RADIO
Welcome, RotoBallers. Hockey is one of my favorite sports to watch and play from a DFS perspective and I am thrilled to be covering this sport over at RotoBaller! As always, I will do my best to give you the stats and info you need to build the best lineups possible for your GPP and cash game NHL contests on DraftKings and FanDuel.
If you are new to playing NHL DFS, there are several things to know that will help you get caught up to speed. The first thing to know is that stacking lines is important and correlating your plays can pay off. In hockey, if someone scores a goal, there's a good chance that some on his team will receive an assist on that goal, so you want to build lineups around players skating together. The second thing is to make sure you look at the two sites and see the different ways to obtain points. On DraftKings, you get bonus points for 5+ shots or 3+ blocked shots so someone like Alex Ovechkin who is a volume shooter tends to be a better play there just because he can rack up additional points based on his style of play.
Today I'll be bringing you my NHL lineup picks, analysis and advice for NHL DFS contests on DraftKings for Tuesday, August 11th, 2020 at 3:00 PM. Be sure to also check out our awesome NHL tools including our Lineup Optimizer, Research Station, Projections, and DFS Cheat Sheets! Feel free to follow me on Twitter @jorgepucks as I am happy to engage with readers and try to answer your questions. Good luck RotoBallers!
NHL DFS Analysis and Picks for 8/11
- Columbus Blue Jackets (+155) vs. Tampa Bay Lightning (-175)
- Calgary Flames (-110) vs. Dallas Stars (-110)
- Carolina Hurricanes (+115) vs. Boston Bruins (-135)
- Chicago Blackhawks (+165) vs. Vegas Golden Knights (-190)
NHL DFS Goalie Analysis Matrix
| Team | Rank GA | Rank SA | Rank GF | Rank SF | Total |
| Calgary | 27 | 11 | 30 | 11 | 17 |
| Vegas | 11 | 31 | 29 | 1 | 15 |
| Carolina | 29 | 17 | 27 | 9 | 17.5 |
| Tampa Bay | 6 | 19 | 22 | 29 | 7.25 |
| Boston | 1 | 29 | 20 | 4 | 16.5 |
| Chicago | 19 | 2 | 15 | 3 | 15.5 |
| Dallas | 10 | 15 | 11 | 19 | 16.5 |
| Columbus | 16 | 27 | 2 | 2 | 23.5 |
The matrix above takes the averages of four categories and creates a rating scale to help you decide which goalies to use, which goalies to target against and conversely which teams could be viable from a stacking standpoint. It looks at four categories: Goals Allowed (GA), Shots Allowed (SA), Goals For (GF), Shots For (SF). The higher the overall rating in the last column indicates that it is a more dangerous matchup for that team's goalie while it might be beneficial to stack against him. I match and sync this every day to the actual opponents so for example, the Islanders GA and SA will get matched with the Panthers GF and SF.
| Matchups | PP % Rank | Opp PK % |
| Columbus | 30 | 23 |
| Tampa Bay | 27 | 16 |
| Calgary | 1 | 28 |
| Dallas | 8 | 14 |
| Carolina | 5 | 6 |
| Boston | 7 | 8 |
| Chicago | 25 | 30 |
| Vegas | 11 | 17 |
The Power Play matrix is to help locate matchups that can be exploited should there be an odd-man advantage during the game. Just like the goalie matrix above, the teams are matched up based on their own power play percentage rank and their opponent's penalty kill percentage. When looking at this matrix, you will want to look for teams that succeed in the power play rank while their opponent has a poor penalty kill rank.
NHL DFS Core Four
The Core 4 picks are to help you construct your cash game lineups while also giving you plays that you can use and build around in GPPs. Stacking is critical in NHL DFS so you might want to pair these suggestions with a linemate or two, especially when building your tournament lineups.
1) DFS Center: William Karlsson ($5,500 DK/ $6,100 FD)
Wild Bill Karlsson looks to be in a prime spot in this series against Chicago. The Blackhawks are coming off of a series where they had to face elite centers such as Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl who were tough to handle. Now, I am not saying Karlsson is an elite center, but they will have their hands filled with lines that consist of Karlsson, Stone, Pacioretty, and Marchessault. With Karlsson getting time on both the top line and top powerplay line against a Blackhawks team that ranked in the bottom third of goals allowed, it seems to be a prime spot to lock him into your lineups for both cash games and tournaments.
