Jon Anderson's Outfield Tiered Rankings and Projections

3 years ago by Jon Anderson

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I continue to press forward on my own personal rankings series. Today we tackle the beast that is the outfield. Check out the rest of the series at the links below if you haven't already!

First Base
Second Base
Shortstop
Third Base

Starting at the top, here's that juicy tier one full of first-round talent.

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Tier 1

Player			Current Projections
Name	Rank	ADP	PA	R	HR	RBI	SB	AVG
Ronald Acuna Jr.	1	1.6	683	117	41	101	28	.282
Juan Soto	2	4.1	651	110	39	115	12	.304
Mike Trout	3	6.1	671	106	41	106	10	.280
Mookie Betts	4	3.4	685	92	34	92	20	.275

These are names that will routinely go in the top five of drafts. How you order them has a lot to do with league settings and personal preference. I prefer to lock down steals and batting average early, which puts Betts a step behind the pack since he isn't super-elite in either of those categories. But look, you can't go wrong here - you're getting elite production as long these names stay healthy.

Favorite: Acuna

Tier 2

Player			Current Projections
Name	Rank	ADP	PA	R	HR	RBI	SB	AVG
Christian Yelich	5	11.7	670	103	34	96	18	.274
Cody Bellinger	6	15.6	642	102	41	114	12	.280
Bryce Harper	7	20.3	663	101	36	99	13	.248

The upside with these three is not a far step down from tier one, especially in the case of Yelich who was right there with the tier one names before his down 2020 season. You're probably giving up some batting average upside with Bellinger and Harper, and none of these three are likely to steal 20 bags (although all of them are more than capable of doing so). If you're the type to completely ignore 2020, Yelich is your best bet here, and getting him in the second round probably makes you very excited. That's more or less the boat I'm in here. It's also important to note that Harper is a significant gainer in an OBP format with his high walk rate.

Favorite: Yelich

Tier 3

Player			Current Projections
Name	Rank	ADP	PA	R	HR	RBI	SB	AVG
George Springer	8	53.3	668	107	34	87	7	.271
Marcell Ozuna	9	47.6	647	91	35	105	5	.276
Eloy Jimenez	10	36.2	632	90	39	107	1	.289
Luis Robert	11	35.8	610	78	29	85	22	.259
Kyle Tucker	12	31.2	618	85	30	92	20	.258
Aaron Judge	13	57.5	609	98	36	89	6	.251
Michael Conforto	14	74.7	648	91	31	92	7	.253

This is the first significant step down in a tier. There are lots of steals and power upside here, but no real five-category threats. The highest upside names are Robert and Tucker with their ability to steal bases, but they are also the most likely busts from this group. The safest bets in my eyes are Springer, Ozuna, and Conforto as they all have pretty strong track records and are prominently displayed in some of the game's best lineups. Those three are probably my favorite in this group, and I find myself more and more taking my first outfielder from this group of guys.

Favorite: Springer
Too Cheap: Conforto
Too Expensive: Tucker
Upside: Robert
Biggest Risk: Judge

Tier 4

Player			Current Projections
Name	Rank	ADP	PA	R	HR	RBI	SB	AVG
Starling Marte	15	50.1	646	78	19	78	23	.273
Trent Grisham	16	63.4	632	92	24	75	15	.253
Nick Castellanos	17	84.7	651	88	29	89	3	.255
Charlie Blackmon	18	90.1	609	85	25	81	6	.285

Another pretty steep drop-off takes towards the land of specialists. Marte is the last decent five-category bet, but he's never really gone over the top in any category and his upside seems limited with that Marlins lineup around him. Blackmon's price is cheaper than ever, making him a pretty interesting guy to grab as your second or third outfielder, but you're probably not going to get the same run and power production as you have in the past. All-in-all, this is a boring, but productive tier.

Favorite: Castellanos
Too Cheap: Blackmon
Too Expensive: Grisham
Upside: Castellanos
Biggest Risk: Grisham

Tier 5

Player			Current Projections
Name	Rank	ADP	PA	R	HR	RBI	SB	AVG
Teoscar Hernandez	19	73.2	594	78	30	87	9	.239
Max Kepler	20	185.1	654	96	30	82	7	.248
Joey Gallo	21	164.5	634	85	40	96	6	.212
Austin Meadows	22	94.9	522	70	22	65	11	.252
Jeff McNeil	23	90.0	665	89	19	75	8	.284
Anthony Santander	24	158.5	639	82	30	90	5	.262
Eddie Rosario	25	114.1	574	72	28	88	5	.275

McNeil and Rosario are the only hopes of good batting average here, as there are lots of high strikeout rates and low walk rates here. Gallo is the most interesting name after his price has completely bottomed out after his brutal 2020 season, but getting a guy with 40 projected homers way down at pick 165 is pretty interesting, especially for an OBP league.

I really like the upside of Hernandez and Kepler, and Meadows feels too cheap after his injury-riddled 2020 season. This isn't a very far step down from the previous tier, so it makes sense to wait a bit in the draft and grab one of these names to add to your outfield.

