PGA Betting Advice - Wyndham Championship

Spencer Aguiar digs into the Vegas betting lines to find some of his best under-the-radar plays for the Wyndham Championship

Here at RotoBaller, we are always searching for ways to give our readers the best fantasy sports content possible. With that goal in mind, we are very proud to announce the arrival of our new column that will cover head-to-head plays for each PGA Tour stop. If you are looking for a more in-depth breakdown, be sure to also check out my weekly PGA DFS: Vegas Report. There you will find my complete betting card, as well as my head-to-head play of the week.

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In this feature, I will present a handful of head-to-head wagers that just missed out on being my best bet of the week for my Vegas Report article. If you have any questions, feel free to contact me on Twitter @Teeoffsports. Be sure to read all of our other top-notch weekly PGA DFS and betting articles to help you win big!

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Head-To-Head Selection

Russell Henley -110 over J.T. Poston

Reasons I Liked the Play: 

We have seen a ton of reverse line movement on this play so far in the week, with Henley dropping from a -130 favorite down to a virtual pick'em at -110. I thought the opening line of -130 was spot-on for where the number should have been, and it is hard to ignore the four percent advantage of implied win probability we are getting over my math. Poston's victory here last season seems to be attracting some sharp money into the market, but his poor iron play recently has my model raising a red flag.

Reasons It Didn't Make the Premium Card: 

Frankly, it just comes down to a lack of upside potential for Henley. Head-to-head bets are not about trying to pinpoint the winner of the tournament, but his deficiency of birdie-making prowess might be his eventual downfall at an event that is going to require a score inside the 20s to win. Poston has proven he can get to that total at Sedgefield Country Club in the past, and his improvements on Bermuda over all other surfaces is a notable one.

0.77 Units to Win 0.70

Cameron Davis +110 over Jhonattan Vegas

Reasons I Liked the Play: 

We get two guys who are heading in opposite directions over the last month. Cameron Davis has compiled back-to-back top-35 finishes, including a 22nd place result at this week's venue last season. Vegas, on the other hand, hasn't made a cut since the Workday Charity Open and continues to struggle with his irons and short game.

Reasons It Didn't Make the Premium Card: 

I have trepidation behind this play for a few reasons. It would be naive to deal in absolutes when it comes to both Davis and Vegas' recent form. I don't believe the Aussie is this steady or consistent, and I know for a fact that Vegas is not this bad - especially when it comes to his ball-striking nature. This play does have my biggest disparity difference of the week at nearly 10% off of what it should be when it comes to implied probability, but I can't say I am overly enthusiastic for the reasons mentioned above. It feels like one of those spots where my model is being a little too sensitive to limited recent results, but it is still worth a play at a plus-number.

0.64 Units to Win 0.70

Sam Burns +120 over Chris Kirk 

Reasons I Liked the Play: 

It has become a weekly practice for us of fading Chris Kirk in this article. I continue to stand by this narrative that the American is overvalued because of the traction he has gained by the media over his recent troubles off the golf course, but it is not as if it has done us a ton of good by going 2-3 over our past 5 attempts of opposing him. I'm a firm believer that his top-25 in Detroit can be chalked up to some lucky around the green shots, and it is not as if he has provided anything else inside the top-25 since March of 2019.

Reasons It Didn't Make the Premium Card: 

Of all the weeks we have faded Chris Kirk, Sedgefield Country Club does make the most sense for him to find success with his game. It should allow the American to use his mid-iron skills to receive a boost in his often faulty approach numbers, and it also will provide him with a chance to find scoring opportunities at an easier venue. Kirk remains a better fade when the going gets tough, and it doesn't help that some of Sam Burns' off the tee abilities will get negated this week.

0.58 Units to Win 0.70

Adding

Brooks Koepka +160 over Webb Simpson

Adding Brooks Koepka +160 over Webb Simpson. I have these two at a virtual coin flip for the week. Webb isn't a person I'm actively looking to fade, but this number has gotten carried away.

0.65 Units to Win 1.04

Top-20 Recommendations (All Ties Pay Fully)

Patrick Reed (+100) - 0.75 to Win 0.75

Most 16/1 shots aren't going to equate to being even-money to finish inside the top-20 in fields of 156 players, but that is assuming 16/1 is the proper price on the surface. I have Reed as my most likely person to walk out of North Carolina victorious, and I believe his overall level of consistency and upside plays across the board in all contests and bets.

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2020 Premium Head-to-Head Record (11-10-3)

-0.12 Units Year-To-Date From Premium H2H Bets

Year-To-Date Free Head-To-Head Results

15-17-0 (+1.13 Units)

Premium Top-20

8-of-36 (+4.78 Units)

Free Top-20

2-of-8 (+0.94 Units)

2020 Bets That Have Finished Inside The Top-10

Yearly Record:

2017 Golf Betting:
Head to Head Bets (10-2-2) +8.175 Units
Outright Winners (5)
Dustin Johnson Genesis Open (10/1)
Sergio Garcia Masters (50/1)
Brooks Koepka U.S. Open (45/1)
Justin Thomas PGA Championship (35/1)
Dustin Johnson Northern Trust (14/1)

2018 Golf Betting:
Head to Head Bets (46-24-2) +24.49 Units
Outright Winners (5)
Phil Mickelson WGC-Mexico (22/1)
Bubba Watson WGC- Match Play (45/1)
Brooks Koepka U.S. Open In-Play Wager (14/1)
Dustin Johnson RBC Canadian Open (7/1)
Justin Thomas WGC-Bridgestone (30/1)

2019 Golf Betting:
Head to Head Bets (16-9-2) +8.33 Units
Outright Winners (5)
Matt Kuchar Mayakoba Golf Classic (66/1)
Corey Conners Valero Texas Open (200/1)
Rory McIlroy RBC Canadian Open  (10/1)
Brooks Koepka WGC- St. Jude Classic (12/1)
Rory McIlroy Tour Championship (8/1)

Career Record (Excluding 2020 Season Results)

Head to Head Bets (72-35-6) +40.995 Units
Outright Winners (15)
Top 5s (Didn't Track in 2017)
2018 - 16
2019 - 26
Top 10s (Didn't Track in 2017)
2018 - 31
2019 - 41
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