Adam Jones 2019 Player Outlook: Over-the-Hill or Unlucky?
6 years agoGoing into last season, Adam Jones had a reputation in the fantasy world for being boring, yet consistent and reliable. Between 2010 and 2017 Jones never hit below .265 or above .285, never hit fewer than 25 home runs or more than 33, and never had an OPS below .746 or above .839. However, the 33-year-old showed his first real signs of age-related decline in 2018. After hitting between 26 and 29 home runs from 2014-2017, Jones posted a just 15 bombs and a .138 ISO in 2018, his lowest totals since his first full season in 2008. It would seem as if Father Time has finally come for Adam Jones, but can the stalwart outfielder hold him off for one more year?
Jones should benefit from HR/FB regression, as his 8.4% HR/FB ratio in 2018 was more than 6% lower than his career rate. That wasn’t because Jones didn’t strike the ball well; he had an 88 MPH average exit velocity and 13-degree average launch angle last year. Those marks are slightly better than his career numbers and better than league average. Furthermore, Jones hit 35 doubles in 2018, his highest total since 2013. An inordinate number of his extra-base hits went for doubles instead of home runs. He could certainly bounce back in the power department in 2019. While Jones’ aggressive, swing-first approach typically doesn’t age well, his 2018 contact rate and whiff rate were both in line with his career marks. He’s not the sexiest pick, but Jones could provide good value at his current NFBC ADP of 281.