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Welcome to the third edition of the PGA DFS Hole-By-Hole Breakdown, where Josh Bennett (@JishSwish) breaks down the course the PGA Tour is playing each week. We think this course breakdown is an important slice of the "PGA DFS pie" and will help change the way you do your research for every tournament. A good understanding of the course that's being played is extremely important before diving into individual players. Each week, this article will give you everything you need to know about the course, strategies players could take, and statistics that fit the specifics of the layout.
This week's Breakdown features TPC Scottsdale (Stadium Course) for the Waste Management Phoenix Open on the PGA Tour. Nicknamed "The People's Open" and "The Greatest Show on Grass", this tournament is more known for its party-like atmosphere than anything else. While other tournaments and courses try to change the game by adding bunkers, lengthening holes, growing the rough, etc., the WMPO changes things up by getting as many people as they can packed into one event and being as loud as possible. The course itself has several challenging holes, so combining a unique atmosphere with a course that will offer a moderate test to the players makes for an exciting weekend of golf. Be sure to also read all of our other top-notch weekly PGA DFS and betting articles to help you win big!
TPC Scottsdale: Par 71, 7261 Yards
Hole 1: Par 4, 403 Yards
Scoring Avg: 3.9
Difficulty: Course - 14th, 2019 PGA Events - 584th
Off the Tee: There's not a ton of space off the tee leading off the tournament, and instead of risking a bad miss to start the tournament, there will be many that tee off with something other than a driver, with the goal being to land just short of where the bunker is on the left. The hole isn't very long, so even laying up off the tee will still leave a wedge into the green.
Approach: A wedge for most of the field to a 20x40yd green with no protection. This is the only hole on the course that doesn't have a green-side bunker. As long as they keep the ball in the fairway off the tee, this is a scoring hole for the entire field to start off the event.
Advantage: SG: Approach, Par 4 Scoring
Hole 2: Par 4, 442 Yards
Scoring Avg: 4.16
Difficulty: Course – 3rd, 2019 PGA Events – 133rd
Off the Tee: Like the last hole, there isn't a ton of space off the tee here, but the hole is much longer which will force driver into most players' hands. This is exactly what makes this hole the third hardest on the course, because now the wastelands on both sides are potentially in play, as is the large fairway bunker. The first bunker can be cleared at about 290 yards so bombers can get it down there close without having to worry about bunker issues, but the rest will have to hit it straight to be safe.
Approach: A short iron approach or potentially a wedge for long hitters to a 20x30yd green. This is one of the smaller greens on the course and is protected by bunkers on all sides except the back. Those using wedges shouldn't have to worry about them much, but longer approaches (especially from the bunker or wasteland) will risk ending up in one of those bunkers.
Advantage: Driving Distance, Ball-Striking
Hole 3: Par 5, 558 Yards
Scoring Avg: 4.55
Difficulty: Course – 17th, 2019 PGA Events – 774th
Off the Tee: The first of the three par 5's, and all are medium length like this one. Unless they really get ahold of one and miss it left, there's not much trouble off the tee. They'll be free to let driver rip as far as possible to get the closest approach possible.
Approach: The green should be reachable with a fairway wood or long iron for most of the field, but they have to be careful to not miss short or left. The green is 20x40yds, and only has one bunker protecting the front of the green. It also has a waste area that cuts the fairway off and cuts across the left side of the green, acting as additional protection to the green. The green is large enough to hold a fairway wood, but even a miss a little long should leave an easy up-and-down for birdie, assuming they'll use the waste area and bunkers towards the front of the green as protection for pin placements.
Advantage: Driving Distance, Ball-Striking, SG: Around the Green, Par 5 Scoring
Hole 4: Par 3, 183 Yards
Scoring Avg: 3.03
Difficulty: Course – 9th, 2019 PGA Events – 370th
Approach: A medium-length approach to another one of the smaller greens on the course, which is 20x30yds. This isn't a short approach and the green is just average in size, so depending on where the pins are, all three of the bunkers could potentially be in play. A GIR here is good enough for a putt at a birdie, keep it out of the bunkers and make sure par is the worst score and move on.
