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Aaron Civale 2020 Outlook: Usable Volume With Minimal Upside
5 years agoAaron Civale had an interesting MLB debut in 2019, producing a 3-4 record and 2.34 ERA over 57 2/3 IP for the Tribe. Unfortunately, the then 23-year-old's peripherals weren't nearly as good. His strikeout rate (20.3 K%) was below average while his xFIP was 4.61. Civale posted similar numbers in 30 1/3 IP at Double-A last season (19.8 K%, 2.67 ERA, 3.22 xFIP), but did enjoy a strikeout spike in 42 1/3 IP at Triple-A (26.1 K%) even if his ERA was two full runs better than his xFIP (2.13 vs. 4.13). It wouldn't be prudent to expect Ks in 2020, as his primary pitch is a sinker that recorded just a 2.3 SwStr% last season. While he also features a cutter, slider, curve, and change, none of them are above-average either. As such, Civale doesn't have much fantasy upside. He still has some value as a bulk guy who shares a division with two awful offenses in Kansas City and Detroit, but you can probably grab him on waivers when he has favorable matchups as opposed to taking him in your draft. If you're in a deeper league, Civale is a low-risk, low-reward selection at his current NFBC ADP of 297.
