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PGA DFS: Vegas Report - John Deere Classic


Welcome back to the PGA DFS: Vegas Report. They say first impressions are everything, and the 3M Open did not disappoint in its inaugural showing. Entering the tournament, Viktor Hovland had received most of the praise as being golf's next big thing during the past few weeks, but his former Oklahoma State teammate Matthew Wolff was the one that stole the show on Sunday with a walk-off 26-foot eagle putt, eclipsing Bryson DeChambeau and Collin Morikawa by one shot.

Winning isn't uncommon for Wolff, who just recently captured the 2019 NCAA Division I individual championship, but despite knowing what it feels like to win on a smaller scale, his victory in Minnesota is a game-changer as far as his career goes. The 20-year-old arrived in Minnesota last Monday as the 1,659th-ranked player in the world but moved up a staggering 1,524 spots to his new ranking of 135th. Wolff has been widely regarded as one of the best young prospects to turn pro since Tiger Woods in 1996 and finding the winners circle in just his third career start will only help to heighten his mystique.

Our outright betting card provided a few close calls, but Troy Merritt (T7) and Lucas Glover (T7) were unable to catch Wolff on Sunday. On the season, we have now delivered 35 top-10 calls during this article and three victories at odds of 200/1, 66/1 and 10/1. It has been an exceptional gambling season all around, which includes our (15-8-2) head-to-head betting record for a net profit of 8.22 units. With the John Deere Classic on tap, let's dive a little deeper into some value plays we will be targeting at TPC Deere Run.

Editor's Note: Our friends at Fantasy National have built some incredible DFS Golf lineup tools including a Lineup Optimizer, Stat Engine, Ownership Projections and Course Breakdowns. They are by far the best daily fantasy Golf tools in the industry. Seriously. You can read all about them here and see screenshots.  Sign Up Now!

2019 John Deere Classic

For an in-depth breakdown of the top DraftKings and Fanduel plays, check out Joe Nicely's weekly Horse For The Course that highlights the best fits for the week's course.

To see who the RotoBaller staff is selecting in the weekly 'One and Done' contest, click here.

 

TPC Deere Run

7,268 Yards - Par 71 - Greens Bentgrass

With no disrespect meant towards Charles Howell III, you know it is going to be a weak event when the 55th-ranked American is your top player in the field. In fact, only 11 players inside the top-100 will be making the trip to TPC Deere Run, which can be explained by the majority of the world's best players either being at the Scottish Open or heading towards Northern Ireland for the Open Championship next week.

TPC Deere Run was designed by DA Weibring in 1999 and was redone by the PGA Tour in 2007. Measuring as a 7,268-yard Par 71, the venue is straightforward and features Bentgrass tees, fairways and greens. Seventy-eight bunkers and four water hazards come into play throughout the 18 holes, but all the water is easily avoidable.

Greens in regulation is a critical statistic this weekend because players will need to give themselves as many birdie opportunities as possible, and all par-fives are reachable for golfers that can provide a little extra oomph off the tee. The winning score typically is in the low-260s and will require four rounds in the 60s to capture the title. There is only one spot awarded for the Open Championship, and this is the last chance players will get to qualify.

John Deere Classic Best Bets

#1 Bud Cauley - 60/1

DK Price $8,700, FD Price $9,900

Projected DraftKings Ownership Percentage - 7.6%

The John Deere Classic has been the location for many first time winners on the PGA Tour over the years. Four of the past five victors of the event have had their maiden victory come at TPC Deere Run, including the likes of Bryson DeChambeau and Jordan Spieth. And while Bud Cauley isn't often thought of in the same breath as those two players, the 29-year-old has the potential to be a late bloomer in his career.

Cauley was a prestigious junior growing up, ranking number one in the world before deciding to attend the University of Alabama - where he is often regarded as one of the best players ever to attend the school. A three-time first-team All-American during his three years at the program, Cauley finished as a finalist for the Hogan Award every year, an award given to the best collegiate golfer. After turning pro, the Florida native became just one of 10 players since 1980 (Matthew Wolff became the latest of the 10 last weekend) to bypass Q-School and the finals of the Web.com en route to earning his tour card. However, for one reason or another, Cauley has had a difficult time putting it all together since becoming a professional golfer.