Advantage: SG: Approach, GIR
Hole 5: Par 4, 470 Yards
Scoring Avg: 4.15
Difficulty: Course – 4th, 2019 PGA Events – 147th
Off the Tee: Five holes in and a theme off-the-tee is beginning to form. The hole is long enough to force driver into the players' hands, and then trouble is in play with waste areas on both sides and a fairway bunker in the landing area for all players. Long and straight is what will be successful here. Since the fairway is cut off close to the green, a tee shot in the fairway bunker may even require a short layup before the fairway breaks and then the goal is to get out of there with a bogey.
Approach: Another medium-length approach to a 35x30yd green only protected by a bunker on the left side of the green. That bunker will be in play if the pins are on that side of the green, otherwise, those that avoid all the trouble off the tee will be able to take on pins and score on this hole.
Advantage: Driving Accuracy, Ball-Striking, SG: Approach, Scrambling
Hole 6: Par 4, 432 Yards
Scoring Avg: 4.08
Difficulty: Course – 5th, 2019 PGA Events – 274th
Off the Tee: From one difficult hole to the next, and a similar story to the last hole although it's much shorter. Fairway bunkers are in the way for everyone on both sides, and the fairway width is even smaller than the last hole. Keeping it out of the bunkers is key to scoring on this hole, although they're less penal on this hole compared to the last because of the length.
Approach: A short-iron approach to a long 20x40yd green. It's a longer approach if the pin goes in the back corner of the green and makes the hole very difficult with a large bunker protecting the left side and not much space on the green to work with. There's another bunker all the way on the right side, but it shouldn't be in play with a pin there because of how short the approaches would be from there. Any pin that isn't in the back corner will be score-able, assuming the drive didn't wind up in the fairway bunkers.
Advantage: Driving Accuracy, SG: Approach, Par 4 Scoring
Hole 7: Par 3, 215 Yards
Scoring Avg: 2.98
Difficulty: Course – 11th, 2019 PGA Events – 457th
Approach: The only long par 3 on the course, hit at a 25x30yd green. A large bunker protects the entire left side and there's another smaller one on the right side. Pins towards the back of the green where it's wider should see more scoring, but any pin in the front makes the hole much harder because both bunkers are likely in play because of dispersion with longer irons, even when aiming at the center of the green.
Advantage: GIR
Hole 8: Par 4, 475 Yards
Scoring Avg: 4.06
Difficulty: Course – 7th, 2019 PGA Events – 311th
Off the Tee: Once again, a tee shot on a long par 4 with wasteland trouble on both sides and fairway bunkers in play. The first bunker will be in play for the average and shorter hitters, the second bunker will be in play for the longer hitters. Straight and long again off this tee is key.
Approach: A medium length approach to another 20x40yd green. Seems like the size of the greens are all pretty similar even with different shapes. Only one bunker protecting this one on the right side. Long and accurate hitters will have good scoring chances on pins away from the right side. Otherwise, the hole will be tough and par is a good score for everyone.
Advantage: Driving Accuracy, Ball-Striking, Proximity to Hole
Hole 9: Par 4, 453 Yards
Scoring Avg: 4.06
Difficulty: Course – 6th, 2019 PGA Events – 310th
Off the Tee: Another medium length par 4, this one has much more space between the waste areas, but still has fairway bunker problems for the whole field. Same old story here; hit it straight and long away from the bunker and get a good look at the green to score.
Approach: A medium-length approach to a wide 40x20yd green, which is a new look thus far. Most previous greens were either round or long, this one is wide and will require good distance control. A miss short could wind up in a fairway bunker and the green is short enough that a little miss long could wind up off the green too. There's a bunker on the far right side, but that's only in play when they set pins over there.
Advantage: Driving Accuracy, Ball-Striking, SG: Approach
Hole 10: Par 4, 428 Yards
Scoring Avg: 3.97
Difficulty: Course – 12th, 2019 PGA Events – 477th
Off the Tee: One of the first tee shots we'll see the players' risk appetite come into play. The bunker on the right is massive, but depending on length can be taken out of play. This isn't a long hole by any means and will play much shorter because of the dog-leg so laying up off the tee can work as well as trying to cut the corner as much as possible. No matter the decision, keeping it out of the bunker is priority A, B, and C, this hole becomes a scoring hole when that's done.
