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Dustin May 2023 MLB Player Outlook: Star In The Making Returns But Temper Expectations
2 years agoDustin May's late-season return from Tommy John Surgery (TJS) went about as well as expected. In six starts (30.0 IP), May had a 2-3 W-L record, 4.50 ERA, 1.17 WHIP and 29 Ks. It's difficult to put much into the numbers given that May was returning from injury and the Dodgers certainly weren't going to push him but the important things to monitor did look good. His fastball velocity averaged 97.3 MPH, down only slightly from the 97.8 MPH average in 2021 (23.0 IP) and his 12.9% SwStr and 29.7% Whiff% were similar to his 2021 numbers pre-injury. At this point, we've seen enough of May's potential to know he's close to being a star and his career numbers in the Majors paint that picture too. Over 143.2 IP, May has an 8-8 W-L record, 3.26 ERA, 1.09 WHIP and 140 Ks. He sports a 3.61 xFIP and 3.81 SIERA and it's around those numbers we can expect to see from May in 2023. May has never topped 150.0 IP in a season across all levels and it's highly unlikely he'll do so this year in his first full season since TJS. The talent is there but for 2023, temper expectations as his workload will be limited. If he can stay healthy this year, the sky is the limit for May moving forward.
