RADIO
Hello golf fans, welcome back to Horse For The Course! Dustin Johnson took down the RBC Canadian Open at Glen Abbey in convincing fashion. I hope you read last week's edition, as he was our top rated Pony heading into the tournament. DJ could be included in this article almost every week (hint, hint, he won at Firestone in 2016), but I try to keep things interesting. This week we head to Akron, Ohio for the WGC Bridgestone Invitational. Like most of the WGC events, this one is totally stacked with elite-level talent and includes the top 50 players in the world. This will be the last hurrah for Firestone Country Club, a PGA host venue for over 50 years. Players are very familiar with the confines of Firestone and we have great course history to lean on this week.
One very important DFS note...this is a WGC event, so there is no 36-hole cut. Players will play all four rounds, unless there is a dreaded WD. These WGC events always remind me of the legendary Daniel Berger incident from a couple years ago, when he hit one shot off the tee in order to pick up his 50k paycheck and then withdrew, leaving some DFS players high and dry. Don't guess you can blame the guy for getting paid, but what a sick beat for those with Berger in their lineups that week. Anyway, we are thinking positive thoughts and hoping for a tournament free from those types of shenanigans this week. We will need players with winning potential that can rack up fantasy points in all four rounds. Let's dive in!
Horse For The Course will take a look at players that have traditionally flourished at the course that hosts this week’s PGA TOUR event. This is not a traditional picks column, but rather an attempt to pinpoint players that have outstanding results at a specific course. "The Horse" is a player with an elite course history and that has a great chance to repeat his success in this week's tournament. "The Ponies" are players with very good course history, that might be entering this week's tournament under the radar or have a DFS price that is a great value.
For a full review of the DraftKings PGA Slate this weekend, check out Seth Finklestein's column reviewing picks at every price point.
You can also find out who the smart money is on by checking out Spencer Aguiar's PGA DFS: Vegas Report every week.
Editor's Note: Our friends at Fantasy National have built some incredible DFS Golf lineup tools including a Lineup Optimizer, Stat Engine, Ownership Projections and Course Breakdowns. They are by far the best daily fantasy Golf tools in the industry. Seriously. You can read all about them here and see screenshots.
The Course: Firestone Country Club (South) - Par 70 - 7,400 Yards
Opened in 1929, Firestone Country Club was constructed by Harvey Firestone, the founder of Firestone Tire Company. Originally meant to be a perk for his employees, Firestone eventually entered the world of professional golf and has been connected with the PGA Tour for over 50 years. The club has hosted the WGC event since 1999. The classic layout features long and difficult par-4's, but is perhaps highlighted by the 600-plus yard par-5 16th hole that is has been dubbed "The Monster". Firestone is a difficult course, but players will be able to make some birdies this week and low scores are possible. Last year Hideki Matsuyama tied the course record with a final round 61 to take home the title. It's not a requirement to be a bomber to compete here, but we have seen long-hitters like DJ and Rory win this title and I believe players with distance do have an advantage this week.
The Horse
Tiger Woods (DraftKings - $10,800 & FanDuel - $11,300 )
Eight times. It's sounds ridiculous when you say it out loud, but Tiger Woods has won this tournament on this course an unbelievable EIGHT TIMES! If you are a believer in course history like I am, this should be Tiger's week to finally get back in the winner's circle. I won't bore you with Woods' stats at Firestone, just trust me when I say they are flat-out dominant. This is also the site of his last PGA Tour win in 2013.
This is a week that DFS players can take advantage of a perfect storm between course history and current form. As noted above, the course history doesn't get any better and Woods heads to Firestone in excellent form. He was soooo close to a win at The Open Championship two weeks ago, before settling for a T6. We also saw Tiger play well at the Quicken Loans National, logging a T4 to close out the month of June.
This is not simply a "nostalgia" pick (though I am a Tiger fan). Woods is absolutely striping his irons lately. He ranks third in Strokes Gained: Approach and sixth in SG: Tee to Green, skills that will be needed to succeed at Firestone. He is 10th in Scoring Average and a recent putter change seems to have him headed in the right direction on the greens. What we have yet to see from Tiger is a complete 72-hole effort. He has only been able to play well in spurts, usually with a huge mistake killing his round. I believe that his familiarity with Firestone will help him avoid the blowup holes this week.
Tiger's success at Firestone will get a lot of media attention in the lead up to the tournament this week. Unfortunately, this will only inflate his ownership. I expect him to be extremely popular in all formats this week. This is a problem that we run into frequently with players we expect to be popular. As I always advise, don't be afraid to use picks that you fear will be chalky, but make sure to differentiate your lineups in other spots. Leaving a few hundred dollars in salary on the table is a nice little trick to change things up.
