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Kenley Jansen 2021 Outlook: Still Capable, But Dominance Not Returning
4 years agoIt's no secret that Jansen is no longer what he was as recently as 2017. From 2019-20, his ERA did improve, from 3.71 in 63 innings to 3.33 in 24 1/3 innings. The main cause was a sharp decrease in home runs allowed, but he also set a career-low 25% ground ball rate, so it's too optimistic to assume he'll keep the home runs down again in a larger 2021 sample. Jansen had his best strikeout rate since 2017 at 32.4% but also his worst walk rate since 2012 (8.8%). The net result on xFIP was a third-straight year setting a career-worst mark, this time 4.18, which is still within reason. In terms of his stuff, he did gain some movement on his cutter in 2020, but it lost another 0.8 mph, sitting at 90.9 mph. All that said, while the old, dominant version of Jansen is long gone, he's still a competent pitcher and quite durable; his 11 saves in 2020 tied for third in MLB and he enters 2021 as RotoBaller's ninth-ranked relief pitcher. If your draft has reached his 137 ADP, you still don't have a closer, and you're not punting saves, consider drafting him then.