Approach: Nothing more than a wedge for most into a 20x35yd green. Bunkers protect the front-left and front-right sides of the green, but hitting wedges should mean they are less in play than they would be if this was a longer hole. Spin a wedge in close (from the fairway) and get a birdie to get some cushion heading into one of the harder holes on tour.
Advantage: SG: Approach, Proximity to Hole, Par 4 Scoring
Hole 11: Par 4, 472 Yards
Scoring Avg: 4.20
Difficulty: Course – 2nd, 2019 PGA Events – 78th
Off the Tee: Another longer par 4 with trouble, but this time instead of waste areas and fairway bunkers for problems they substituted in water. Straight and long is the key again here. Length obviously cuts off a lot more of this longer approach but it doesn't matter if it's long and in the water.
Approach: A long-iron approach to a 30x30yd green protected by a large bunker in front and a small bunker that will grab any long miss. In addition to the bunkers, any miss that goes too far left will be in the same water that they have to avoid off the tee. Keep it right on this hole at all times and be happy walking away with par.
Advantage: Ball-Striking, SG: Approach
Hole 12: Par 3, 192 Yards
Scoring Avg: 3.02
Difficulty: Course – 10th, 2019 PGA Events – 389th
Approach: A long approach to a long 20x40yd green that has both water and bunker issues. There are no good bailout areas unless they decide to intentionally miss short of the green, so the strategy to this hole is to just hit a long iron at the middle of this green and deal with what's left from there. Take a birdie if it's there, otherwise take a par heading into the easiest hole on the course.
Advantage: GIR
Hole 13: Par 5, 558 Yards
Scoring Avg: 4.52
Difficulty: Course – 18th, 2019 PGA Events – 784th
Off the Tee: The tee shot here like most other holes is most benefited by being both straight and long (isn't every hole everywhere?), but as long as it doesn't find the water on the right, a miss of the fairway will be okay since many will opt to lay up on the approach anyway.
Approach: Some will grab fairway woods and take this green on, others will lay up short of the bunker in the front and take a short wedge to this large 4ox25yd green. If they're taking the green on in two they have to be sure to go long, because the bunker in the front is deep and difficult to get out of. Stay out of that bunker and this is a birdie hole for the whole field.
Advantage: Driving Distance, Ball-Striking, Proximity to Hole, Par 5 Scoring
Hole 14: Par 4, 490 Yards
Scoring Avg: 4.24
Difficulty: Course – 1st, 2019 PGA Events – 45th
Off the Tee: From worst to first, the most difficult hole on the course, and in the top 50 in difficulty on tour last year. Oddly enough, it doesn't even follow the typical theme that's made other holes on this course difficult. Waste areas are far enough on either side that they won't really be in play, and the only fairway bunker is only there for looks because of how close to the tee boxes it is. If it was there to "force" players to use driver, they were going to have to use driver anyway because it's almost a 500-yard par 4. Length is important on this hole, straight is helpful but there's no real problem in the rough unless it's grown out and penal.
Approach: A very long approach to another long 15x35yd green. Like the previous par 3, because of the distance and the width of this green, the target to this green should be the middle of the green to get the best chance at keeping the ball on the green and having some kind of look at birdie. The bunkers on the left side are in play for all approaches and will probably be played out of often. Par is a very good score on this hole.
Advantage: Driving Distance, GIR, Scrambling
Hole 15: Par 5, 553 Yards
Scoring Avg: 4.86
Difficulty: Course – 15th, 2019 PGA Events – 624th
Off the Tee: Water issues off the tee on the left side are back on the last par 5. They'll need to keep it right off this tee no matter what because this is a birdie hole without a need to go for the green in two, although many longer hitters will give it a go with longer irons.
Approach: Some will opt to take this green on in two with a long iron or fairway wood, but many will lay up short no matter the result off the tee and take a short wedge into the 20x35yd island green. Water is obviously the main protection surrounding the green, but there are some bunkers on that island too that are in play for the long approaches and not really in play from those taking wedges in for their third shots. Either way, keep it out of the water and it's a birdie hole.
