RADIO
PGA Premium Tools can be accessed on the premium dashboard.
Welcome to the latest edition of the PGA DFS Hole-By-Hole Breakdown, where Josh Bennett (@JishSwish) breaks down the course the PGA Tour is playing each week. We think this course breakdown is an important slice of the "PGA DFS pie" and will help change the way you do your research for every tournament. A good understanding of the course that's being played is extremely important before diving into individual players. Each week, this article will give you everything you need to know about the course, strategies players could take, and statistics that fit the specifics of the layout.
This week features Wai'alae Country Club in Hawaii for the Sony Open on the PGA Tour. This is one of the few courses on Tour that will not favor a bomber. Fairways off the tee will be important to scoring (or keeping bad scores away). Be sure to also read all of our other top-notch weekly PGA DFS and betting articles to help you win big!
Wai'alae Country Club: Par: 70,Yards: 7044, Greens: Bermuda, Architect: Seth Raynor
Hole 1: Par 4, 480 Yards
Off the Tee: The tournament starts with a pretty difficult hole that requires both distance and accuracy for a decent shot at the green. The fairway is small and the hole is long, so there won't be any layups off this tee (especially with a fairway bunker in play). Trees could be in the way on approach if the tee shot goes too far off-line on either side as well. There is another tee box behind where the measured yardage is too that could increase difficulty. Long and straight to start is the key.
Approach: A mid-long iron approach that hopefully isn't blocked out by trees to a green guarded by bunkers in the front and back. Since they'll be coming into this green with longer irons, dispersion will bring both bunkers into play on most pin locations. They should be aiming for the middle of the green on this hole and making sure they don't start the tournament off with anything worse than a par. Green Size: 30x20 Yards
Advantage: Ball-Striking, SG: Around the Green, Bogey Avoidance
Hole 2: Par 4, 423 Yards
Off the Tee: Water left and bunkers right of a tiny fairway make this hole a hole that most will lay up on. There's too much risk on both sides to give this a go with the driver, so we should see most of the field landing their tee shots short of the first bunker at about 270 yards and playing the second shot from there.
Approach: The whole field should have an approach between 155-165 yards. There's a large bunker in the front of the green that will be in play on any front pins. If the pins get moved off the front, this hole becomes a scoring hole with these guys hitting short irons into the green. Green Size: 35x20 Yards
Advantage: SG: Approach, Approach 150-175, Par 4 Scoring
Hole 3: Par 4, 422 Yards
Off the Tee: This is an almost identical hole to the last one, just on the other side of the lake. The lake has to be taken out of play again, but what makes this hole different is there's not as much trouble on the right side. We may see some of the really long and/or wild hitters still lay up off the tee, but we should see a bunch more drivers hit knowing they can miss a little right and still be safe.
Approach: If they lay up off the tee, the approach should be similar to the last hole. With a driver, they'll be able to get it within wedge range. Two bunkers on the front left and right sides of the green give a little opening for shots to run up the green if necessary from a long way away, and there's one smaller bunker protecting the back of the green. Pin locations will probably be somewhere near one of those three bunkers on all four rounds to keep scoring down, especially if they are all hitting driver to a wedge. Green Size: 25x25 Yards
Advantage: Driving Accuracy, Ball-Striking, SG: Approach, Par 4 Scoring
Hole 4: Par 3, 204 Yards
Approach: The scorecard indicates that this is a long hole, but due to the green size and potential pin locations this hole really can play anywhere between an average length of 175 yards or a really long 230 yards. The green is long but it isn't wide. With bunkers lining the length of the green on both sides, they should opt to play to the middle of this green. By doing that, distance control will be a big key, since a miss short or long could leave 40-50 YARDS worth of green between the player and the hole. 3 putts could be common on this hole. Green Size: 20x55 Yards
Advantage: GIR, 3 Putt Avoidance
Hole 5: Par 4, 467 Yards
Off the Tee: The fairway on this hole is split into three sections, and the first ditch that splits the fairway pretty much forces everyone's hand to hit the driver off this tee. It's a little over 220 yards to carry the first ditch, so laying up is an unlikely option given that any kind of miss-hit probably lands in that ditch. The fairway is small but there should be enough room even if the fairway is missed to still have a shot at the green.
