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The Divisional round of the NFL Playoffs gets underway with a Saturday doubleheader. Below you can read our matchups analysis article for the Packers vs. 49ers game to help make any fantasy lineup decisions for playoff leagues and DFS contests.
The Packers shocked the Dallas Cowboys in the Wild Card round last weekend behind the strong play of young quarterback Jordan Love and veteran running back Aaron Jones. Green Bay will have a tall task staying alive against an experienced San Francisco squad with a talented offense that includes Brock Purdy, Christian McCaffrey, Deebo Samuel, and George Kittle.
Read our fantasy football breakdowns for this game -- the recommended starts, sits, and matchups we love heading into an exciting game during the Divisional round. Good luck, RotoBallers!
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Green Bay Packers at San Francisco 49ers
Spread: 49ers -9.5
Implied Total: Packers (20.5) vs. 49ers (30)
Pace: Packers (17th) vs. 49ers (32nd)
Packers Off. DVOA: 34.9% Pass (4th), -4.2% Rush (15th)
49ers Off. DVOA: 57.7% Pass (1st), 17.3% Rush (2nd)
Packers Def. DVOA: 17.8% Pass (26th), -3.3% Rush (26th)
49ers Def. DVOA: -9.4% Pass (4th), -10.1% Rush (15th)
PFF Coverage Grade: Packers (19th) vs. 49ers (3rd)
PFF Rush D Grade: Packers (18th) vs. 49ers (10th)
Offensive EPA/Play: Packers (5th) vs. 49ers (1st)
EPA/Play Allowed: Packers (23rd) vs. 49ers (10th)
WEATHER: This game has a chance of rain but no wind, so it shouldn't have much impact.
Matchups We Love
Christian McCaffrey (RB, SF)
We'll get the privilege of seeing both No. 1 seeds in action on Saturday with similar David vs. Goliath storylines in both. A young quarterback on an ascending team against one of the NFL's most dominant franchises for the past two years. Aside from Week 18, when they rested starters, the 49ers only lost one time when their quartet of offensive weapons and top offensive lineman Trent Williams were all active, which was against Baltimore. Including that loss, they outscored their opponents 253 to 137 for a plus-126 point margin from Weeks 10 to 17. It illustrates why many view them as the best team in the league.
This season, Christian McCaffrey became the 1st player since Emmitt Smith in 1995 to lead the NFL in rushing every week from the start of the season to the end. #49ers pic.twitter.com/DB08KCaxjX
— NFL Stats (@NFL_Stats) January 19, 2024
They're by far the most versatile team, but McCaffrey is arguably their most important player because of his dual-threat ability as a runner and receiver, driving defenses crazy. He's also fantasy gold, scoring touchdowns at will. Green Bay did well to slow down Dallas's rushing attack, but Tony Pollard has been struggling for weeks, so that's not an accurate depiction of how this one should play out, particularly if they let San Francisco get a lead. There's no way to have anyone other than McCaffrey at RB1 this week.
Brock Purdy (QB, SF)
Elite weapons, brilliant play calling, and extraordinary poise set Purdy up as a threat for a spike week every time he steps on the field. He led the league in passer rating (113) and yards per attempt (9.6) while finishing second in completion percentage of quarterbacks with 10 or more starts (69.4%). It was an MVP-caliber campaign if not for the collapse against the Ravens. Fortunately, the Packers are not nearly as well equipped to give him issues. He's one of the more volatile signal-callers this week because this team can score on the ground or through the air regardless of who they're up against, but has a strong case to be inside the top five.
Deebo Samuel & Brandon Aiyuk (WR, SF)
Samuel had an outstanding season, especially when it came to finding the end zone, which he did seven times as a receiver and five times as a runner. It's reminiscent of two years ago when he piled up eight rushing scores. He tends to score in bunches as evidenced by his four multi-touchdown games and five when he didn't find pay dirt. Given the over/under and the opportunity the matchup presents on the ground, betting on the former makes sense.
Deebo Samuel 2023 Highlights!