A car accident that broke his leg in 2018 can be added to the long list of setbacks that the 161st-ranked player in the world has had to endure, but Cauley appears to have found a little something as of late. Six made cuts in nine events, which includes a ninth-place showing at the Memorial in June, has the American slowly gravitating back towards entering the top-100 in the world. Cauley's game can be explosive when he is firing on all cylinders, and in an event where the "young guns" are supposed to steal the show, the former No. 1 junior in the world might be the one who plays spoiler to that party. Cauley's $8,700 price tag on DraftKings does show that his talent outweighs his ranking, and I believe most DFS players will ignore the Alabama product and pinpoint the other names in his price range. His 7.6% projected ownership makes him one of the best contrarian GPP options, and I consider him to be one of the better values on the board at 60/1.

#2 Talor Gooch - 70/1

DK Price $7,700 FD Price $9,000

Projected DraftKings Ownership Percentage - 8.3%

Talor Gooch's 2019 season has been quietly exceptional. Yes, the 27-year-old has missed five cuts in 13 events, but the upside of his finishes show a golfer that is inching towards his first victory. On the year, Gooch has posted five top-20 results, including back-to-back top-four finishes at the Desert Classic and Farmers Insurance Open earlier this season.

Those returns are extremely strong for a player who failed to make the weekend in 14 of his 23 starts on the PGA Tour last season, but it does appear as if the American has figured out something recently with his game. In his past 14 events, Gooch has earned between 2.3 and 9.7 strokes with his irons eight times, which should bode well at a course that is known for requiring quality second shots.

Priced at $7,700 on DraftKings, the 163rd-ranked player in the world is forecasted to be a contrarian option, even though his ownership projection is expected to hover around eight percent. Players such as Cameron Tringale, Vaughn Taylor, Troy Merritt and Peter Malnati are supposed to soak up the vast majority of the exposure between $7,500 to $7,900, leaving us in a position where we can grab Gooch lower-owned than he should be at the John Deere Classic.

#3 Sam Ryder - 80/1

DK Price $7,500, FD Price $8,900

Projected DraftKings Ownership Percentage - 13.8%

I won't lie, Sam Ryder feels like one of those options where everything is telling me to ignore the temptation. Unforntaltely, I am not strong-willed enough to leave him off the card. Perhaps it is because Ryder is the number one ranked player for my statistical model this week, or maybe it has to do with the fact that the American has the lowest scoring average at the John Deere Classic at 66.25. I'll go with it being a combination of both, but consider me hesitantly optimistic that Ryder will make me look sensible for backing him and not someone who is following the masses down the sewer.

I've had relatively solid luck when recommending the 196th-ranked player in the past. A solo third-place showing at the Shriners Open in my hometown of Las Vegas, Nevada would have provided an each-way winner for anyone who backed him at odds of 80/1, and this feels like a very similar situation for the 29-year-old to find success.

I could do without his hefty ownership projection of 13.8 percent on DraftKings, but that is a number that has been steadily dropping throughout the week, and I wouldn't be shocked if it closes closer to 10 percent by the time Thursday rolls around. I would keep an eye on his projection to make sure it doesn't see a sudden spike before his opening round, but I'd feel comfortable playing him in both GPP and cash-games if his ownership does happen to stay around 10-13 percent. As far as the outright market is concerned, 80/1 is an exceptional price to take a chance that Ryder can continue his top-notch form at TPC Deere Run, without having to worry about some of the volatility that comes into play on DFS sites.

#4 Matt Every - 110/1

DK Price $6,900, FD Price $8,500

Projected DraftKings Ownership Percentage - 2.7%

Wrapping up our concise card will be Matt Every at 110/1. Roger Sloan and Sepp Straka did come very close to getting added also, but I decided to keep things simple and save some money for next week's Open Championship. The John Deere Classic feels a little bit like a dart throw, and I'd prefer to keep things on the light side.

All things considered, Matt Every has been relatively consistent this season. After missing nearly 61 percent of his cuts between 2016-2018, the American has flipped that percentage upside down, making close to 61.5 percent of his cuts during the 2019 season. A small sample size of 13 events does somewhat negate his recent run, but it is a good sign that Every is beginning to show a little form.