Favorite: Kepler (just way too cheap)
Too Cheap: Kepler / Meadows
Too Expensive: Hernandez
Upside: Hernandez
Biggest Risk: Gallo

Tier 6

Player			Current Projections
Name	Rank	ADP	PA	R	HR	RBI	SB	AVG
Ian Happ	26	163.1	594	83	27	75	9	.241
Andrew McCutchen	27	198.4	636	91	26	72	9	.246
Randy Arozarena	28	57.7	614	78	24	77	20	.257
Byron Buxton	29	115.4	531	73	25	77	18	.261
Lourdes Gurriel Jr.	30	84.4	577	75	27	86	8	.269
Wil Myers	31	129.6	598	76	26	79	13	.236
Mike Yastrzemski	32	137.9	664	86	22	74	8	.245
Ramon Laureano	33	142.7	621	76	22	75	11	.248
Tommy Pham	34	126.6	548	79	21	70	14	.267
Kyle Schwarber	35	193.6	516	78	33	83	4	.247
Michael Brantley	36	155.1	606	77	19	82	5	.283
Ryan Mountcastle	37	149.7	578	70	26	82	3	.276
Dominic Smith	38	106.2	552	68	22	74	3	.252
Dylan Carlson	39	149.2	526	62	17	63	11	.250
Jesse Winker	40	210.1	469	64	19	61	3	.272

It gets pretty tough to rank at this point, as there are just so many outfielders out there all doing different things. The stand-outs here are Arozarena, who the projections and myself believe to be the most overvalued player in drafts this year. Pham and Schwarber also feel pretty cheap here, and there's some big-time upside with guys like Buxton, Mountcastle, Smith, and Carlson.

Favorite: Laureano
Too Cheap: Schwarber / Laureano
Too Expensive: Arozarena
Upside: Buxton / Aronzarena
Biggest Risk: Gurriel

Tier 7

Player			Current Projections
Name	Rank	ADP	PA	R	HR	RBI	SB	AVG
Garrett Hampson	41	265.2	228	26	4	23	9	.253
Jarred Kelenic	42	217.6	309	34	10	35	7	.238
Nick Senzel	43	277.7	455	56	14	50	13	.249
Trey Mancini	44	182.6	546	71	24	73	2	.262
Raimel Tapia	45	261.2	557	65	10	56	14	.276
AJ Pollock	46	201.7	545	71	26	77	7	.247
Victor Robles	47	158.6	594	73	17	68	21	.249
Mitch Haniger	48	275.6	607	79	25	70	7	.241
Alex Verdugo	49	127.8	588	79	16	70	7	.293
Aaron Hicks	50	280.7	611	83	24	76	8	.236

Playing time questions come up here, but there's plenty of upside to be had. Hampson could be a 30 steal guy, Senzel could turn it around and fulfill some of that prospect promise, and who knows maybe Haniger will get back to doing what he was doing before the disastrous two years he's had with injuries.

Favorite: Mancini
Too Cheap: Mancini
Too Expensive: Robles
Upside: Senzel / Hampson
Biggest Risk: Haniger / Robles

Tier 8

Player			Current Projections
Name	Rank	ADP	PA	R	HR	RBI	SB	AVG
Randal Grichuk	51	200.5	382	50	20	58	2	.245
Jurickson Profar	52	225.6	374	46	13	46	7	.246
Jon Berti	53	260.2	417	47	7	36	17	.244
Alex Kirilloff	54	271.4	420	52	13	53	6	.275
Manuel Margot	55	260.9	425	48	10	45	18	.251
Mauricio Dubon	56	283.5	447	50	11	51	9	.269
David Peralta	57	274.2	566	68	19	73	2	.270
Leody Taveras	58	201.7	541	63	12	49	20	.247
Victor Reyes	59	198.2	562	66	11	54	17	.273
Austin Hays	60	227.1	528	64	22	66	11	.255
Mark Canha	61	265.9	594	74	22	75	4	.245
Kole Calhoun	62	258.3	600	75	24	74	4	.232
Bryan Reynolds	63	291.9	603	73	18	70	6	.265
Clint Frazier	64	184.8	565	72	24	77	6	.246
Hunter Dozier	65	235.1	622	74	20	77	5	.245
Kyle Lewis	66	131.4	650	72	23	76	6	.232
Lorenzo Cain	67	247.7	614	75	13	57	16	.259
Andrew Benintendi	68	230.0	580	78	15	64	12	.259
Brandon Nimmo	69	257.1	623	86	18	63	9	.240

This is basically just "the rest." You're going to go here for a bench guy and you'll probably be looking for some specific category while you're after it. There's steals upside here (Berti, Margot, Taveras), along with some raw power (Grichuk, Kiriloff, Frazier), and a handful of boring but safe plays as well (Peralta, Canha, Cain). There are also a couple guys that really shoot up the rankings in OBP leagues (Canha and Nimmo). So this is a pretty diverse group of players, all with good chances of being fantasy-relevant, and they need to be rostered in five-outfielder leagues.

Favorite: Canha
Too Cheap: Taveras (late steals, he should at least get a shot at being the lead-off hitter)
Too Expensive: Reyes
Upside: Frazier
Biggest Risk: Kiriloff

Those are the ranks, thanks for reading!

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