X
Lost password?

Don't have an account?
Gain Access Now

X

Receive free daily analysis

NFL
NBA
NHL
NASCAR
CFB
MLB
MMA
PGA
ESPORTS
BETTING

Already have an account? Log In

X

Forgot Password


POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Daily Stats & Leaders
All Pitcher Matchups
Compare Any Players
Compare Any Players
Rookies & Call-Ups
24x7 News and Alerts

Overvalued, Undervalued Trade Targets - Buy/Sell for Fantasy Baseball (Week 9)

Pete Alonso - Fantasy Baseball Rankings, Draft Sleepers, MLB Injury News

Trade candidates to buy or sell in fantasy baseball after Week 9 of the 2023 MLB season. Ben Rosener lists overvalued and undervalued players to target or trade away.

Making the right trades can be crucial to championship success in fantasy baseball. Almost as much as the draft, if not more. While most trades can have a significant impact on your fantasy team, it’s the deals where you acquire undervalued players and then see their production improve that can really tip the scales in your favor where the standings are concerned.

The same can certainly be said about trading away players at the right time when they have the most fantasy trade value. Those deals could happen in the second week of April or the last week of August, but they’re impactful all the same.

Here are some undervalued candidates to pursue in trades and some overvalued ones who you should consider dealing for if they presently occupy a spot on your roster.

Be sure to check all of our fantasy baseball lineup tools and resources:

 

Undervalued Players To Trade For

Pete Alonso, New York Mets

The home runs are certainly not missing for Pete Alonso. Nor is the power production.

The slugger has connected on 18 so far this season in 209 plate appearances, driving in 43 runs in the process for the New York Mets. His ISO sits at .311.

In fact, both Alonso’s home run total and ISO are both marked improvements on his 2022 numbers to this point last year.

Through May 23 last year, Alonso had 18 fewer plate appearances, but also seven fewer home runs and an ISO nearly .070 points lower at .235.

The only thing missing is the batting average. After hitting .288 through 191 plate appearances through May 23 last year, and logging a .271 average for the entirety of the season, Alonso is batting just .230 so far this year.

It sounds rather simple to point to a .200 BABIP and say that’s one of the primary reasons here in terms of Alonso's production not being better.

But it sort of is.

Actually, it very much is.

Alonso is making all sorts of elite contact, with a .417 xwOBA so far, not to mention a .621 xSLG. Most importantly, his xwOBAcon has jumped close to .100 points, rising from .403 to .500.

Combine the BABIP with the xwOBAcon and some of his plate discipline metrics, and you have a recipe for some serious positive regression.

Pete Alonso In 2022

  • BB%: 9.8%
  • K% 18.7%
  • Chase Rate: 33.5%
  • Whiff Rate: 24.2%
  • In-Zone Contact Rate: 84.3%

Pete Alonso In 2023

  • BB%: 11.5%
  • K% 21.5%
  • Chase Rate: 26.7%
  • Whiff Rate: 26.1%
  • In-Zone Contact Rate: 82.1%

 

Overvalued Players To Trade Away

Christopher Morel, Chicago Cubs

Ok, so Christopher Morel isn’t your traditional entry in the “overrated” portion of this column.

He’s off to a strong start this season, hitting .367 with a .404 on-base percentage, nine home runs, and a stolen base through 52 plate appearances as of the beginning of play on Wednesday.

With a .429 BABIP, there’s bound to be some regression coming, though Morel’s power has been legitimate so far, with a 30% barrel rate, a .710 xwOBAcon, a .450 xwOBA, and a 63.3% hard-hit rate.

The 30% barrel rate likely isn’t going to continue. Since 2015, Aaron Judge (twice) and Joey Gallo are the only qualified batters to have topped a 22% barrel rate in full season and the best Judge did was 26.2% last year. Still, Morel’s barrel rate so far, while unsustainable at 30%, is a clear sign that he’s going to continue to hit for power moving forward.

What’s more, with his multi-position eligibility – the 24-year-old is eligible at second base, third base, shortstop, and in the outfield in Yahoo leagues – he’s going to provide some serious fantasy value moving forward.

And that’s all without mentioning the stolen base upside. Morel stole 10 bases in 113 games last season and logged four stolen bases in 29 Triple-A games before being recalled earlier this month.

But, and this is the crucial bit, now might be the best time to move Morel. Of course, don’t just trade him just to trade him, but if you can get a significant, decidedly above-average fantasy performer for the versatile Cubs player, it might pay significant dividends in the long run.

Because while the power, versatility, and speed are good, the strikeouts are... not.

We’re still dealing with a smaller sample size for the 24-year-old, but he’s striking out 36.5% of the time so far after turning in a 32.2% strikeout rate in the Majors in 2022. Earlier this year at Triple-A he struck out 30.6% of the time.