The Ponies
Rickie Fowler (DK - $10,000 & FD - $11,300 )
It always makes me a little squeamish to recommend Rickie Fowler. He seems to be contractually obligated to do two things: wear orange on Sundays and make at least one triple-bogey every weekend. He always seems to struggle closing out tournaments. In short, I'm a huge fan of Rickie, but he doesn't find his way into my DFS lineups very often. Fowler might not be the greatest winner in the game, but I can't deny his record of success at Firestone. His performances over the last several years at the WGC-Bridgestone have forced me to make the fan favorite a Pony this week.
Fowler has reeled off an impressive string of finishes at Firestone. He has logged four consecutive Top-10's at the Bridgestone, going T8 in 2014, T10 in 2015, T10 in 2016, and ninth last year. As is often the case with Rickie, there are no wins on his Firestone resume, but that is quite a solid stretch of golf against WGC fields that are always stacked. Fowler's success at this venue can probably be tied to his elite ability on par 4's. He ranks sixth on the PGA Tour in par 4 scoring this year and should be able to take advantage of Firestone again this week.
Fowler should be an excellent pivot play this week. He has burned a lot of DFS bridges in both the U.S. Open and Open Championship, which I believe will push his ownership down a bit. Options priced above and below Fowler should be more tempting to the casual DFS player. Fire Rickie up in large-field GPP's as a semi-contrarian play.
Paul Casey (DK - $8,600 & FD - $10,800 )
Let's go from the rockstar Rickie Fowler to Paul "Old Faithful" Casey. The Englishman has been rock-solid at Firestone over the past three years. Casey logged a T17 in 2015, a T16 in 2016, and a Bridgestone career-best T5 finish last year.
Despite a disappointing performance in The Open Championship, Casey has been a machine in 2018. In what has arguably been his best season as a professional, he picked up a win at the Valspar and let another win slip away at the Travelers. Casey plays well at tough courses against difficult fields, logging top-20 finishes at the Masters, the U.S. Open, and BMW PGA Championship.
I love Casey's DraftKings price of $8,600. He is a great place to start lineups this week and should be a cash-game anchor, as well as a nice GPP play with upside. Casey will be popular, but I'm willing to swallow the ownership in exchange for the consistency that he brings to the table.
Zach Johnson (DK - $8,100 & FD - $9,800)
If I have learned one thing from doing this article, it's that Zach Johnson has quietly had an unbelievably successful career. It seems like his name pops up almost every week when researching course history. It is quite remarkable that the short-hitter from Iowa has been able to flourish on so many different types of courses. He is a little against type, when it comes to the sort of players we are targeting this week, but it's hard to argue with Johnson's results in the WGC-Bridgestone.
Johnson has had tremendous success at Firestone over the years. ZJ notched a T11 way back in 2007 and has been very consistent since, including a T6 in 2011, a T4 in 2013, a T10 in 2016, and a solo second last year. Johnson has continuously put himself in the mix in tournaments this year and seems primed for a win. Since a T12 at the U.S. Open, Johnson has reeled off three consecutive top-20 finishes.
Zach's $8,100 DK price is very reasonable, but the best value on him can be found at FanDuel, where he is priced below guys like Matt Kuchar and Phil Mickelson. I concentrate the majority of my play on DraftKings, but I will be going out of my way to build some ZJ-centric lineups on FanDuel this week.
Thorbjorn Oleson (DK - $7,500 & FD - $8,100)
Let me throw a little curveball at you with my last selection of the week. Normally it takes more than one course appearance to make this list, but I'm willing to make an exception for Thorbjorn Oleson in this case. The young man from Denmark is a Euro Tour regular and has only played in America once this year, missing the cut at the U.S. Open. Oleson did cross the pond to play the WGC-Bridgestone in 2017, when he nabbed a T10 by improving his scoring everyday, capping off the week with a final round 65.
This dude is the definition of "boom or bust" and his exactly the type of player we love to target in large-field GPPs. Check out Oleson's results over his past six tournaments: Win-MC-T2-MC-T6-T12. The beauty this week is that we gain all that pure upside with no danger of a missed cut. In these WGC events with no cut, it is very important from a DFS perspective to rack up fantasy points. In both his win at the Italian Open and his T2 at the BMW International, Oleson racked up 24 birdies per tournament!
Oleson isn't very well known in the U.S. and offers a wonderful way to differentiate lineups this week. I love his price, upside, and expected low ownership. He is very affordable on DKings and almost criminally underpriced at just $8,100 on FD. Don't be afraid to pair Oleson up with Tiger Woods in GPP lineups this week. He's a perfect play for those that multi-enter tourneys. Great sleeper potential!
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