Other Top Center Plays:
- Brayden Point ($6,100/ $7,400 FD)
- Sebastian Aho ($6,900 DK/ $8,100 FD)
- Sean Monahan ($5,000 DK/ $7,000 FD)
2) DFS Winger: Elias Lindholm ($5,300 DK/ $5,600 FD)
Lindholm looks to be one of the better overall values on the slate based on his price points on both sites. He sees time on both the top Flames line and top power-play line and has seen over 18 minutes of ice-time in each postseason game so far. One thing that sticks out in a positive way when talking about Lindholm is his play against Dallas this season. In three regular-season games, Lindholm has racked up four total points (one goal, three assists) and has averaged 13.2 DK points per game against them. While he might not have the highest upside from the winger spot, he does provide a solid floor that can be good in all formats.
Other Top Winger Plays:
- David Pastrnak ($7,800/ $8,600 FD)
- Max Pacioretty ($6,500/ $7,600 FD)
- Jonathan Marchessault ($6,000 / $6,800 FD)
3) DFS Defenseman: Shea Theodore ($6,500 DK / $5,900 FD)
Theodore has really shown his upside over his last two games played. He has taken 11 shots and averaged close to 24 minutes of ice time during that span so he will get opportunities to rack up fantasy points. One positive for Theodore is that he has been very active and it's paying off since he has collected four points over his last three games played in the postseason. Theodore should see plenty of action trying to contain Patrick Kane and Jonathan Toews so he does have shot on goal and shot-blocking upside in this series.
Other Defenseman Plays:
- Zach Werenski ($5,500 DK/ $6,100 FD)
- Mark Giordano ($6,100 DK/ $5,600 FD)
- Seth Jones ($5,700 DK/ $4,900 FD)
4) DFS Goalie: Marc-Andre Fleury ($8,200 DK/ $8,300 FD)
This should be an exciting matchup between Vegas and Chicago. Both of these offenses rank in the top three when it comes to shots taken since the all-star break which means the goaltenders could be busy and see a decent amount of action. Fleury has had solid success against Chicago this year as he has gone 2-1 against them with a 2.29 goals allowed average and a .920 save percentage. While Chicago has been clicking on all cylinders offensively, Vegas has also flexed their muscles in the postseason by winning all of its games and earning the top spot in the Western Conference. Fleury looks to be viable in all formats and a top option on the slate.
Other Goalie Options:
- Andrei Vasilevskiy ($8,300 DK/ $8,900 FD)
DFS Value Plays: Center
- Mikael Backlund ($5,100 DK/ $5,500 FD)
- Vincent Trocheck ($4,500 DK/ $5,000 FD)
- Kirby Dach ($3,700 DK/ $4,300 FD)
DFS Value Plays: Wing
- Martin Necas ($2,900 DK/ $3,700 FD)
- Ondrej Kase ($3,700 DK/ $3,500 FD)
- Andrew Mangiapane ($4,300 DK/ $4,600 FD)
DFS Value Plays: Defensemen
- Duncan Keith ($4,300 DK/ $5,300 FD)
- Esa Lindell ($3,800 DK/ $3,600 FD)
- Vladislav Gavrikov ($3,300/ $3,600 FD)
DFS Value Plays: Goalie
- Petr Mrazek ($7,200 DK/ $7,700 FD)
- Cam Talbot ($7,600 DK/ $7,800 FD)
Top Team and Line DFS Stacks
Vegas Golden Knights (L1/ PP1)
Vegas comes into this matchup red hot as they won all three games in the round-robin stage last week. From an offensive standpoint, they averaged five goals per game and were getting major contributions from up and down their team. They will be getting a major boost as Max Pacioretty is set to join the lineup which only provides another high-scoring threat to this squad. Chicago played well in their series against Edmonton but will face an overall tougher team in Vegas. With Vegas having the home-ice advantage, they will look to exploit the best matchup possible for their top line of Karlsson, Stone, and Pacioretty.
Calgary (L2, L1, PP1)
Calgary is a cheaper stacking option on this slate that looks to be in a solid spot. Dallas is a tough defensive squad but has struggled to find a consistent offensive rhythm throughout the postseason. Calgary has gone 2-1 against Dallas in three regular-season meetings and averaged three goals scored per game while Dallas was only able to average two goals per game. In the series against Winnipeg, Calgary was able to get production from their top three lines but they also look to have an advantage when it comes to special teams against Dallas. The Flames have the best powerplay percentage since the all-star break while Dallas sports the 28th penalty kill percentage. If you are wanting to get different, stacking their powerplay could be a way to get lower ownership but also get exposure to their top two lines.
Other Stacks that could be lower owned: Boston Bruins (L1), CAR (L1, L3), CBJ (L1)