So far with the Cubs, Morel has also seen both his chase rate and whiff rate rise notably.

  • Christopher Morel In 2022: 28.6% chase rate, 38.3% whiff rate, 425 PA.
  • Christopher Morel In 2023: 35.6% chase rate, 42.2% whiff rate, 52 PA.

For context, the infielder and outfielder’s chase rate finished in the 56th percentile last season. His whiff rate in 2022? That finished in the first percentile.

In short, the .367 average just doesn’t seem anywhere close to sustainable, nor does it seem likely to be anywhere close to what the 24-year-old’s batting average might look like come the end of the season. Morel hit .235 in 2022 with rather high swing-and-miss metrics across the board, and that was with a 13.4% barrel rate and a .447 xwOBAcon.

In essence, his fantasy trade value is probably at its highest right now. It’s definitely a defensible move and overall strategy to hang on to him for everything he brings to the table fantasy-wise, but if you can get a good offer for Morel, now’s the time to make a move.

Lane Thomas, Washington Nationals

Lane Thomas has provided some solid production as an outfield regular in Washington with the Nationals after being acquired from the St. Louis Cardinals in a July 30 2021 trade for veteran starter Jon Lester.

In 950 plate appearances with the Nationals since that deal, Thomas is hitting .258 with a .324 on-base percentage, a .175 ISO, and a 108 wRC+. Those metrics include 196 plate appearances this season in which the outfielder is batting .294 with a .347 on-base percentage, a .351 wOBA, a .371 BABIP, seven home runs, and four stolen bases.

Just like with Alonso, the BABIP (while not the entire story) is especially key here – although unlike Alonso it points to some regression coming for Thomas.

Regression considering the outfielder isn’t hitting the ball particularly hard on a consistent basis. He’s sporting a 38.9% hard-hit rate, a .379 xwOBAcon, and a .308 xwOBA as of the start of play on Wednesday. Elsewhere his barrel rate has risen only 0.4% from 6.5% last year to 6.9% this year.

In fact, most of Thomas’ underlying and quality of contact metrics are fairly similar to his 2022 numbers, when he hit .241 with a .301 on-base percentage, a .308 wOBA, and a .291 BABIP in 548 plate appearances.

  • Lane Thomas In 2022: 548 PA, .286 xwOBA, .339 xwOBAcon, 34.5% hard-hit rate, 6.5% barrel rate, 7.5 BB%, 24.1 K%, 45.3% ground ball rate.
  • Lane Thomas In 2023: 196 PA, .308 xwOBA, .379 xwOBAcon, 38.9% hard-hit rate, 6.9% barrel rate, 6.1 BB%, 25.5 K%, 46.6% ground ball rate.

Now, Granted Thomas did collect 17 home runs and eight stolen bases last year, providing quality fantasy numbers in both categories. Still, if he keeps making this type of contact, his overall production will likely take a serious dip from where it is now.

It is also worth noting that a significant chunk of the outfielder’s production, including four of his seven home runs, has come against fastballs. Fastballs have accounted for 57.3% of the pitches Thomas has seen, and he’s hitting .320 with a .361 wOBA against them. However, his expected numbers aren’t quite as good comparatively against fastballs, with a .272 xBA and a .316 xwOBA.

There’s also the fact that due in part to the production and Washington’s struggling lineup, Thomas has hit in the top third of the Nationals batting order more often than not, with 115 of his 196 plate appearances either coming as the leadoff hitter or second hitter.

Speculatively speaking, if the rebuilding Nationals trade Thomas this summer, he likely wouldn’t get nearly as many plate appearances near the top of the order on a contending team. Of course, that’s again all entirely speculative, but not hitting near the top of the lineup with the added plate appearances that come with it would put a dent in Thomas’ rest-of-season fantasy upside.



Download Our Free News & Alerts Mobile App

Like what you see? Download our updated fantasy baseball app for iPhone and Android with 24x7 player news, injury alerts, sleepers, prospects & more. All free!



More Fantasy Baseball Advice




POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Daily Stats & Leaders
All Pitcher Matchups
Compare Any Players
Compare Any Players
Rookies & Call-Ups
24x7 News and Alerts

REAL-TIME FANTASY NEWS

Jayden Reed

Undergoes Clavicle and Foot Surgeries, Out for Foreseeable Future
Bo Bichette

to Miss Rest of Regular Season
Zach Neto

Placed on 10-Day Injured List With Hand Injury
Yordan Alvarez

Out on Tuesday, Dealing With "Significant" Ankle Sprain
Aaron Jones Sr.