Approach: The second split of the fairway really makes no difference to this hole, it should be easily carried no matter where the ball lands from the tee behind it and it's 50 yards from the front edge of the green so it won't be in play on the approach either. Trouble does come into play around the green though with three bunkers protecting it. They should be playing mid-irons into this green, so well-placed pins will bring the bunkers into play. Since the bunkers are all mostly on the front portion of the green, pins will be located there, so they may choose to error long on this hole. A miss long takes all bunkers out of play and leaves a chip back onto the green with a lot of green to work with. Green Size: 35x20 Yards
Advantage: Driving Accuracy, Ball-Striking, SG: Approach
Hole 6: Par 4, 460 Yards
Off the Tee: The tee shot off number 6 again is narrow like many of the others. Being long and accurate on this hole will lead to a distinct advantage. The average carry length on tour in the image shows that the fairway bunker is in play and both sides have tree trouble. If they can bomb it over the bunker, they're in prime position for a shorter approach. If they are shorter hitters, they're going to have to stay behind the bunker and play a long approach in, which is less than ideal with the large bunker in front of the green.
Approach: Depending on if the ball is played from in front of or behind the bunker, a mid or long iron will be hit into this green, but it is "L" shaped so it plays much smaller than the measurements. A large bunker guards the front and creates the "L" shape of the green. High-trajectory shots from long distances will be key to keeping the ball on this green, giving another little advantage to the bombers who will hit more lofted clubs. No surprise that this is the second hardest hole on the course. Green Size: 30x25 Yards
Advantage: Ball-Striking, SG: Off the Tee, Driving Distance, Scrambling
Hole 7: Par 3, 176 Yards
Approach: Hitting the green should be no problem on this huge green. However, if they do happen to miss it, they'll more than likely be playing out of one of the bunkers that surround the green. It's long enough that they can't put a wedge-like spin on these to get to every pin, but it's also short enough that the green should be relatively easy to hit each round. Green Size: 40x30 Yards
Advantage: GIR, SG: Approach, Par 3 Scoring
Hole 8: Par 4, 454 Yards
Off the Tee: A cool-looking tee shot through a tunnel of trees that isn't so cool after it gets out of the trees. An average-length player will need to turn the ball right-to-left or it will end up in one of the fairway bunkers with the driver. We may see some layups off the tee with fairway woods to make sure the ball doesn't make it to the bunkers.
Approach: As long as the drive avoids the sand, nothing more than 160 yards into another long green. Bunkers again are on the front portion of the green on both the left and right sides. One or the other will probably be in play for all the pin locations. Similar to the 5th hole, they may error long on this hole which will be safe from the sand, and leave a chip back with a lot of green to work with. Green Size: 20x35 Yards
Advantage: Driving Accuracy, Ball-Striking, SG: Approach, Scrambling
Hole 9: Par 5, 506 Yards
Off the Tee: Finally, to the first of the two par 5's and the easiest hole on the course. Enjoy this one because there isn't another one until the last hole of the round. It's short for a par 5 but the tee shot has to be pretty straight. Out-of-bounds lines both sides with errant tee shots and there's also a large fairway bunker on the left side. The bunker can be cleared by the long hitters and should be avoidable by the accurate short hitters. For those that are really wild off the tee, a layup isn't a bad idea either given how short this hole is. The green can be reached by everyone in the field as long as the ball is kept in play.
Approach: A short approach for PGA Tour par 5 standards to a green guarded by two bunkers in the front on the left and right sides. Long is no good on this approach unless playing from underneath a car tire in the parking lot sounds fun, so we will see a lot of misses into those bunkers as laying up doesn't make much sense with how short this hole is. Even if the green is missed, a good short game or bunker game should give up quite a few birdies here. Green Size: 30x30 Yards
Advantage: Ball-Striking, SG: Around the Green, Par 5 Scoring
Hole 10: Par 4, 351 Yards
Off the Tee: The back nine starts with the first short hole on the course and it should be an easy one if they can keep the ball straight off the tee. The fairway isn't wide enough to hold inaccurate tee shots, and the bombers will have to risk the right side with the driver to avoid the bunker up near the green on the left. Those confident with the driver can let it rip and have a short pitch to the green. We could also see a handful of the field hitting less than the driver and still having a wedge to the green.