Deebo has been a BEAST when healthy this season! #49ers #FTTB #Deebo #NFL pic.twitter.com/SWJ0bu4dz4
— Chris - NFL Content (@chrissantosss_) January 13, 2024
His partner in crime is Aiyuk, who quietly went over 1,300 receiving yards while averaging 17.9 yards per reception, which is a career-high. He too was up and down with seven 100-plus yard receiving games but five with 50 or fewer. The concern for him is lining up across from Jaire Alexander, who did a great job against CeeDee Lamb last week, but is questionable to suit up. It drops him below Samuel, but both are worthy of a spot in the top five.
George Kittle (TE, SF)
With so many other weapons to choose from, Kittle has historically found himself as the odd man out unless one of the wideouts is sidelined. However, this season was different. He started slow during the first two weeks, but after that, had just five bust games compared to nine great outings, including seven inside the top five finishes at tight end with three at No. 1 overall on the week. Given his ceiling in an awesome matchup and a potential shootout, he slots in as the TE1.
Jordan Love (QB, GB)
Speaking of brilliant play calling. Matt LaFleur, a disciple of Kyle Shanahan, executed his game plan to perfection against the Cowboys. They embarrassed Dallas, bursting out to a 27-0 lead. Even Shanahan admitted he began preparing for the Packers midway through the second quarter.
Jordan Love is the only QB to have three 90+ PFF grades since week 13 🤯📈
Hot streak 🔥 pic.twitter.com/RLhRwfVFQe
— PFF GB Packers (@PFF_Packers) January 19, 2024
Love posted almost identical numbers to Stroud, showcasing why they invested a first-round pick in him. Credit also goes to the offensive line that allowed zero sacks to Micah Parsons and Co. With so many weapons at his disposal against a defense that shuts down the run, Love is positioned to throw a lot and take chances downfield. He's the QB4 in what could be a barn burner.
Aaron Jones (RB, GB)
Jones is as healthy as he's been all season and it shows. He's energetic, inspiring teammates, and punishing defenses. Aaron Rodgers may own the Bears, but Jones owns the Cowboys. He went over 100 rushing yards yet again while finding the end zone three times. There are far too many players involved in the offense to know exactly who you can count on each week, so outside of Love, it's Jones. The matchup isn't ideal, but Jones is an exceptional runner with above-average receiving skills. Plus, AJ Dillon is questionable to play. Jones is set up for another top-five performance.
Matchups We Hate
None
Other Matchups:
Packers WRs
Typically, we'll list all the players in the heading and/or target the select few that are fantasy-relevant. However, in the case of this group, it's really difficult to decipher, especially when everyone is active. Last week, each of Romeo Doubs, Jayden Reed, Dontayvion Wicks, Christian Watson, and Bo Melton earned at least one target. The surprising part was Doubs blowing up with six grabs for 151 yards and a score combined with Reed failing to catch a pass. Wicks found the end zone as well, but Watson and Melton were held to one reception. Watson still doesn't look healthy and Melton is fifth in the pecking order. That leaves Doubs and Reed as the best bets with Wicks next up. Charvarius Ward is the best CB for San Francisco. He's likely to focus on Doubs, opening more opportunities for Reed, who still leads the way as the WR10 this week with Doubs not far behind and then Wicks and Watson in the WR15-WR20 range.
The @packers young WR’s are no longer just physically talented @Hawk @RobDemovsky @GBPdaily #nfllive pic.twitter.com/cKC4sJlJuk
— Dan Orlovsky (@danorlovsky7) January 17, 2024
Luke Musgrave & Tucker Kraft (TE, GB)
These two talented tight ends are great for Love, but an issue for the receivers. Kraft played more snaps but they both earned three targets. Musgrave got free on broken coverage, allowing him to wait for the ball to arrive and still run into the end zone for 38 yards. He operated as the starter earlier in the year, so with another week to recover, he's the preferred option, but both are outside the top five.
Notable Injuries
AJ Dillon (thumb/neck)
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