Vikings Place Aaron Jones Sr. on Injured Reserve With Hamstring Injury
CFB

Diego Pavia Refutes Report of Seeking Seventh Collegiate Season
Christian Kirk

Expected to Return in Week 3
CFB

Diego Pavia Seeking Another Year of Eligibility
Tarik Skubal

on Track to Start Thursday
CFB

Kevorian Barnes Questionable Against SMU
Bo Bichette

has Short-Term Knee Injury, Could Return for Postseason
Tosan Evbuomwan

Joins Knicks
NBA

Kai Jones Links Up With EuroLeague Team
Bismack Biyombo

Returns to Spurs
Bones Hyland

Rejoins Timberwolves
Kobe Bufkin

Moves to Brooklyn
Trey Yesavage

Sets Franchise Strikeout Record On Monday
Yordan Alvarez

To Receive MRI For Sprained Left Ankle On Tuesday
Willson Contreras

Exits Early Monday With Right-Biceps Tightness
Yordan Alvarez

Exits With Ankle Sprain
Brock Bowers

Officially Active on Monday Night
Jauan Jennings

Day-to-Day With Ankle Injury
Logan O'Hoppe

Activated Off Seven-Day Injured List
CBJ

Denton Mateychuk Dealing With Groin Issue
Bo Horvat

Fine for Training Camp
Kirby Dach

on Track to Be Ready for Opening Night
Jose Altuve

Returns Against Rangers
J.J. McCarthy

Expected to Miss 2-4 Weeks With High-Ankle Sprain
J.J. McCarthy

Likely Out for Week 3 With High-Ankle Sprain
Jean Silva

Gets Finished For The First Time In His Career
Aaron Jones Sr.

Unlikely to Play in Week 3 Due to Hamstring Injury
Diego Lopes

Returns To The Win Column
Jayden Daniels

' Week 3 Status in Doubt
Rob Font

Outclassed In The Noche UFC 3 Co-Main Event
David Martinez

Wins His Second UFC Fight
Jared Gordon

Suffers Brutal TKO Loss At Noche UFC 3
Rafa Garcia

Wins Back-To-Back Fights
Brian Thomas Jr.

Dealing with Wrist Injury
Dustin Stoltzfus

Drops A Decision At Noche UFC 3
Kelvin Gastelum

Gets Back In The Win Column
Diego Ferreira

Suffers Second-Round TKO
Alexander Hernandez

Extends His Win Streak With A Brutal TKO
Quang Le

Suffers First-Round Knockout
Santiago Luna

Shines In His UFC Debut
Christopher Bell

Earns his First Bristol Cup Series Victory
Alex Bowman

Falls Short of Advancing Through Cup Series Playoffs
Chase Briscoe

Collects his Third Top-10 Finish at Bristol
Ryan Blaney

Strong Top-Five Bristol Performance Advances him to the Playoffs
Corey Heim

Earns his First Career Cup Series Top-10 Finish at Bristol
Giannis Antetokounmpo

Leads Greece to Bronze Medal
Alperen Sengün

Alperen Sengun Drops 28 Points in EuroBasket Finals
CFB

Indiana's Lee Beebe Jr. Out for Season with Knee Injury
Dennis Schröder

Dennis Schroder Named EuroBasket MVP
Bryce Eldridge

Giants to Promote Bryce Eldridge
Jaren Jackson Jr.

Progressing in Recovery
Jonathan Kuminga

Receives New Offer From Warriors
Kenneth Walker III

Bounces Back with Big Week 2 Performance
Bijan Robinson

Rushes for 143 Yards in Week 2
Justin Fields

Currently in Concussion Protocol
Cincinnati Bengals

Bengals Calling Around to Available Free-Agent Quarterbacks
Joe Burrow

to Undergo Surgery, Out at Least Three Months
Emil Heineman

Aiming to Take the "Next Step" This Season
Braeden Cootes

Good to Go for Camp
Ivan Fedotov

Blue Jackets Acquire Ivan Fedotov From Flyers
Aaron Jones Sr.

Injures Hamstring During Sunday Night Football
Darren Waller

Not Expected to Play in Week 3
Garrett Crochet

Punches Out 12 in Win
Cole Ragans

to Return on Wednesday
Jameson Williams

Records Long Touchdown in Week 2, Still Limited to Downfield Role?
George Kirby

Strikes Out 14 in Win
Jayden Daniels

Considered "Day-to-Day" with Knee Injury
Carlos Estévez

Carlos Estevez Exits with Back Tightness
Jonathan Taylor

Tops 200 Yards From Scrimmage in Week 2 Win
Joe Burrow

Could Miss Three Months if he Requires Toe Surgery
Quentin Grimes

Still Not Close to a New Contract Agreement
Joel Embiid

"Looking Slender, Spry and in Positive Spirits"
Ty Gibbs

Has Arguably his Best Career Drive, but Only Finishes 10th
Chase Elliott

Despite Crashing Out at Bristol, Chase Elliott Advances to Round of 12
Austin Dillon

Misses Round of 12 After Extremely Mediocre Bristol Run
Shane Van Gisbergen

Shane van Gisbergen Fails to Advance to Round of 12
Josh Berry

Finishes Last in All Three Round of 16 Races to Fail to Advance
Luis Arraez

Takes a Seat on Sunday With Head Injury
Adolis García

Adolis Garcia Activated, Starting on Sunday
CFB

Ryan Williams Explodes In Return To Field
CFB

Drew Allar Plays Mediocre Game In Blowout Win
CFB

LaNorris Sellers Exits Game In Blowout Loss
CFB

DJ Lagway Tosses Five Interceptions In Loss
CFB

Garrett Nussmeier Plays Game Manager in Saturday's Win
CFB

CJ Carr Remains Poised In Narrow Loss
CFB

John Mateer Leads Oklahoma In Rout
CFB

Arch Manning Struggles Against UTEP
CFB

Jeremiah Smith Impresses In Win
Bryan Woo

Records Career-High 13 Strikeouts
Max Muncy

Exits Early on Saturday
CFB

Sam Leavitt Shines As Arizona State Rebounds From Week 2 Loss
Salvador Perez

Reaches 300 Home Runs, 1,000 RBI
Ivan Demidov

Turning Heads in Rookie Camp
NHL

Calvin de Haan Signs With Swedish Team
Samuel Girard

Skates With Non-Contact Jersey
Mackenzie Blackwood

Dealing With Injury Ahead of Training Camp
Spencer Knight

Signs Three-Year Extension With Blackhawks
Chris Buescher

May have Another Solid Run at Bristol
Corey Perry

Out 6-8 Weeks Following Surgery
Kyle Busch

Should DFS Managers Roster Kyle Busch at Bristol?
Ricky Stenhouse Jr

Is Ricky Stenhouse Jr. Too Risky to Consider Rostering at Bristol?
Michael McDowell

Could be A Solid Value Option For Bristol DFS Lineups
Chase Elliott

Probably Won't Factor in for Bristol Win
NASCAR

Bubba Wallace Not as Strong at Bristol as Other Short Tracks
Alex Bowman

Needs to Win to Make Round of 12
Ross Chastain

has Never Led at Bristol but Has Been Pretty Consistent
Austin Dillon

Richmond Speed Unlikely to Carry Over to Bristol
Josh Berry

Might Run Well at Bristol, but Almost Certainly Won't Win to Advance
Justin Haley

Bristol One of Justin Haley's Few Recent Bright Spots
CFB

Austin Simmons Listed As Game-Time Decision Against Arkansas
CFB

Nico Iamaleava Struggles In Fourth Straight Loss
Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen

Dealing With a "Tweak"
BUF

Alexandar Georgiev Joins Sabres on One-Year Deal
Corey Perry

Injured During Pre-Camp Skate
CFB

Antonio Williams Out Against Georgia Tech
CFB

CJ Bailey Flashes Again in Win Over Wake Forest
CFB

Jaxson Moi a Game-Time Decision for Tennessee on Saturday
Jean Silva

A Favorite At Noche UFC 3
Diego Lopes

Set For Noche UFC 3 Main Event
Rob Font

Looks For His Third Consecutive Win
David Martinez

Set For Noche UFC 3 Co-Main Event
Rafa Garcia

An Underdog At Noche UFC 3
Jared Gordon

Looks To Win Back-To-Back Fights
Dustin Stoltzfus

Looks To Return To The Win Column
Kelvin Gastelum

In Dire Need Of Victory
Diego Ferreira

Looks To Get Back In The Win Column
Malcolm Brogdon

Heading to Knicks on One-Year Deal
CFB

David Sanders Jr. Won't Play Against Georgia
Landry Shamet

Staying with the Knicks
CFB

Dylan Edwards Slated to Return on Friday
Adam Lowry

Aims for Early-Season Return
P.J. Washington

Officially Signs Contract Extension
Lauri Markkanen

Big at Both Ends as Finland Books Place in EuroBasket Semis
Luka Dončić

Luka Doncic Notches 39 Points in Losing Effort
NBA

Cam Reddish Expected to Move to Europe
NBA

Trey Lyles Joins Real Madrid
Charles Bassey

Signs Exhibit 10 Deal With Hawks
Sacramento Kings

Terence Davis Waived by Kings

RANKINGS

QB
RB
WR
TE
K
DEF
RANKINGS
C
1B
2B
3B
SS
OF
SP
RP