RADIO
It's an exciting time to be a Rotoballer premium subscriber as my workload at this fantastic company has been bulked up like Mackenzie Hughes' driving distance, with more weekly articles coming your way! This article is called the "Stat Buffet" where we are going to be trimming the fat off of many golfers' statistical profiles, highlighting the top 20 ranked golfers in each respective category.
The aim of this article is to help familiarize ourselves with how we can expect the course to play, what kind of skillsets matter most, and who are the best players in the field in those categories. To microwave the food analogy that will drizzle this article throughout, hopefully this piece takes you straight to the lobster when searching through the buffet of golfers to throw onto your DFS plate.
As the season has just started and about a third of the field has no more than eight tracked rounds of PGA Tour golf, we have to practice a bit of patience until we get well into the double digit round counts before we rely on their stats with confidence. That being said, you can find me on Twitter an unhealthy amount of the time @TheModelManiac, if you have any questions, compliments, or insults for me.
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The Menu (Course Breakdown)
TPC Summerlin: Par: 71, Yardage: 7,255, Greens: Bent
The Usual (Course History)
Course history for the last five years sees Patrick Cantlay, Sungjae Im, and Adam Hadwin averaging over two shots per round in their 12+ rounds they have played here.
This Week's Specials (Recent Form)
A peak at the top 20 in the four major strokes gained categories over the last 24 rounds. Please remember that for some of these numbers, the last 24 rounds could have taken place several months ago, and if it is a KFT graduate they most likely only played eight recorded rounds if they made both cuts.
Top 20 players gaining the most total strokes over the last 24 rounds.
Top 20 players gaining the most strokes off the tee over the last 24 rounds.
Top 20 players gaining the most strokes on approach over the last 24 rounds.
Top 20 players gaining the most strokes around the green over the last 24 rounds.
Top 20 players gaining the most strokes putting over the last 24 rounds.
Let The Big Dog Eat (Driving Stats)
The Driving Statistics portion of the article includes strokes gained off the tee, distance, accuracy and good drives gained. Any statistic that does not have a "L24" is a baseline stat and are weighted 96% (2022) and 4% (2023) by season. Distance, accuracy, and good drives gained are all stats that have data overlaps from the KFT to PGA Tour.
Just because a Korn Ferry Tour player does not appear in a baseline stat, does not mean they are not good at that aspect of golf. We are collecting data and pumping the breaks on using just a few rounds worth of data to make decisions.
Top 20 players gaining off the tee
Top 20 players that hit bombs
Top 20 most accurate drivers in the field
Top 20 players gaining good drives
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The Meat and Potatoes (Approach Stats)
Approach. Is. King!
Strokes gained approach is the stat that has the highest correlation to strokes gained total and a good approach player provides consistent performances, usually with a relatively high floor. It is indeed the meat and potatoes of all the stats.
Top 20 in strokes gained approach
Top 20 in Green in Regulation % from the fairway. This is one of the few approach stats that has overlapping data between the PGA and KFT Tours. Ideally, we would prefer to lean on strokes gained approach, but this puts all the fish in one pond which is useful to a certain extent.
On average, 54% of shots will take place between 100 and 175 yards. These are the Top 20 golfers in approach proximity from the fairway.
Top 20 players in Green in Regulation % out of the rough
Scrambled Eggs (Around the Green)
If you can scramble, you can make up for a lot of poor approach shots. Let's take a look at who likes their eggs plane, and who likes them with some Tobasco sauce.
These guys can get themselves out of almost any pickle around the greens. Top 20 players around the green.
With such a high emphasis on around the green play here, this intrigues me as players are hitting greens in regulation 7% more than average tour stops. My understanding of this course is that there are a lot of chipping areas where players will be chipping from fringe-like lies, with hopes of stealing a birdie or eagle from off the green.
The 20 best bunker players in the field.
This may be the least useful of all the surfaces as it appears most shots around the green will be tight lies or bunkers.
Eat Your Greens (Putting)
Eat your greens, or else you may miss the cut.
The top 20 best putters in the field. Putting is one of the hardest stats to translate from the KFT to PGA, but the putting average statistic provides an overlap of data from the two tours and although the putting averages of most of the KFT grads ahead of Cantlay should regress a little now that they are playing tougher conditions, it still gives us an idea of who is capable of rolling them in when they get hot.
With only four rounds on Bent and those four rounds gaining 11+ strokes on the field, Taylor Montgomery put forth a putting performance at the Fortinet that was only achieved four times all of last season. He is an incredible putter and leans on that heavily to gain on the field.
Sprinkles and Syrup (Scoring Stats)
Whatever you like on your ice cream or cheesecake, throw a little extra on there with some scoring stats.
Top 20 scorers on easy courses (where par for the top 5 was -15 or better).
The 20 best birdie makers.
The best at playing boring golf, avoiding bogeys.
Who gets it in the hole the fastest on par 5s?
The Fortune Cookie (Above Average in Seven Key Stats)
Fortune favors the brave, and these 13 guys appear to be above average in all seven key categories used to slim down my player pool.
This ends the first Stat Buffet article of the series and hopefully it helped you narrow down your players with ease and success.
Good luck this week and as always, may the odds be ever in your favor!!!
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