Advantage: Driving Distance, SG: Approach, Par 5 Scoring
Hole 16: Par 3, 163 Yards
Scoring Avg: 2.97
Difficulty: Course – 13th, 2019 PGA Events – 478th
Approach: The crowd gets frustrated with any missed green or putt here, but it's understandable to miss given the size of the green at 15x35yds. The green is long for the length of the hole but it's not wide, so all four of the bunkers are in play on every approach and some that hit the green can have some very long putts. Add in the atmosphere and crowd noise and things get even more difficult. It's cool to hit it close and have the crowd go nuts, but the main strategy here may be to just go at the middle of the green and protect par.
Advantage: SG: Approach, GIR, Par 3 Scoring
Hole 17: Par 4, 332 Yards
Scoring Avg: 3.74
Difficulty: Course – 16th, 2019 PGA Events – 698th
Off the Tee: The tee shot on this hole might be even more exciting to watch than the last. This hole is reachable off the tee, but as you can see in the image, a miss longer than average to the left is going to find the water. Laying up off the tee has to be extremely accurate as well because of all the bunkers that are in the way. No matter what the choice is off the tee, there's some kind of trouble, which makes it exciting to watch and all that more impressive when they pull off the shot.
Approach: We will see all kinds of approaches (and putts) after this tee shot to a huge 30x45yd green. The defense of this hole is only really off the tee, so if the tee shot is in play they'll be able to go right at any pin on this green with a short pitch or putt. This is a birdie hole for the field, given trouble is avoided off the tee.
Advantage: Ball-Striking, Par 4 Scoring
Hole 18: Par 4, 442 Yards
Scoring Avg: 4.04
Difficulty: Course – 8th, 2019 PGA Events – 346th
Off the Tee: Distance off this tee is important so that the water is out of play. The long hitters will go over the water and then deal with the bunkers if they end up in them, but it's a much better place to be than in the water. The fairway is very narrow so it will be hard to hit no matter what. Shorter hitters will have to go out right and bring a different set of fairway bunkers in that are much farther away and more penal.
Approach: Long hitters will have short approaches, likely with wedges, to a 20x30yd green. Shorter hitters will have mid to short-irons in. There's a very small bunker on the left side and a much larger bunker on the front-right. Not many fairways will be found here, so the approaches likely won't be fired at pins (except for late on Sundays) and will be more towards the middle to protect par. Due to all the potential trouble off this tee, there will be some fireworks coming down the stretch on Sunday.
Advantage: Driving Distance, Ball-Striking, GIR
Conclusions
The course is set up off the tee to test these guys pretty equally in both Driving Distance and Driving Accuracy, which is why we see guys like Woodland and Koepka do well, as well as guys like Kuchar. A stat I like that takes both of these into account (along with some approach stats) is Ball-Striking. Long AND straight is the key to success this week.
Regardless of what path is taken off the tee, long or short, good iron play is important, especially from mid and long distances. Shots Gained: Approach and Proximity to Hole are stats to watch out for. Greens in Regulation will be talked about, however, the greens are large so those that hit greens often but are bad putters could get themselves in trouble with three putts.
There are only three par 5's, but all are reachable and need to be taken advantage of. They are the only holes that play significantly under par. The rest of the holes play close to par or harder, so take what they can get in terms of Par 4 Scoring and get Birdies on Par 5's.
Other stats to consider: Approaches 175-200, Shots Gained: Off the Tee, Bogey Avoidance
Assumptions
Images and measurements were done on Google Earth. These satellite images can sometimes be up to 5 or more years old and not show very recent changes to courses if there were any.
Carry distance is used for off-the-tee distances shown in the images. The average carry distance on tour in 2019 was 281 yards, so that was the distance used here.
I used a total dispersion off-the-tee of 60 yards. This comes from an article that Jon Sherman wrote for Practical Golf (@practicalgolf) discussing average dispersion, and I took 5-10 yards off from that number.
I assumed a 10-15 yard roll out from the carry distance to start the measurement to the green. Measurements to the green were rounded to the nearest 5 yards and measured from the center of the fairway to the center of the green.
Green measurements were also measured to the nearest 5 yards.
Things like weather, large elevation changes, rough length, etc. are not taken into consideration on the measurements. I can only see and assume so much from satellite images. However, I do note where possible on each hole if things like elevation and wind could impact how the hole plays.
Scorecard:
