months agoAccording to Todd Zolecki of MLB.com, the Philadelphia Phillies have signed free-agent outfielder Max Kepler to a one-year contract. Kepler has spent his entire 10-year MLB career playing with the Minnesota Twins. Last season, he saw his campaign cut short due to left-knee tendinitis he suffered in early September. Across 105 games in 2024, the veteran outfielder posted a .253/.302/.380 slash line with 21 doubles, eight home runs, 42 RBI and one swiped bag. Under the hood, he generated a below-average 36.8% hard-hit rate and 6.2% barrel rate. In addition, he posted a low .301 xwOBA, which was his lowest mark since the 2019 season. Fantasy managers should expect Kepler to operate as a depth outfielder in Philadelphia who will contend for a starting role in spring training.
Source: Todd Zolecki
Source: Todd Zolecki
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