From a statistical standpoint, the 228th-ranked player in the world has been brilliant. Ranked fourth compared to the field in birdie percentage, Every has often been undone by his propensity for his random blowup holes. TPC Deere Run isn't immune to a handful of mistakes, but the hope is that the venue doesn't have a ton of places to post big numbers, and the 35-year-old leads the field when it comes to scoring before the third round and proximity between 125-175 yards. With a price tag of $6,900 on DraftKings and 2.7 percent projected ownership percentage, Every is one of the best longshot values on the board and is someone that could go overlooked.

My Top 30 Ranked Golfers For The Week

Key Stats: 25% Strokes Gained Approach, 20% Proximity 125-175 Yards, 20% Par-Five Birdie or Better Percentage, 20% Birdie or Better Percentage and 15% GIR

50% Stats/30% Form/20% Course History


Head-to-Head Play of the Week

Talor Gooch +100 over Beau Hossler -120
Talor Gooch $7,700 price tag on DraftKings vs. Beau Hossler $7,300 price tag on DraftKings
Talor Gooch 7.8 percent projected ownership vs. Beau Hossler 2.2 percent projected ownership

1.25 Units to Win 1.25

After posting a share of 34th place during the 3M Open, Beau Hossler is grading out as the most overvalued golfer this weekend on my spreadsheet. Hossler has the skillset to compete at any event, but his form has taken a turn for the worse since the start of 2019. The American has failed to post a finish better than 34th place since February and is being priced in head-to-head matchups in the wrong range given his volatility.

I will give the sportsbooks credit for placing him against Talor Gooch and not Sam Ryder because I believe Gooch's combustibility is also quite evident, but as mentioned during my write-up for Gooch in the outright section, the 27-year-old is playing some of the best golf of his career and appears to be slightly underpriced for the event. My goal this weekend is to try and cut Hossler out of this tournament before Saturday begins, and while he always will possess upside to compete, the American should have an uphill climb to make it to the weekend. Good luck this weekend at the John Deere Classic, and hopefully we can find another winner!

2019 Head-to-Head Record (15-8-2)

+8.22 Units Year-To-Date From H2H Bets

Tournament

Head-to-Head Bet

Bet

My Picks Finish

Opponent Finish

Result

Total

Safeway Open

Sangmoon Bae +130 Over Chris Kirk

1.00 Units to Win 1.30

MC (+2)

MC (E)

Loss

-1.00

CIMB Classic

Kevin Na -120 over Kevin Tway

1.50 Units to Win 1.25

T19 (-17)

T27 (-13)

Win

1.25

CJ Cup

Paul Casey +100 over Marc Leishman

1.25 Units to Win 1.25

T18 (-8)

T18 (-8)

Push

0

WGC-HSBC

Thomas Pieters +120 over Kevin Na

1.00 Units to Win 1.20

T18 (-1)

T54 (+10)

Win

1.20

Shriners

Austin Cook +100 over Russell Henley

1.00 Units to Win 1.00

MC (+1)

MC (-1)

Loss

-1.00

Mayakoba

Kevin Chappell +100 over Charley Hoffman

1.25 Units to Win 1.25

T41 (-9)

MC (+2)

Win

1.25

RSM Classic

Patrick Rodgers -105 over Bronson Burgoon

1.05 Units to Win 1.00

2nd (-19)

MC (+2)

Win

1.00

Sony Open

Jimmy Walker -115 over Kevin Na

1.15 Units to Win 1.00

T51 (-6)

Did Not Start

Push

0

Desert Classic

Anders Albertson -110 over Anirban Lahiri

1.10 Units to Win 1.00

T34 (-14)

MC (-8)

Win

1.00

Farmers Insurance

J.B. Holmes +130 over Branden Grace

0.70 Units to Win 0.91

MC (+4)

MC (+3)

Loss

-0.70

Farmers Insurance

Jordan Spieth -110 over Alex Noren

1.10 Units to Win 1.00

T35 (-7)

MC (E)

