June 8, 2023

Atlanta Falcons tight end Kyle Pitts is a beast. Plain and simple. His size and speed metrics are from another planet. He is a matchup nightmare for safeties and linebackers, and he should be a dominant force in the red zone, that is, if his head coach knew how to use him correctly. He barely cracked a 70% snap share, was 43rd at his position in routes run (172), and was an inexcusable 38th in red zone targets with five. It is time for this team to realize the weapon that they have at their disposal. Pitts broke onto the scene in 2021 as a rookie with 68 receptions on 110 targets for 1,026 yards and one touchdown. It was the second-best yardage season for a rookie tight end in the history of the NFL. Given his talent and his first-year production, the sky was the limit for Pitts, and he was drafted as the consensus TE3. Unfortunately, he fell flat on his face, and his stats decreased in every category across the board. His targets dropped from 6.4 to 5.9 per game, and his yardage plummeted from 60.4 to 35.6 per game. Accordingly, his yards per catch dropped as well and went from 15.1 to 12.7. As if his lapse in production was not difficult enough for fantasy managers to overcome, he suffered a sprained MCL in Week 11 and missed the remainder of the year. It is easy to assume that things could not get worse for Pitts moving forward, but the problem is that head coach Arthur Smith ran the ball more than any other team in the league, and the Falcons drafted generational running back Bijan Robinson, which could lead to even heavier run-based play calls. However, there is still hope for Pitts and his potential fantasy production, and it lies in the Falcons' lack of pass-catching weapons. Essentially Pitts and Drake London are the only viable pass catchers on the team. He should see 25% of the passing volume just by stepping onto the field. He should also see improved target accuracy from Desmond Ridder as opposed to Marcus Mariota, who only gave him a 59% catchable target rate. Pitts should also face less double coverage since defenses will not be able to always keep their safeties back with the threat of Robinson in the backfield. Pitts is oozing with big play potential, and if utilized properly, he could break the position. Whenever he was targeted, Pitts finished first out of all tight ends for a team's air yards share (32.9%), deep targets (13), and target rate (34.3), and was second in an average distance of target (13.1) and target share (27.3%). If Pitts sees his volume increase to roughly seven or eight targets per game (5.9 in 2022), which should be the norm, and sees his role grow in the red zone, he could very well finish alongside the likes of Travis Kelce and Mark Andrews. He is currently being drafted as the TE5 or TE6, and I am very comfortable with him in that spot. The only thing standing in the way between Pitts and fantasy superstardom is Arthur Smith.--Frank Dyevoich, Esq.