RADIO
Hey there, RotoBallers! Thanks for stopping by my PGA DFS strategy series that focuses on multi-entry GPP strategy for each specific golf tournament on the PGA Tour. If you haven't read any of my pieces yet, my name is Tommy Bell. I go by @BellRoto in the Twitter world, and I've been writing for RotoBaller since my college days back in 2013!
Our fantastic RotoBaller PGA team has pretty much every facet of golf DFS and betting covered, but this might one extra piece I can add to the mix to help put into words what I believe is the most profitable way to approach PGA DFS. That approach is simply max entering the multi-entry GPP tournaments. For context, I will be using DraftKings as my site of reference, and I will refer mainly to the $3 entry, 20-entry max tournament that they host each tournament. That being said, a lot of what I'll cover can be translated to use in lower or higher buy-in tournaments. It can also (with some tweaks) be used in a 50-entry or 150-entry max approach.
I understand everyone uses different lineup-building tools, and that's great! I'll be using our awesome lineup builder/optimizer tool here as reference. Each week I'll provide some reflection on last week's tournament, some generic thoughts on the upcoming approach to building multiple lineups, and lastly a quick peak at which players will make up my core for building GPP lineups this week. Let's get to it!
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Reflection: Last Week's Workday Charity Open
The short answer as to why I didn't do as well as I would've liked last week? Feast your eyes below on my exposure to Justin Rose, Benny An, Joel Dahmen, and Ryan Armour. Despite those busts, I had one 6-of-6 chance out of my 20 lineups still live going into Friday evening, but Luke List's brutally bad back nine quickly smothered that flame.
All-in-all, I had some good exposure to Top 10 players, and it got me about $25 of my $60 in entry fees back. I'll take that type of a return on an obviously bad week, as the reward on a good week will trump that loss all day long.
We kind of knew going in (and I admitted to it) that we'd be relying heavily on ball-strikers who tend to have difficulties around and on the greens. I thought we might be able to get away with that on a lite version of Jack's Place at Muirfield Village, but man were there still some penalizing features last week. I did not expect Dahmen and Rose to implode like they did. I definitely could've made a run at some good returns if my only big missed cuts were Armour and An. That's the risk we run in prioritizing approach numbers!
Approach: Memorial Tournament
There's not much need for a course breakdown this week, as I'm sure you've gotten a breakdown of this course about 12 different ways between last week and this week. The biggest thing we need to keep in mind is that wayward drives/irons will result in more difficult recovery with thicker, deeper rough. Also, the greens will be dried out and faster, making it tougher to hold the greens on approach shots, but also hindering bad putters who will have trouble reading and adjusting to the change from last week and recent tournaments.
Last note: Remember that the field is more difficult and smaller, meaning there's even more emphasis on getting 6-of-6 through in your lineups. Don't go crazy with guys who may not even have a tee time on Saturday, as any lineup they touch will be toast.
For a moment when I started building my player pool, I wasn't sure if I would "like" enough players to warrant building 20 lineups. I knew right off the bat that I was going to take a stand on Rory McIlroy, Tiger Woods, and Daniel Berger (more notes below). However, there wasn't anyone else in the upper echelon that I was thrilled to play. I also had trouble (at first) finding anyone below $7,400 that I was interested in including. I was admittedly still reserved in my thinking after too many missed cuts last week. After taking a step away and listening to a few staple podcasts in my weekly routine, the right player pool came together.
You'll see below that I have a pretty nice core of golfers that share between 40%-50% of exposure in my 20 lineups. I have some cheap guys as well who will help alleviate the cost of Rory in the 10 lineups that he's in. Then I have a couple of dart throw guys to round it out sitting at 25% or less, just because I knew I wanted some exposure to their upside. I feel really confident about this collection of lineups, and I think I've done a good job of only using players I trust, while maintaining a pretty high upside with my lineups. I'm going to be a littler shorter in my blurbs for the sub-$8.5k players, as there are five I wanted to mention this week. Let's do it!
