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Cal Quantrill 2022 Player Outlook: Solid Starter But Don’t Overdraft Based on 2021 ERA
3 years agoOver the last two seasons, Cal Quantrill has put up a 2.77 ERA in 181.2 IP yet his current ADP is still only ~265. A look at his underlying numbers will show us why. Despite the sub-3.00 ERA, since 2020 Quantrill has a 4.40 xFIP and 4.41 SIERA while having a 4.13 xERA in 2020 and 3.92 xERA in 2021. Of the 104 pitchers with 150+ IP since 2020, Quantrill's -1.32 ERA-FIP is the second-highest in baseball while his 80.4% LOB% is tied-10th highest. It should come as no surprise that all projection systems have Quantrill putting up a 4.00+ ERA in 2022. Quantrill's success looks largely down to good fortune. He doesn't offer any strikeout upside either as his 19.6% K% last year was in the 22% percentile but he did have an above-average BB% (7.6%) which ranked in the 60th percentile. The AL Central looks to be more competitive than it has done in recent years and without any improvements on the offensive side for the Guardians, wins might not be so easy to come by for Quantrill while double-digit wins might be attainable but far from being a lock. Quantrill does limit hard contact, as evidenced by his HardHit% being in the 80th percentile or better in each season since his MLB debut in 2019. But he lacks any upside and is little more than a so-so late-round option in drafts.