Approach: Assuming the driver is hit, all that's left is under 100 yards to a square-looking green. The only protection is on the front right and really shouldn't be in play at all given that the whole field will be hitting wedges and probably not even full swings with them to the green. There should be lots of scoring on this hole by those that can hit it straight off the tee. Green Size: 20x35 Yards
Advantage: Driving Accuracy, Ball-Striking, SG: Approach, Par 4 Scoring
Hole 11: Par 3, 194 Yards
Approach: Another relatively long par 3 playing to one of the smaller greens on the course. A large bunker on the left guards the whole left side of the green and there's a small bunker on the front right. They should just do their best to knock it on somewhere toward the middle of the green and get their par and move on, given the size of the green. The par 3's are not easy on this course, especially this one. They should take their pars and look for scoring elsewhere. Green Size: 20x25 Yards
Advantage: GIR
Hole 12: Par 4, 440 Yards
Off the Tee: The back nine is home to some of the easier holes on the course, this being one of them. Again, the fairway isn't very wide, but there's room to miss on both sides this time unlike much of the rest of the course, which is why this hole plays easier than the others. Long hitters may find trouble with the far bunker on the left, but they really have to crush it to get there.
Approach: Some may get wedges into this green and the rest will have short irons. They do have bunkers on both sides towards the middle, but they shouldn't be too much in play with wedges in hand. This should be a scoring hole for most of the field. Green Size: 20x25 Yards
Advantage: Ball-Striking, SG: Approach, Par 4 Scoring
Hole 13: Par 4, 477 Yards
Off the Tee: A long hole that could be made longer since the measured distance doesn't make it all the way back to the back of the tee box. Another hole that has trouble with misses off the tee both left and right. If they want any chance at getting this ball on the green it has to be right down the middle of the tiny fairway. The green will be very hard to hit from the bunker or the rough, especially with the trees in the way. Straight is key on this hole.
Approach: Assuming the ball is in the fairway, they'll get approaches with long irons into this green. Larger bunkers again protect the left and right sides and another bunker is towards the front of the green. All of these bunkers will be in play due to the length of the approach. Hitting a green in regulation with a two-putt will be a great score on one of the harder holes on tour. Green Size: 25x30 Yards
Advantage: Driving Accuracy, Ball-Striking, GIR, Scrambling
Hole 14: Par 4, 430 Yards
Off the Tee: This dogleg left will be tough even if they have a natural right-to-left curve to their swing. Overcooking it even slightly could wind up in the bunker, and not turning it over almost surely winds up through the fairway and into the rough or trees. This hole plays shorter than it's measured though, so we could see some of the field lay up to ensure a fairway and then take a mid-iron in from there.
Approach: The approach is less difficult than the tee shot. Once again, bunkers are on both sides and towards the front of this green. The bunkers may be in play on tucked pins, but short clubs into this hole make those less of a problem than previous holes. Hit it in the fairway and birdie is a good possibility. Green Size: 20x35 Yards
Advantage: Driving Accuracy, SG: Approach, Par 4 Scoring
Hole 15: Par 4, 398 Yards
Off the Tee: This is a short par 4, but if any hole has made it obvious so far that they didn't want the bombers to have a distinct advantage on this course it's this one. It would be a surprise to see anyone hit the driver on this hole because of how narrow it is the farther down the fairway it gets. Plus, the hole is so short that any fairway-finder club will still leave some type of wedge into the green.
Approach: The whole field should be hitting a wedge into this green. Another large bunker towards the front of the green and two towards the back protect the green from missed wedges, but in general, it shouldn't be much of a problem because of how close they're hitting from. There should be a good amount of birdies on this hole. Green Size: 20x30 Yards
Advantage: SG: Approach, Par 4 Scoring
Hole 16: Par 4, 417 Yards
Off the Tee: We're through 16 holes and the theme off the tee has been mostly the same and this hole is no different. Small fairway, plus bunkers, trees, and out-of-bounds all in play. Another right-to-left tee shot is ideal and will leave a short approach into this hole. Some of the field may also choose to lay up behind that first bunker leaving a mid-iron approach into a difficult green. No matter what they choose, the fairway has to be hit to have a shot at the green.
Approach: A drive hit around the corner could leave a wedge in, and others could have over 160 yards in. Speaking of themes throughout the course, here we again have bunkers that line both the left and right sides of the green. An approach from a longer distance will be forced to be toward the center of the green to avoid all the bunkers. A player that bends their tee shot around the corner will be rewarded with a wedge into this green and be able to go after almost any pin. Risk appetite will be tested throughout this hole. Green Size: 15x35 Yards
Advantage: Driving Accuracy, Ball-Striking, SG: Approach
Hole 17: Par 3, 194 Yards
Approach: The third par 3 that plays over 190 yards and it's not any easier than the other two. The green is a little diagonal to the players which should entice a right-to-left ball flight. Three bunkers on the right cover the whole right side and one large one on the left covers almost the whole left side will likely have players firing at the center of the green again and taking what's left from there. As was mentioned on the previous par 3, this is not where the scoring on the course comes from, they should be happy heading into the last hole not having dropped any strokes. Green Size: 15x35 Yards
Advantage: GIR, Scrambling
Hole 18: Par 5, 551 Yards
Off the Tee: No surprise here, trees and bunkers are lurking on the final tee shot, but as long as the players have average power and keep it a little left they should be clear and in the fairway. Another right-to-left ball flight wouldn't hurt either. Those that can keep it left and over the bunker will have a fairway wood or possibly long iron into this surprisingly unprotected green. If they go right off this tee the green may not be reachable.