Staples Over $8.5K: Memorial Tournament
Rory McIlroy: $10,700 - About 50%
Rory is still the best player in the world if you ask me. I know JT just showed us how good he can be for 3.5 rounds at this very course, and I know that Bryson is reinventing the game of golf as we know it, but this is still the kid that can drive it further and straighter than anyone, and has the irons and short game to back it up. I love the discount and (hopefully) the lower ownership than usual, and I think Rory will come out looking to make a statement at Jack's Place after being put on the back burner for the past month or so.
Tiger Woods: $9,000 - About 50%
Playing and betting on Tiger this week will be more of a feel thing than ever, simply because his recent stats are so lacking. What I do know is that he should be as healthy as ever coming off the long layoff, which we have seen him do successfully in the past. His course history here is something that everyone is aware of, and while it helps, it didn't factor in nearly as much as this last tidbit.
Tiger looked FANTASTIC at the charity event with Phil and the two NFL goofballs when he teed it up in May. He was flawless off the tee, hitting nearly every fairway, and his irons looked crisp. I would've loved to see a few more putts drop, but seeing him ball-strike like he was 30 years old again made me extremely excited to watch him play tournament golf again. So here we are. $9,000 on DK and 22/1 on the betting market is disrespectful. I'll be wearing my red polo on Sunday as a result.
Daniel Berger: $8,700 - About 50%
The one player who has impressed me the most since the return of the PGA Tour has been Daniel Berger. There was all of this noise being made before the break about him finally reaching his massive potential that we saw a few years ago, and while I was starting to believe it, I was 80% sure that long layoff would cool him down. NOPE!
Berger has been lights out in all facets of his game, winning the Charles Schwab Challenge in a playoff with Collin Morikawa and then casually making a run at the RBC Heritage where he logged a third place finish. Put that together with his pre-break tournaments, and the 27-year-old has four straight Top 5 finishes, and five straight Top 10 finishes. And he's the 16th most expensive player on DK this week? Huh?!?
Berger's long irons can hang, and his short game and putting have been spectacular of late. My only concern is his lack of experience at this course, having played it only twice, but he had played Harbour Town only twice before his T3 there as well. I'm done looking for reasons to doubt the Berger Man. I think this is the last time we see him below $9,000 for a very long time.
Staples Under $8.5K: Memorial Tournament
*Quick hitters coming, because there are five guys here and my article is getting lengthy... Find me on Twitter @BellRoto or in our RotoBaller Slack Channel if you have questions!*
Paul Casey: $7,900 - About 40%
Solid, consistent ball-striker who can scramble off the greens when needed. Casey should be able to find fairways often and make the cut with ease. Then we're hoping for the approach game to warm up over the weekend, and for him to make a run at the Top 10.
Joaquin Niemann: $7,900 - About 40%
Niemann's driving and iron play has been awesome since we've returned from the break. His short game and putting comes and goes, but I like that he has played this track well in his three appearances here (including last week). Young player with tons of upside, though he's probably the one of this group that I feel most worried can have a rough stretch of holes and miss the cut.
Kevin Streelman: $7,600 - About 40%
An absolute workhorse when it comes to Jack's Place. Streelman has not made the cut six straight times at Muirfield with three Top 10s. His approach game has been money the last two weeks, and his putting backed it up. Let's hope he adjusts quickly to the faster greens and logs another T15 or better for us.
Kevin Kisner: $7,500 - About 40%
Kiz got things figured out in a big way at the Rocket Mortgage Classic, and that makes me real excited to roster him at a discounted price here. Solid player off the tee and with irons who can limit mistakes, and then he can get hotter than anyone on tour with the putter. I love this price, and his 72/1 outright line.
Adam Hadwin: $7,400 - About 40%
I was on Hadwin at $8.2k when he fired a 6-under first round last week. You think I'm hopping off now? He struggled on Friday and Saturday, mostly off the tee, but got things right again on Sunday. Hadwin plays hard courses well, and I think he's a pretty safe bet to make the cut. Let's hope those Canadian irons get hot again for a few stretches.
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