Win

1.00

Waste Management

Ryan Palmer +105 over Kevin Tway

1.00 Units to Win 1.05

T60 (E)

MC (E)

Win

1.05

Genesis Open

Hideki Matsuyama -110 over Jordan Spieth

1.10 Units to Win 1.00

T9 (-7)

T51 (+1)

Win

1.00

Honda Classic

Zach Johnson -115 over Kiradech Aphibarnrat

1.43 Units to Win 1.25

T59 (+3)

MC (+10)

Win

1.25

Arnold Palmer

Chesson Hadley -110 over Chris Kirk

0.82 Units to win 0.75

T17 (-5)

T15 (-6)

Loss

-0.82

Players Championship

Tiger Woods +105 over Rickie Fowler

0.75 Units to win 0.79

T30 (-6)

T47 (-3)

Win

0.79

Valero Texas Open

Trey Mullinax -110 over Justin Harding

1.10 Units to Win 1.00

MDF (+1)

MC (+4)

Win

1.00

Masters

Bubba Watson -115 over Louis Oosthuizen

1.15 Units to Win 1.00

T12 (-8)

T29 (-4)

Win

1.00

Wells Fargo Championship

Joel Damen +120 over Chez Reavie

0.75 Units to win 0.90

2nd (-12)

T18 (-5)

Win

0.90

Byron Nelson

Trey Mullinax -105 over Brian Stuard

1.05 Units to Win 1.00

MC (+5)

T59 (-7)

Loss

-1.05

PGA Championship

Dylan Frittelli -105 over Cameron Champ

1.05 Units to Win 1.00

MC (+8)

T54 (+9)

Loss

-1.05

Memorial Tournament

Jason Kokrak -110 over Kyle Stanley

1.10 Units to Win 1.00

T62 (+3)

MC (+2)

Win

1.00

Canadian Open

Ollie Schniederjans -110 over Nick Taylor

1.10 Units to Win 1.00

MC (+1)

-6 (T27)

Loss

-1.10

U.S. Open

Tiger Woods +160 over Rory McIlroy

1.00 Units to Win 1.60

T21 (-2)

T9 (-5)

Loss

-1.00

3M Open

Lucas Glover +100 over Charley Hoffman

1.25 Units to Win 1.25

T7 (-16)

MC (E)

Win

1.25

2019 Outright Bets That Have Finished Inside the Top-10

Player

Event

Odds

Finish Position

Matt Kuchar

Mayakoba Golf Classic

66

1

Corey Conners

Valero Texas Open

200

1

Rory McIlroy

Canadian Open

10

1

Chesson Hadley

CIMB Classic

110

T2

Dustin Johnson

Masters

12

T2

Adam Scott

Memorial

33

2

Ryan Palmer

CJ Cup

150

T3

Sam Ryder

Shriners Hospitals

80

3

Chez Reavie

Sony Open

80

T3

Justin Thomas

Waste Management

10

3

Tommy Fleetwood

Arnold Palmer

35

T3

Rafa Cabrera-Bello

Arnold Palmer

60

T3

Scott Piercy

RBC Heritage

150

T3

Xander Schaufele

U.S. Open

28

T3

Lucas Glover

Honda Classic

60

T4

Brooks Koepka

Byron Nelson

7

T4

Jason Day

CJ Cup

13

T5

Sergio Garcia

WGC-Match Play

45

T5

Jason Day

Masters

40

T5

Marc Leishman

Memorial

66

5

Kevin Tway

Travelers

150

T5

Adam Hadwin

Canadian Open

70

6

Zach Johnson

RSM Classic

40

T7

Kevin Kisner

RSM Classic

40

T7

Troy Merritt

3M Open

175

T7

Lucas Glover

3M Open

90

T7

Webb Simpson

TOC

25

8

Jason Day

Players Championship

40

T8

Hideki Matsuyama

Players Championship

40

T8

Jason Day

Travelers

20

T8

J.B. Holmes

Safeway Open

60

9

Gary Woodland

Farmers Insurance

28

T9

Hideki Matsuyama

Genesis Open

30

T9

Shubankar Sharma

CIMB Classic

150

T10

Troy Merritt

RBC Heritage

250

T10

Golf DFS News and Player Outlooks


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