Approach: It took every hole before this one, but the tournament finally gets to a hole where greenside bunkers do not basically surround the green. This green does have one bunker on the front left, but there is space to miss right of this green. No doubt pin locations will gravitate towards that one single bunker, so a miss right also leaves a lot of this green to work with coming back. As long as the second shot finds its way up near this green, there should be no issues logging a birdie to close out the round. Green Size: 25x30 Yards
Advantage: Ball-Striking, SG: Around the Green, Par 5 Scoring
Conclusions
It's very obvious that the designers and re-designers of this course did not want the bombers to have any advantage. The fairways are narrow, bunkers and trees are in the way on almost every tee shot, and very wayward drives end up out of bounds. For those reasons, Driving Accuracy and Shots Gained Off the Tee will be extremely important this week.
In addition to keeping the ball straight off the tee, accurate approach shots are needed to make sure the ball stays out of all of these green-side bunkers as much as possible. Those with strong Shots Gained: Approach numbers as well as overall good Ball-Strikers will do well because they'll avoid most of the trouble all over the course.
Mentioned multiple times, but par 3 scoring is going to be difficult. All of them are pretty long and the greens are protected. Par is a good score on all four of them. There are only two par 5s and they are the easiest holes on the course, but even a birdie on both of them each round won't be enough to keep in contention. These guys will need to hit the ball straight off the tee, hit it on the green, and then score well on the Par 4's in order to climb the leaderboard.
The fairways and greens obviously will be hard to hit, so good Scramblers will keep themselves in contention throughout the weekend. Also, those with good Sand Save percentages should do well, it will be hard to go a round without hitting a couple of the bunkers around this course.
Other stats to consider: Scrambling, SG: Around the Green, 3 Putt avoidance, Total Driving, GIR
Assumptions
Images and measurements were done on Google Earth. These satellite images can sometimes be up to five or more years old and not show very recent changes to courses if there were any.
Carry distance is used for off-the-tee distances shown in the images. The average carry distance on tour in 2021 was 281 yards, so that is what is used here.
I used a total dispersion off-the-tee of 60 yards. This comes from an article that Jon Sherman wrote for Practical Golf (@practicalgolf) discussing average dispersion, and I took 5-10 yards off from that number.
I assumed a 10-15 yard roll out from the carry distance to start the measurement to the green. Measurements to the green were rounded to the nearest five yards and measured from the center of the fairway to the center of the green.
Green measurements were also measured to the nearest five yards.
Things like weather, rough length, elevation, etc. are not taken into consideration on the measurements. I can only see and assume so much from satellite images. However, I do note where possible on each hole if things like elevation and wind could impact how the hole plays.
Scorecard:
Win Big With RotoBaller
Golf is back, and it's time for you to win big with RotoBaller! Our PGA DFS Premium Package features several savvy analysts and proven DFS winners.Our very own Joe Nicely recently took down a big DraftKings DFS tournament for the Travelers Championship. And as an encore, RotoBaller subscriber @tenndolly2 won $100K on FanDuel with the help of Joe and the rest of our Premium PGA team:
If you read my articles @RotoBaller or listen to @TheTurnGolfPod I’ve been telling y’all it was #WinningSeason when golf came back! Shoutout to the entire @RotoBallerPGA squad and all you guys that support my work for all the ❤️ pic.twitter.com/07a4ynvbSU
— Joe Nicely (@JoeNicely) June 28, 2020
Between all the incredible Premium PGA DFS content and tools we put out each week, and our Premium Slack Community where we chat with our subscribers before lineups lock, RotoBaller PGA subscribers are armed with the tools, analysis, and advice to win big.Congrats @tenndolly2 ???
— RotoBaller PGA (@RotoBallerPGA) August 10, 2020
Thanks for being a @RotoBaller PGA DFS Premium subscriber & checking out all the amazing golf content that @JoeNicely produces every week! https://t.co/tHKZVsPbbt
